Try the model
USC

USC 14 at Texas 37

TEX
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:30 · Daniel Young run for 12 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:33: Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +4.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:23: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 47 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +7.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Cameron Dicker 46 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +6.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:45: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 27 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +10.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:25: Chase McGrath 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Caden Sterns Anthony Wheeler return for 46 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +9.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 8USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 6:19TEX 4th & 3 at USC 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−2.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:12USC 4th & 12 at USC 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:04TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:39TEX 4th & 8 at USC 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:14USC 4th & 1 at TEX 1, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    42.9%−2.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−7.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:19TEX 4th & 20 at TEX 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−4.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:20USC 4th & 24 at USC 38, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:30TEX 4th & 1 at USC 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−2.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00TEX 4th & 6 at USC 29, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−5.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:52USC 4th & 8 at USC 27, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:25USC 4th & 12 at TEX 32, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:25USC 4th & 7 at USC 28, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:20USC 4th & 4 at USC 36, down 23
    Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:20TEX 4th & 8 at USC 44, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:31TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 21, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:24USC 4th & 8 at TEX 25, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:48USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:33USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:23TEX Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:45TEX Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:42TEX Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0735% → 38%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
64.7%
Jones Jr., Velus rush for loss of 1 yard to the USC24, PENALTY USC illegal block (Ware, Aca'Cedric) 10 yards to the USC15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
64.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Aca'Cedric WareSimilar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+17
64.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 17 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
64.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 3 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
64.6%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 32Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+4
64.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Stephen Carr for 4 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+29
64.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 29 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
64.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Petite for no gain to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
63.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 12 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
62.3%
Stephen Carr run for 23 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 4:2663% → 63%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.8%
Watson, Tre rush for loss of 6 yards to the TEXAS19, PENALTY USC offside (Dorton, Malik) 5 yards to the TEXAS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+15
62.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 15 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
63.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 20 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
63.2%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
63.2%
Tre Watson run for no gain to the USC 28Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+5
62.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
62.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
62.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+15
62.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Andrew Beck for 15 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
62.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the USC 7Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
62.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 4 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
61.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the USC 3Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
62.9%
Cameron Dicker 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:4838% → 38%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
61.9%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Trevon SidneySimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
62.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 10 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.4%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-2
61.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 40Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
62.0%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q1 4:12
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
62.4%
Chris Tilbey punt for 44 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0862% → 61%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
61.8%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Samuel Cosmi) to the Texas 11Similar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+3
61.6%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+8
61.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 8 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
61.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Andrew BeckSimilar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 4
OWN 22
0
60.7%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:1240% → 45%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
60.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Josh Falo for 5 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+4
60.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 4 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+1
60.0%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
59.7%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+40
59.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 40 yds to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
59.3%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the Texas 3Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
59.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q1 0:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
54.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1055% → 62%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
54.9%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Texas 20Similar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
54.6%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
54.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+23
53.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 23 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
55.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jerrod HeardSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
54.4%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+47
61.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 47 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:1641% → 40%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
58.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (Chuma Edoga) to the USC 34Similar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 15
OWN 34
0
60.2%
JT Daniels pass intercepted Kris Boyd return for no gain to the Texas 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2162% → 62%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
61.7%
Tre Watson run for 9 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+11
61.9%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Sam Ehlinger for 11 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
62.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the USC 30Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+1
62.4%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the USC 29Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
61.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+46
62.2%
Cameron Dicker 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9DOWNS
12 plays · 76 yds · 3:1640% → 43%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
60.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+16
60.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 16 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
58.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 6 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
58.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
58.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
50
0
57.4%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler PetiteSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
50
+41
57.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 41 yds to the Texas 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
55.2%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
55.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Trevon Sidney for 8 yds to the Texas 1Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the Texas 1 USC Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
57.1%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 3 USC Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 3:5560% → 57%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
59.5%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Andrew Beck) to the Texas 2Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+5
59.4%
Daniel Young run for 5 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 6
OWN 7
-6
59.2%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Porter Gustin for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 1Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 12
OWN 1
+3
58.1%
Daniel Young run for 3 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 9
OWN 4
+14
57.6%
Bujcevski, Ryan punt 35 yards to the TEXAS39, fair catch by Vaughns, Tyler, PENALTY USC roughing the kicker (Hufanga, Talanoa) 14 yards to the TEXAS18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
59.5%
Daniel Young run for 2 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-14
59.2%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Porter Gustin for a loss of 14 yards to the Texas 6Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 22
OWN 6
+2
57.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 20
OWN 8
0
56.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the Texas 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 0:4046% → 42%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
54.2%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 46Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 16
OWN 46
0
56.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 16
OWN 46
-8
56.9%
JT Daniels sacked by Gary Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 38 JT Daniels fumbled, forced by Gary Johnson, recovered by USC JT Daniels , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 24
OWN 38
0
58.3%
Chris Tilbey punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12END OF HALF
13 plays · 22 yds · 2:1062% → 66%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
61.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
61.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+9
58.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 9 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+4
60.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
61.8%
Ehlinger, Sam rush for 11 yards to the USC27, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Vahe, Patrick) 10 yards to the USC48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 20
OPP 48
0
60.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+15
59.7%
Ehlinger, Sam pass incomplete to Duvernay, Devin, PENALTY USC personal foul (Gustin, Porter) 15 yards to the USC33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
63.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
62.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+4
62.0%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
66.0%
Cameron Dicker 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 4:0565% → 80%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
65.4%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-1
65.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to D'Shawn Jamison for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+10
64.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 10 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
66.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
66.1%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+9
65.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
50
-5
67.9%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Samuel Cosmi) to the Texas 45Similar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+17
66.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 2 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Roughing Passer (Porter Gustin) to the USC 38 for a 1ST down; P. Guster ejected for TargetingSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
68.0%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+7
68.9%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
79.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 27 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4824% → 22%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.4%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
76.5%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
77.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Trevon SidneySimilar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
78.4%
Reid Budrovich punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 39 yds · 1:4280% → 81%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
80.0%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
80.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
79.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 3 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
80.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Tre WatsonSimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+29
80.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 29 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
81.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-2
81.2%
Daniel Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 17 Daniel Young fumbled, forced by C.J. Pollard, recovered by USC Christian RectorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:2020% → 12%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+53
79.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 53 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
76.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 32Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 12
OPP 32
0
77.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 12
OPP 32
0
79.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+46
88.2%
Chase McGrath 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Caden Sterns Anthony Wheeler return for 46 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5512% → 9%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Josh Falo for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
88.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 4 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
89.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 28Similar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
90.7%
Chris Tilbey punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:3393% → 98%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
50
+9
93.1%
Tre Watson run for 9 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+3
93.3%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
93.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to D'Shawn JamisonSimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
93.4%
Ehlinger, Sam pass incomplete to Duvernay, Devin, PENALTY USC pass interference (Langley, Isaiah) 15 yards to the USC23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
93.6%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 26Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+5
93.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 5 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+10
93.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Andrew Beck for 10 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
94.0%
Daniel Young run for 7 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
98.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:002% → 2%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
97.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 9 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-3
97.9%
Amon-Ra St. Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 36Similar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
98.0%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
98.1%
Reid Budrovich punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brandon Jones at the Texas 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:4098% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
98.4%
Daniel Young run for 8 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+1
98.5%
Daniel Young run for 1 yd to the Texas 33Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+9
98.5%
Daniel Young run for 9 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
98.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
98.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 12 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jerrod HeardSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
98.8%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
98.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
98.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 36 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for no gain to the USC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:471% → 1%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
98.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 7 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+4
98.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 4 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
98.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Petite for 9 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+4
98.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Trevon Sidney for 4 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+26
98.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 11 yds Amon-Ra St. Brown fumbled, forced by B.J. Foster, recovered by USC Amon-Ra St. Brown for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (B.J. Foster) to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-8
98.8%
JT Daniels sacked by Chris Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 18
50
0
98.9%
Daniels, JT pass complete to Sidney, Trevon for 9 yards to the TEXAS41, PENALTY USC illegal forward pass 0 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 18
50
+6
98.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 6 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 12
OPP 44
0
98.9%
Reid Budrovich punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Brandon Jones at the Texas 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:4999% → 99%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
99.1%
Tre Watson run for 9 yds to the Texas 15Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+2
99.2%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
99.2%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+1
99.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Texas 21Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
99.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Joshua MooreSimilar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 6
OWN 21
+22
99.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 38 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for 22 yds to the Texas 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23FUMBLE
8 plays · 2 yds · 2:031% → 1%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Stephen CarrSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+10
99.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 10 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.2%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Stephen Carr for 3 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-5
99.3%
USC Penalty, False Start (Clayton Bradley) to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+4
99.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 4 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 8
OPP 25
-10
99.4%
JT Daniels sacked by Charles Omenihu for a loss of 10 yards to the Texas 35 JT Daniels fumbled, forced by Charles Omenihu, recovered by USC Clayton Bradley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24Uncategorized
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.7%
Daniel Young run for 7 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
99.8%
Daniel Young run for 2 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+12
99.8%
Daniel Young run for 12 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:45
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 27 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q3 6:25
Chase McGrath 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Caden Sterns Anthony Wheeler return for 46 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q2 13:23
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 47 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com