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CAL

California 21 at BYU 18

BYU
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:03 · Rhett Almond punt for 41 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Home team on offense+0.2Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Pregame prior+4.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:10: Kanawai Noa 52 Yd pass from Chase Garbers (Greg Thomas Kick) — CAL win probability +14.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:07: Dayan Ghanwoloku 36 Yd Fumble Return (Skyler Southam Kick) — BYU win probability +13.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:51: Brayden El-Bakri 1 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Tanner Mangum Pass to Micah Simon for Two-Point Conversion) — BYU win probability +29.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:51: Skyler Southam kickoff for 11 yds , Jaylinn Hawkins return for no gain to the BYU 46 — CAL win probability +14.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:50: Brandon McIlwain run for 3 yds to the BYU 43 — CAL win probability +15.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:30BYU 4th & 1 at CAL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:50CAL 4th & 16 at CAL 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:03BYU 4th & 7 at CAL 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:17CAL 4th & 5 at BYU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:39BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 24, down 7
    Close callPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:53BYU 4th & 7 at CAL 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−6.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:45CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 41, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:33BYU 4th & 5 at CAL 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:10CAL 4th & 6 at midfield, up 4
    Close callPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:02BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.9
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:46CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−2.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:10BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:47BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 48, down 4
    Close callPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:42BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:37CAL 4th & 2 at BYU 20, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    82.6%−1.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−8.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:45CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 29, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:38BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 1:46CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:10CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:07BYU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:42CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:51BYU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    11.6%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1DOWNS
13 plays · 43 yds · 1:3055% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.7%
Squally Canada run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
54.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 6 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
54.7%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
54.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 13 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
55.0%
Squally Canada run for 6 yds to the CALIFORNIA 46 BYU Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 44Similar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 14
OWN 44
+2
54.9%
Tanner Mangum run for 2 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+13
54.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 13 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
55.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 3 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
55.0%
Beau Hoge run for 4 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+2
55.0%
Beau Hoge run for 2 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
54.9%
Beau Hoge run for no gain to the Cal 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
54.8%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
55.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete, broken up by Trajan PiliSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 11
OWN 31
-5
55.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, IP (-5 Yards) to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 16
OWN 26
0
55.2%
Garbers, Chase pass complete to Laird, Patrick for 16 yards to the CAL42 (PAU'U, Butch;LEE, Austin), PENALTY CAL ineligible downfield on pass 0 yards to the CAL26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 16
OWN 26
0
55.4%
Steven Coutts punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:3955% → 55%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
55.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 12 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
55.6%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Neil Pau'u, broken up by Camryn BynumSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
55.7%
Squally Canada run for 7 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+4
55.9%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
56.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
56.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
55.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Matt Bushman, broken up by Evan WeaverSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
55.4%
Rhett Almond punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:3145% → 53%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
54.8%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
54.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Ray Hudson for 9 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
54.6%
Brandon McIlwain run for 2 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
54.4%
Patrick Laird run for 10 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
54.0%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+17
54.2%
Chase Garbers run for 17 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
53.6%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
53.7%
Brandon McIlwain run for 5 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-2
53.6%
Jeremiah Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 37Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+12
54.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 12 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
47.5%
Patrick Laird 25 Yd pass from Chase Garbers (Greg Thomas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
49.6%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+5
49.5%
Squally Canada run for 5 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
49.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 3
OWN 24
+2
49.0%
Rhett Almond punt for 45 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 2 yds to the Cal 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0552% → 52%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
48.0%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
47.6%
Marcel Dancy run for 2 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
47.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton III, broken up by Chris WilcoxSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
48.3%
Steven Coutts punt for 48 yds , Michael Shelton returns for no gain to the BYU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 6:1548% → 50%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
48.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 16 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
48.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 6 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
49.6%
Squally Canada run for 5 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
49.9%
Squally Canada run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 1
50
-1
50.5%
Dylan Collie run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+2
50.0%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
50.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Dallin Holker for 5 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+9
50.6%
Aleva Hifo run for 9 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
51.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 13 yds to the Cal 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
51.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Squally CanadaSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
51.2%
Tanner Mangum run for 3 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
50.6%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
50.3%
Skyler Southam 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
49.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Patrick Laird, broken up by Sione TakitakiSimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+11
49.6%
Chase Garbers run for 11 yds to the Cal 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
49.1%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
49.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 10 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
48.3%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+3
47.4%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
47.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Jeremiah HawkinsSimilar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+43
48.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 43 yds , Michael Shelton returns for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 39 yds · 1:4548% → 50%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
48.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 6 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+9
48.5%
Squally Canada run for 9 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
48.6%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Dylan CollieSimilar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
48.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 9 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
50.1%
Squally Canada run for 3 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
50.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Gunner Romney for 18 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
51.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
51.5%
Neil Pau'u run for 5 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
51.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 5
OPP 35
-11
49.5%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Alex Funches for a loss of 11 yards to the Cal 46 Tanner Mangum fumbled, forced by Siulagisipai Fuimaono, recovered by BYU Tanner Mangum , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
44.1%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
44.2%
Chase Garbers run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 6
50
0
44.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete, broken up by Khyiris TongaSimilar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 6
50
0
45.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Michael Shelton at the BYU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:2447% → 45%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
46.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 1 yd to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
46.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Aleva Hifo, broken up by Chris PalmerSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
45.2%
Neil Pau'u run for no gain to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 9
OWN 14
+5
45.3%
ALMOND, Rhett punt 37 yards to the CAL49, Wharton III, Vi return to the CAL49 (ANDERSON, Zayne), PENALTY CAL roughing the kicker 5 yards to the BYU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 4
OWN 19
+50
45.4%
Rhett Almond punt for 50 yds, downed at the CALIFORNIA 31 BYU Penalty, IT ( Yards) to the Cal 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
46.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 5 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+1
46.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 1 yd to the Cal 37Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-5
46.5%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
48.1%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Patrick LairdSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 9
OWN 32
-3
49.4%
Steven Coutts punt for 42 yds , Michael Shelton returns for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:1247% → 45%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
46.8%
Aleva Hifo run for 7 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 3
OWN 30
-5
46.6%
MANGUM, Tanner pass complete to HIFO, Aleva for 20 yards to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds, PENALTY BYU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the BYU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-7
44.8%
Team run for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:4453% → 69%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
47.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 5 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
46.5%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+3
47.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 3 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
46.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 6 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+3
45.1%
Brandon McIlwain run for 3 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+7
45.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 7 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
31.3%
Kanawai Noa 52 Yd pass from Chase Garbers (Greg Thomas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
33.1%
Micah Simon run for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
34.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Brayden El-BakriSimilar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
33.2%
Squally Canada run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 31Similar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
32.1%
Rhett Almond punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:3769% → 55%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
31.1%
Derrick Clark run for 5 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-36
44.8%
Dayan Ghanwoloku 36 Yd Fumble Return (Skyler Southam Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17INT
12 plays · 36 yds · 0:0054% → 57%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
46.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 5 yds to the Cal 31 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+5
46.4%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Clark, Derrick, PENALTY BYU offside 5 yards to the CAL26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
46.1%
Kanawai Noa run for 5 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+2
44.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 2 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+3
45.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 3 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
45.0%
Jeremiah Hawkins run for 20 yds to the BYU 44 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-22 Yards) to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 12
OWN 34
0
45.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah Hawkins, broken up by Lorenzo FauateaSimilar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+4
46.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 4 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+9
45.2%
Chase Garbers run for 9 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
43.5%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Duncan, Jordan, PENALTY BYU pass interference 15 yards to the BYU38, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
43.1%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted Isaiah Kaufusi return for 15 yds to the BYU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
48.3%
Squally Canada run for no gain to the BYU 43Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
46.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 1 yd to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+4
45.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Dallin Holker for 4 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
46.5%
Rhett Almond punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:5760% → 82%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
40.3%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+6
40.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 6 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+5
40.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 5 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
39.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 12 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
37.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 17 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
36.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+3
37.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 3 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+25
37.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 25 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
35.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 2 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+10
31.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 10 yds to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
31.7%
Brandon McIlwain run for 5 yds to the BYU 2Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
18.0%
Brandon McIlwain 2 Yd Run (Greg Thomas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Moroni Laulu-PututauSimilar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
20.4%
Dylan Collie run for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
20.8%
Squally Canada run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
19.4%
Rhett Almond punt for 52 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for no gain to the Cal 16 Vic Wharton III fumbled, recovered by BYU Dayan GhanwolokuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21INT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0025% → 21%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
25.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Squally Canada for 7 yds to the Cal 9Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 3
OPP 9
-3
25.2%
Squally Canada run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 12Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 6
OPP 12
-15
23.4%
MANGUM, Tanner pass complete to HIFO, Aleva for 1 yard to the CAL11 (Beck, Traveon), PENALTY BYU pass interference 15 yards to the CAL27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 21
OPP 27
+20
21.2%
Tanner Mangum pass intercepted Traveon Beck return for 20 yds to the Cal 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
14.3%
Brandon McIlwain run for no gain to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
14.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 4 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+21
14.1%
Chase Garbers run for 6 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
13.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 11 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
13.2%
Brandon McIlwain run for 5 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+2
13.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Malik McMorris for 2 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+1
13.6%
Brandon McIlwain run for 1 yd to the BYU 20Similar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 2
OPP 20
0
15.2%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
10.8%
Tanner Mangum pass intercepted Jaylinn Hawkins return for no gain to the Cal 20 CALIFORNIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Cal 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
9.8%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 19Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+6
10.0%
Kanawai Noa run for 6 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
10.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
10.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 2:479% → 41%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
9.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Squally CanadaSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
8.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Micah Simon for 11 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
9.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 4 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
10.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Lopini KatoaSimilar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-3
9.6%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Zeandae Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+24
8.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 24 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
11.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
11.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+11
10.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Gunner Romney for 11 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
13.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Micah Simon, broken up by Josh DraydenSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
13.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Dylan Collie for 5 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+20
11.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Dylan Collie for 20 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.2%
Brayden El-Bakri 1 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Tanner Mangum Pass to Micah Simon for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26Uncategorized
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:2489% → 95%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
10.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 3 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
6.0%
Brandon McIlwain run for 4 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+5
5.7%
Brandon McIlwain run for 5 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
4.8%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:51
Brayden El-Bakri 1 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Tanner Mangum Pass to Micah Simon for Two-Point Conversion)
+29.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:50
Brandon McIlwain run for 3 yds to the BYU 43
-15.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:51
Skyler Southam kickoff for 11 yds , Jaylinn Hawkins return for no gain to the BYU 46
-14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com