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ARIZ

Arizona 18 at Houston 45

HOU
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:05 · Dylan Klumph punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Home team on offense+6.6Score differential+3.7Garbage-time factor+0.7Blowout margin+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Pregame prior+5.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:29: D'Eriq King run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +2.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:43: D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 52 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +5.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 12:38: Dalton Witherspoon 35 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +2.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:44: D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for 13 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +6.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:05: Khalil Tate run for 2 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik PAT MISSED) — ARIZ win probability +1.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ARIZ made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 5:55ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 29, down 14
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:00HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.1%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:05ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:39HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 19, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:30ARIZ 4th & 12 at HOU 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:38HOU 4th & 12 at ARIZ 18, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−1.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:39ARIZ 4th & 1 at HOU 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.1%−1.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−6.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:17HOU 4th & 3 at ARIZ 46, up 24
    Close callPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:37ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:20ARIZ 4th & 17 at HOU 45, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−<0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:18HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 47, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:44ARIZ 4th & 11 at ARIZ 31, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:10HOU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 40, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:21HOU 4th & 6 at ARIZ 15, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:16ARIZ 4th & 14 at HOU 31, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:58HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 34, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:27HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 29, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:08HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 30, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:41ARIZ 4th & 1 at HOU 1, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−2.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:05ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 45, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:13HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:29HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:43HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:44HOU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:09HOU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:11ARIZ Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:05ARIZ Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    1.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:48HOU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 2:3656% → 58%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
56.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+10
56.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 10 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
56.5%
Patrick Carr run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+16
56.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 16 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
56.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 19 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
56.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
56.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 11 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
56.9%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
56.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for 5 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+24
57.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 24 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2INT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:4742% → 41%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
57.7%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 10Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+2
57.9%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Ariz 12Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+30
58.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 30 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
58.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-3
58.0%
Khalil Tate run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+20
58.7%
Khalil Tate pass intercepted Garrett Davis return for 20 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:4160% → 63%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+39
59.7%
Patrick Carr run for 39 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.7%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the Ariz 1Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.8%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the Ariz 1Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.7%
D'Eriq King run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:2539% → 36%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
61.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 4 yds to the Ariz 24 ARIZONA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 14Similar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 16
OWN 14
+1
62.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 1 yd to the Ariz 15Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+14
62.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 14 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
62.9%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
63.7%
Dylan Klumph punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:0665% → 71%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
64.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
64.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for 7 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
65.4%
Bryson Smith run for 2 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
65.3%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
70.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 52 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:2530% → 30%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
69.5%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
69.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony Ellison, broken up by Emeke EgbuleSimilar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
70.1%
Dylan Klumph punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1970% → 70%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
70.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
70.5%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
70.2%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
69.9%
Dane Roy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8MISSED FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:0029% → 25%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
71.5%
Gary Brightwell run for 7 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
71.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
50
0
72.0%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
50
+5
72.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+12
73.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 12 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
73.1%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-4
73.7%
Khalil Tate run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 12
OPP 35
0
74.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 12
OPP 35
+53
75.2%
Lucas Havrisik 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:4876% → 83%
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
76.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Romello BrookerSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
75.7%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+16
75.8%
D'Eriq King run for 16 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
77.5%
D'Eriq King run for 11 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
78.2%
Bryson Smith pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
78.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 6 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
80.3%
Mulbah Car run for 10 yds to the Ariz 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
80.6%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 18Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 12
OPP 18
0
81.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 12
OPP 18
0
80.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+35
82.6%
Dalton Witherspoon 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10FUMBLE
10 plays · 49 yds · 2:5620% → 19%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
79.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 9 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 1
OWN 25
0
79.5%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+4
80.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+23
80.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 23 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
80.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 13 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
79.7%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
80.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+3
80.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 9:39
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-6
81.1%
Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 35 Gary Brightwell fumbled, recovered by Ariz Gary Brightwell Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:1886% → 87%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
86.1%
Patrick Carr run for 12 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
86.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
86.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Romello BrookerSimilar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+7
87.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 7 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
87.1%
Dane Roy punt for 41 yds, downed at the Ariz 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 2:2316% → 14%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+12
84.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 12 yds to the Ariz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
83.7%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 17Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
84.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ariz 22Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+2
83.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 2 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+4
84.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 4 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
84.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cedric Peterson, broken up by Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
85.1%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+5
85.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, Neutral Zone Infraction (Ed Oliver) to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
84.6%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
85.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:4889% → 96%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
88.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+22
88.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 22 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
89.9%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 7
50
0
89.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 7
50
+24
89.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 24 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
89.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Dereck Boles) to the Ariz 21Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 5
OPP 21
+7
89.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Terry Mark for 7 yds to the Ariz 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
89.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 1 yd to the Ariz 13Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
96.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for 13 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 2:105% → 2%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
95.1%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+18
96.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 18 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
96.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 13 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
96.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
96.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-10
97.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tony Ellison) to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 17
OPP 45
0
97.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 17
OPP 45
0
97.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 44 yds, downed at the Houst 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 46 yds · 0:5297% → 97%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+25
97.3%
Terence Williams run for 25 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
97.2%
Dormady, Quinten pass incomplete to Smith, Bryson, PENALTY ARIZONA pass interference 15 yards to the HOUSTON41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
97.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Bryson Smith for 4 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
97.4%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+2
97.4%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
97.3%
Dane Roy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:082% → 2%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
97.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
97.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 5 yds to the Ariz 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:013% → 2%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
97.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 10 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
98.0%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
98.1%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
98.2%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 11
OWN 31
0
98.2%
Dylan Klumph punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 1:3298% → 99%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.1%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Romello BrookerSimilar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
98.1%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete to Lark, Courtney, PENALTY ARIZONA pass interference (Burns, Lorenzo) 15 yards to the ARIZONA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
98.2%
Patrick Carr run for 10 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
98.3%
Mulbah Car run for 18 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
98.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Finton Connolly) to the Ariz 16Similar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 5
OPP 16
0
98.5%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-2
98.6%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 18Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+18
98.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 18 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19INT
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:041% → 1%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.1%
Gary Brightwell run for 4 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+9
99.1%
Gary Brightwell run for 9 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.1%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
99.1%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tre Adams, broken up by Garrett DavisSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+25
99.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 25 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.1%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
99.1%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Devaughn CooperSimilar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+24
99.2%
Khalil Tate pass intercepted Garrett Davis return for 24 yds to the Houst 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20MISSED FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:0999% → 100%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
99.2%
Terence Williams run for 15 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.3%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Ariz 48Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+4
99.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Terry Mark for 4 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+4
99.3%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q3 8:10
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+6
99.3%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
99.4%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete to Smith, Bryson, PENALTY ARIZONA pass interference (Hearn, Azizi) 15 yards to the ARIZONA19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
99.4%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 20Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+5
99.4%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
99.5%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the Ariz 15Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
99.5%
Dalton Witherspoon 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 2:590% → 0%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
99.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
99.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+28
99.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 28 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
99.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 11 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
99.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-10
99.7%
Tate, Khalil pass incomplete to Ellison, Tony, PENALTY ARIZONA holding (McCauley, Josh) 10 yards to the HOUSTON35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 18
OPP 35
+4
99.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 14
OPP 31
0
99.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 14
OPP 31
+49
99.7%
Lucas Havrisik 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Houst 20Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
99.6%
Kevrin Justice run for 1 yd to the Houst 21Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
99.6%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Terry MarkSimilar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+13
99.6%
Kevrin Justice run for 13 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.7%
Dane Roy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
99.8%
Tate, Khalil pass incomplete to Brown, Shun, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference 12 yards to the ARIZONA38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA.Similar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
99.8%
Darrius Smith run for 14 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
99.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 8 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+19
99.8%
Khalil Tate run for 4 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
99.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 18 yds to the Houst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.7%
Darrius Smith run for 2 yds to the Houst 1Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Darrius Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Julon Williams for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 24Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
99.7%
Mulbah Car run for 5 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 14:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q4 14:27
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+45
99.8%
Dane Roy punt for 45 yds , Shun Brown returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:100% → 2%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Darrius Smith run for 7 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+14
99.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 14 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.8%
Darrius Smith run for 3 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+20
99.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 20 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 1 yd to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+12
99.9%
Darrius Smith run for 12 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
99.9%
Darrius Smith run for 11 yds to the Houst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
99.9%
Darrius Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 11Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
99.9%
Tate, Khalil pass incomplete to Berryhill III, Stanley, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference 9 yards to the HOUSTON2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA.Similar
Q4 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.5%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4799% → 99%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.9%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
98.9%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
99.0%
Terence Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 9:08
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
98.9%
Dane Roy punt for 39 yds , Shun Brown returns for 15 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:191% → 1%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.0%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
99.0%
Khalil Tate run for 7 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+46
99.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 46 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.7%
Darrius Smith run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.8%
Darrius Smith run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.0%
Khalil Tate run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.2%
Gary Brightwell run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-1
99.2%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.3%
Darrius Smith run for 5 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+13
99.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 13 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
99.3%
Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
99.3%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
99.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q4 5:05
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
99.4%
Dylan Klumph punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 30TD
6 plays · 95 yds · 3:0799% → 100%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
99.4%
Kevrin Justice run for 3 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+3
99.4%
Kevrin Justice run for 3 yds to the Houst 11Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+60
99.5%
Marquez Stevenson run for 60 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
99.6%
Kevrin Justice run for 20 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.6%
Kevrin Justice run for 5 yds to the Ariz 4Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
D'Eriq King run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 31END OF GAME
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
100.0%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Jamie Nunley for 11 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
100.0%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Jamie Nunley for 10 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
100.0%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Darrius Smith for 3 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+16
100.0%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 16 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
100.0%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incomplete to Stanley Berryhill IIISimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-2
100.0%
Rhett Rodriguez sacked by Derek Parish for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:44
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for 13 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q1 4:43
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 52 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q1 8:29
D'Eriq King run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+2.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com