2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreSJSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Bryce Crawford punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WshSt 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q1 0:20: Malike Roberson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 31 — SJSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 4%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 5:48: Blake Mazza 36 yd FG GOOD — WSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:27: Timeout WASHINGTON ST, clock 00:27 — SJSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 4%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:14: Timeout WASHINGTON ST, clock 00:14 — SJSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:00: Gardner Minshew run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9SJSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 12:50SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 33, down 7Close callPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:15WSU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt96.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 5:45WSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 36, up 7Close callWent for it · 96.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.9%−<0.130% to convertField goal96.0%42% to makePunt95.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:39SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 37, down 14Close callPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 13:24SJSU 4th & 15 at SJSU 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q2 9:22SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 7, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q2 5:48WSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 19, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snapGo for it95.1%−0.227% to convertField goalTheir call95.4%77% to makePunt94.0%−1.4average punt
- Q2 5:48SJSU 4th & 25 at SJSU 20, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.96% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q2 3:13WSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 34, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.5%40% to convertField goal96.4%−0.147% to makePunt96.0%−0.5average punt
- Q2 0:14WSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 3, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.1%63% to convertField goal95.9%−0.293% to makePunt94.2%−1.9average punt
- Q3 15:00SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 29, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q3 13:44WSU 4th & 9 at WSU 26, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.9%−0.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.2%average punt
- Q3 12:41SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 38, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q3 11:39WSU 4th & 5 at midfield, up 24Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.3%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 9:04SJSU 4th & 10 at midfield, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q3 0:57WSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 37, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.0%70% to convertField goal98.7%−0.340% to makePunt98.7%−0.4average punt
- Q4 15:00SJSU 4th & 9 at midfield, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q4 10:54WSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 30, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call99.1%−<0.156% to makePunt99.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:54SJSU 4th & 17 at SJSU 40, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q4 4:39SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 42, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 12:55WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:45WSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:00WSU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:39WSU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1TD9 plays · 70 yds · 2:0597% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+3
96.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 3 yds to the WshSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+34
96.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 34 yds to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+5
96.9%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SJSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
96.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 15 yds for a TD SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
WSUDrive 3TD13 plays · 85 yds · 5:3097% → 96%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
96.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 7 yds to the WshSt 22Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+7
96.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Travell Harris for 7 yds to the WshSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
96.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Travell Harris for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
96.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 7 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+36
96.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 36 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.4%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Bailey Gaither, broken up by Darrien MoltonSimilar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+5
96.4%
CRAWFORD, Bryce punt 38 yards to the WSU30, fair catch by Sweet, Kyle, PENALTY WSU roughing the kicker (Green-Richards) 5 yards to the SJSU37, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5INT10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 4:45
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-5
96.5%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, false start (Davontavean Martin) to the WshSt 29Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+15
96.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 15 yds to the WshSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-6
96.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 4 yds to the SJSt 23 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Jamire Calvin) to the SJSt 33Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+13
96.6%
Gardner Minshew pass intercepted Jesse Osuna return for 13 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 1:564% → 4%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+15
95.9%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Josh Oliver for 15 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
96.0%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Malike Roberson for no gain to the SJSt 41Similar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 15
OWN 41
+18
95.9%
Bryce Crawford punt for 44 yds , Kyle Sweet returns for 18 yds to the WshSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7INT7 plays · 54 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
96.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Travell Harris for 7 yds to the WshSt 40Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+6
96.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for 6 yds to the WshSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
96.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Travell Harris for 19 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+1
96.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Easop Winston for 1 yd to the SJSt 31Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+3
96.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Easop Winston for 3 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
96.2%
Gardner Minshew pass intercepted Nehemiah Shelton return for no gain to the SJSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
95.7%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 3 yds Bailey Gaither fumbled, forced by Sean Harper Jr., recovered by SJSt Josh OliverSimilar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 9
OWN 7
0
95.7%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 9
OWN 7
+3
95.8%
Bryce Crawford punt for 41 yds , Kyle Sweet returns for 3 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9FG5 plays · 26 yds · 1:4796% → 97%
SJSUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · -5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.0%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 10 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-8
95.9%
Montel Aaron sacked by Taylor Comfort for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 28Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 17
OWN 28
-8
96.1%
Montel Aaron sacked by Dominick Silvels for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 20Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 25
OWN 20
+26
96.1%
Bryce Crawford punt for 60 yds , Kyle Sweet returns for 26 yds to the WshSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11TD14 plays · 54 yds · 3:1397% → 98%
Q2 3:13
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+14
96.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Renard Bell for 14 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+4
96.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Max Borghi for 4 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+22
96.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 22 yds to the SJSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
97.8%
Bryce Crawford punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WshSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
SJSUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:002% → 2%
WSUDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
SJSUDrive 16PUNT10 plays · 41 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 9:04
2ND & 9
OWN 10
-4
98.4%
Malike Roberson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 12 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Josh Oliver) to the SJSt 6Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 13
OWN 6
+5
98.5%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Will Rodgers III) to the SJSt 11Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+17
98.4%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for 17 yds to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+14
98.3%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Josh Oliver for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-6
98.3%
Montel Aaron sacked by Jahad Woods for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 10
50
0
98.4%
Bryce Crawford punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kyle Sweet at the WshSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17DOWNS11 plays · 54 yds · 4:3399% → 99%
Q3 5:30
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+19
98.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 19 yds to the WshSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
98.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 8 yds to the WshSt 39Similar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
98.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 12 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 0:491% → 1%
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
98.8%
Malike Roberson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, personal foul (Hunter Dale) to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
50
-8
98.9%
Montel Aaron sacked by Justus Rogers for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+8
99.0%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Justin Holmes for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
50
0
98.9%
Bryce Crawford punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kyle Sweet at the WshSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19MISSED FG7 plays · 60 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+27
99.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 27 yds to the WshSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
99.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 19 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
99.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Easop Winston for 10 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+1
99.5%
James Williams run for 1 yd to the SJSt 33 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the SJSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:54
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
99.1%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Josh Oliver, broken up by Jalen ThompsonSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 15
OWN 42
-3
99.1%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Malike Roberson for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 39Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+8
99.1%
Montel Aaron pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 8 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-7
99.1%
Montel Aaron sacked by - Aiolopotea-Pei for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 40Similar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 17
OWN 40
0
99.2%
Bryce Crawford punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21TD6 plays · 75 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
Q4 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+39
99.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Travell Harris for 39 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
99.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 9 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+17
99.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Renard Bell for 17 yds to the SJSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
99.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 7 yds to the SJSt 3Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:39
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+10
99.9%
BROWN, II, Bobb sacked for loss of 7 yards to the SJSU24 (Echeverria, J.), PENALTY WSU holding (Williams,Kedron) 10 yards to the SJSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23INT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
SJSUDrive 24INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
100.0%
JaQuan Blackwell pass intercepted Deion Singleton return for no gain to the WshSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
Gardner Minshew run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)
+3.1
FG · Q2 5:48
Blake Mazza 36 yd FG GOOD
+1
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:14
Timeout WASHINGTON ST, clock 00:14
-0.9