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MSU

Michigan State 13 at Arizona State 16

ASU
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:12 · Jake Hartbarger punt for 52 yds , Ryan Newsome returns for 10 yds to the ArzSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Pregame prior−2.0Home team on offense−17.2Score differential−4.3Garbage-time factor−9.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 7:48: Brandon Ruiz 49 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +7.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 1:27: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 31 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +14.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:45: Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 27 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +37.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:43: Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Jenkins for 11 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST down — ASU win probability +7.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Brandon Ruiz 28 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +31.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10MSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:46ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:10MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:47ASU 4th & 1 at MSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    41.5%−0.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:50ASU 4th & 8 at MSU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    42.6%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:19MSU 4th & 6 at ASU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:22ASU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.4%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:43ASU 4th & 13 at MSU 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    40.8%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:50MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:37MSU 4th & 5 at ASU 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    49.9%−9.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:48ASU 4th & 6 at MSU 31, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.9%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:18MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−4.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:42ASU 4th & 23 at ASU 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−7.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:19ASU 4th & 6 at MSU 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−8.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:41MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:08ASU 4th & 10 at MSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:12MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:55MSU 4th & 23 at MSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−11.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00ASU 4th & 10 at MSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−9.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−35.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 1:27MSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 8:45ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0437% → 37%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
36.9%
N'Keal Harry run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
37.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 4 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
37.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
37.2%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3063% → 62%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
37.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 16 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
37.5%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
37.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+3
37.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 3 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+4
38.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 48 yds , Brandon Aiyuk returns for 4 yds to the ArzSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3PUNT
15 plays · 42 yds · 6:1538% → 40%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
37.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 5 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
38.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+11
38.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 11 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
38.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 4 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+6
39.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
39.2%
Isaiah Floyd run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+8
39.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 8 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
39.6%
Isaiah Floyd run for no gain to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+3
39.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
40.0%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+1
39.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 1 yd to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 12
OPP 44
-5
39.8%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Roy Hemsley) to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 17
OPP 49
-10
39.8%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ceejhay French-Love) to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 27
OWN 41
+19
39.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 19 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
40.2%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 39 yds, downed at the MchSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FG
14 plays · 80 yds · 7:2660% → 60%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
40.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+3
40.4%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+19
41.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 19 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
40.6%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
40.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 6 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
40.0%
Connor Heyward run for 11 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
39.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 13 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
39.6%
Jalen Nailor run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+6
39.2%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
39.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 7 yds to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+2
39.3%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 1
OPP 14
0
40.0%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 1
OPP 14
-5
40.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
39.7%
Matt Coghlin 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:4441% → 42%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
40.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 11 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-9
40.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 19
OWN 19
-1
40.4%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 20
OWN 18
+23
39.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 23 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
42.5%
Isaiah Floyd run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
42.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Ceejhay French-LoveSimilar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+7
41.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 1
50
-1
42.1%
Manny Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6INT
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:5261% → 63%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
38.8%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
38.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+18
39.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 18 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
38.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+7
38.2%
Connor Heyward run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+8
37.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 8 yds to the ArzSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
37.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 13 yds to the ArzSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
37.0%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+16
37.0%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Dasmond Tautalatasi return for 16 yds to the ArzSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 43 yds · 3:3240% → 41%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
40.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+13
40.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 13 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
41.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 8 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 2
OWN 40
-1
43.2%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+10
43.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 10 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
44.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Terrell ChatmanSimilar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+13
44.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
45.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-1
45.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 39Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 11
OPP 39
-2
42.9%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Joe Bachie for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
41.0%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:4459% → 59%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+21
41.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 21 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
39.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to LJ ScottSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
40.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 4 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
39.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
40.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brandon Aiyuk at the ArzSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9INT
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:5140% → 44%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
39.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 11 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
40.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
40.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Newsome for 9 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
42.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
43.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Terrell ChatmanSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+16
43.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 16 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3059% → 58%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
41.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 11
-1
41.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 5:1861% → 67%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.5%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
38.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 11 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
37.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 2 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+8
37.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
50
+23
37.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 23 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
36.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
36.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+12
37.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 12 yds to the ArzSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
36.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+7
36.2%
Jalen Nailor run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 2
OPP 7
-3
37.5%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
32.6%
Matt Coghlin 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 1:4236% → 45%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+18
38.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 18 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
41.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Jenkins for 13 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
43.0%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-10
43.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Casey Tucker) to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 20
OPP 45
0
39.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 20
OPP 45
+14
37.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 14 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
44.9%
Brandon Ruiz 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:2560% → 57%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
40.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
41.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Luke Campbell) to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
41.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
43.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 74 yds, downed at the ArzSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3042% → 40%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
42.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Newsome for 14 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
42.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 7 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
43.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 7 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
43.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-2
44.5%
Manny Wilkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 34
-13
41.1%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Tre Person for a loss of 13 yards to the ArzSt 21 Manny Wilkins fumbled, forced by Tre Person, recovered by ArzSt Manny Wilkins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 23
OWN 21
0
39.9%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:0861% → 80%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
39.0%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
37.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
36.7%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Aashari Crosswell) to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
36.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 15 yds to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
34.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+9
34.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 16 for a 1ST down La'Darius Jefferson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-15
34.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Collin Lucas) to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 25
OPP 31
+31
19.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 31 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 1:5623% → 32%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
22.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
22.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Terrell ChatmanSimilar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+29
22.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 14 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Josh Butler) to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
25.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 16 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
27.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Newsome for 22 yds to the MchSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
27.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the MchSt 6Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
27.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q4 14:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
25.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q4 14:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
32.0%
Brandon Ruiz 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:3475% → 74%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
24.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 9 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
23.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matt Allen) to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+9
24.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 9 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+6
23.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 6 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
22.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 5
OWN 42
-5
24.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
26.0%
TEAM punt for 20 yds, downed at the ArzSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:2831% → 29%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
31.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
33.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
32.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Ryan NewsomeSimilar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
30.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
28.5%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 44 yds, downed at the MchSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4974% → 78%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+14
25.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 14 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
23.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+4
21.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 4 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
20.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+10
22.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 52 yds , Ryan Newsome returns for 10 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:1727% → 64%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+38
26.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 38 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
63.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 27 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:4549% → 47%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
50.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
50.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 8 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
49.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 22 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
44.2%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Darius Slade and Merlin Robertson for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 15
OPP 47
-19
46.7%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Merlin Robertson for a loss of 19 yards to the MchSt 34 Brian Lewerke fumbled, forced by Merlin Robertson, recovered by MchSt Jordan Reid , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 34
OWN 34
+16
52.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 16 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 18
50
-5
51.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Byron Bullough) to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 23
OWN 45
-2
52.6%
Rocky Lombardi punt for 32 yds , Ryan Newsome returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22END OF GAME
18 plays · 69 yds · 4:5057% → 96%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
57.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
57.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+25
54.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 25 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
62.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Jenkins for 11 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
63.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
63.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Eno BenjaminSimilar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+12
61.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Justin Layne) to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
66.3%
Manny Wilkins run for 13 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
66.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+4
67.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
67.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 7Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
67.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 8Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
65.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 10Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
95.5%
Brandon Ruiz 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:45
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 27 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+37
FG · Q4 0:00
Brandon Ruiz 28 yd FG GOOD
+31.9
TD · Q3 1:27
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 31 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com