Try the model
UNC

North Carolina 17 at California 24

CAL
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · California Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:32 · Hunter Lent punt for 51 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 2 yds to the Cal 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Home team on offense+2.3Pregame prior+13.5Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:51: Nathan Elliott pass intercepted for a TD Cameron Goode return for 38 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +5.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:22: Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 4 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +7.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:31: Antonio Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +6.8 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:13: Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +13.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:10: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 38 — CAL win probability +7.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 9 of 13UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:34CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:21UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:48CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:38UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 7:13CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:32UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00CAL 4th & 3 at UNC 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:46UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:51CAL 4th & 2 at UNC 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%−1.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:43CAL 4th & 14 at UNC 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    74.2%−5.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:33CAL 4th & 1 at UNC 41, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    83.9%−2.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−2.8
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:33CAL 4th & 8 at UNC 36, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−0.2
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:55UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:46CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 40, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 14 at CAL 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−3.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 13:40UNC 4th & 2 at CAL 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−2.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−2.2
    average punt
  18. Q3 13:40UNC 4th & 12 at CAL 36, down 17
    Close callPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    12.8%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q3 5:55CAL 4th & 10 at UNC 30, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−1.1
    average punt
  20. Q3 4:39UNC 4th & 10 at CAL 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−5.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 14:55CAL 4th & 19 at UNC 37, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 12:35UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 12:35UNC 4th & 5 at CAL 20, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−1.8
    average punt
  24. Q4 4:06CAL 4th & 2 at UNC 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%−0.8
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 2:40CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:51CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:22CAL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:31UNC Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.8%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:13UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.1%
Dazz Newsome run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
67.1%
Antonio Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
67.1%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
67.1%
Hunter Lent punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
66.9%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+6
66.9%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
66.9%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
66.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
66.7%
Antonio Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+8
66.8%
Antonio Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
66.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antonio Williams for no gain to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 12:21
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+4
66.8%
Hunter Lent punt for 50 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 4 yds to the Cal 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+20
66.6%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-9
66.7%
Ross Bowers sacked by Jonathan Smith and Jalen Dalton for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 24Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 19
OWN 24
0
66.6%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 19
OWN 24
+19
66.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 19 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
67.0%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
66.9%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+3
66.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 3 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
66.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
66.0%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
66.0%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
66.3%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
66.5%
Hunter Lent punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
66.7%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
66.8%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-2
66.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
65.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 35 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for no gain to the NCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
65.7%
Antonio Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 17Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+1
65.8%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 18Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+10
66.1%
Nathan Elliott pass intercepted Jaylinn Hawkins return for 10 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:3567% → 71%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
67.0%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-5
67.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
67.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Patrick LairdSimilar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+15
66.5%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Duncan, Jordan, PENALTY NC pass interference (Dorn, M) 15 yards to the NC9, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
67.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Malik McMorris for 6 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.9%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
69.5%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
69.5%
Antonio Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 10Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 8
OWN 10
0
69.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 8
OWN 10
+2
70.1%
Hunter Lent punt for 51 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 2 yds to the Cal 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:3871% → 70%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
70.6%
Chase Garbers run for 4 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-1
70.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 44Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+15
70.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Malik Carney) to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
70.8%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
70.8%
Chase Garbers run for 4 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+3
70.9%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 34
-1
70.2%
Chase Garbers sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11INT TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3231% → 25%
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
69.5%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
69.1%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+38
74.9%
Nathan Elliott pass intercepted for a TD Cameron Goode return for 38 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.1%
Nathan Elliott run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.1%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
75.3%
Antonio Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
75.5%
Hunter Lent punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 5:0877% → 83%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
77.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 10 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
78.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 38Similar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+5
77.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 5 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+19
78.0%
Patrick Laird run for 19 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
78.3%
Ross Bowers run for 6 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
78.3%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+2
77.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 2 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+16
77.4%
Patrick Laird run for 16 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
78.3%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the NCaro 14Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-4
78.3%
Ross Bowers sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 14
OPP 18
0
77.6%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 14
OPP 18
+35
83.1%
Greg Thomas 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.1%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
81.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 7 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.7%
Nathan Elliott pass intercepted Ashtyn Davis return for no gain to the Cal 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 36 yds · 3:0785% → 87%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
84.5%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+9
84.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 9 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
84.9%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+5
85.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
50
+7
85.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 7 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
85.0%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
84.6%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+3
86.6%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
87.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
87.4%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
87.1%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
86.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:1715% → 15%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
85.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antonio Williams for no gain to the NCaro 12Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
85.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 4 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+1
84.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 1 yd to the NCaro 17Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 5
OWN 17
+1
85.1%
Hunter Lent punt for 44 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 1 yd to the Cal 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
88.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Patrick Laird, broken up by Cole HolcombSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
88.7%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
88.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Patrick LairdSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+1
87.5%
Steven Coutts punt for 35 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
84.4%
Nathan Elliott run for 5 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, delay of game (Chase Garbers) to the Cal 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
85.8%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-1
85.8%
Chase Garbers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
85.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+27
84.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 54 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 27 yds to the Cal 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 12 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
84.9%
Antonio Williams run for 3 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-5
85.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Dyami Brown) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 12
50
+5
85.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Javonte Williams for 5 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+5
85.2%
Nathan Elliott run for 5 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+6
85.3%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams run for 6 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
83.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
84.1%
Nathan Elliott run for 8 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 2
OPP 26
-5
84.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
85.1%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Roscoe Johnson, broken up by Ashtyn DavisSimilar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 7
OPP 31
-5
85.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Jay-Jay McCargo) to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
86.3%
Hunter Lent punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21MISSED FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:0890% → 92%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
90.1%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+10
90.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 10 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
90.3%
Chase Garbers run for 9 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
90.5%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
90.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 8 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+7
90.8%
Chase Garbers run for 7 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
90.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Maurice Ways for 23 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
91.0%
Derrick Clark run for 1 yd to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-1
91.0%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
90.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Patrick LairdSimilar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
91.9%
Greg Thomas 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22FG
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:169% → 13%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+44
90.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 44 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
89.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete, broken up by Luc BequetteSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
89.8%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
90.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Camryn BynumSimilar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
86.8%
Freeman Jones 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 4:0990% → 98%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
89.7%
Chase Garbers run for 6 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+8
89.7%
Vic Wharton III run for 8 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
89.7%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Hawkins, Jeremi (Richardson, B), PENALTY NC pass interference (Richardson, B) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
50
+9
90.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 9 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+17
90.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 17 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
90.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Malik McMorris, broken up by Jason StrowbridgeSimilar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
90.4%
Patrick Laird run for 8 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-5
90.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+17
90.1%
Chase Garbers run for 17 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
90.4%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
90.4%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 4Similar
Q3 0:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 4 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:152% → 2%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
97.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Carl TuckerSimilar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+10
97.9%
Nathan Elliott run for 10 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
97.9%
Nathan Elliott pass intercepted Jaylinn Hawkins return for no gain to the NCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
98.3%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
98.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 4 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+4
98.2%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
98.3%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-9
98.3%
Chase Garbers sacked by Jonathan Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 37Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 19
OPP 37
0
98.1%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 19
OPP 37
0
97.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26TD
20 plays · 92 yds · 6:041% → 8%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
98.6%
Dazz Newsome run for 7 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+2
98.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 2 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+21
98.5%
Jordon Brown run for 21 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Carl TuckerSimilar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
98.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Javonte Williams for 7 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
98.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:35
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+5
98.5%
Nathan Elliott run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
50
+5
98.4%
Antonio Williams run for 5 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
98.4%
Nathan Elliott run for 12 yds to the Cal 33 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Anthony Ratliff-Williams) to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
98.3%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
98.3%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
98.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 14 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
98.2%
Nathan Elliott run for 4 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
98.2%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+1
98.3%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the Cal 20Similar
Q4 12:35
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+8
98.4%
Nathan Elliott run for 8 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
98.2%
Antonio Williams run for 5 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+4
98.6%
Antonio Williams run for 4 yds to the Cal 3Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
91.9%
Antonio Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:2097% → 98%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
96.6%
Brandon McIlwain run for 7 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
96.6%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 1
OPP 37
-1
96.4%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
97.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 28TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 2:465% → 16%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
95.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Javonte Williams for 21 yds to the NCaro 36 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Anthony Ratliff-Williams) to the NCaro 19Similar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 6
OWN 19
+6
95.0%
Antonio Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.2%
Antonio Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
94.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Elijah HicksSimilar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
94.6%
Jordon Brown run for 7 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
94.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 9 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+8
94.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 8 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
94.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 8 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+6
93.8%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
96.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Camryn BynumSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
96.7%
Nathan Elliott run for 1 yd to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+15
97.0%
Elliott, N pass incomplete to Ratliff, A (Bynum, Camryn), PENALTY CAL pass interference (Bynum, Camryn) 15 yards to the CAL14, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
83.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 29END OF GAME
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0310% → 2%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-17
89.6%
Jones, F kickoff 0 yards to the NC47, on-side kick, recovered by NC Ratliff, A on NC47, PENALTY NC illegal block 17 yards to the NC30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
90.5%
Jones, F kickoff 14 yards to the NC44, on-side kick, recovered by CAL Davis, Ashtyn on NC44, PENALTY NC illegal touching 7 yards to the NC37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
98.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-1
97.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:13
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)
-13.1
TD · Q3 0:22
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 4 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)
+7.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:10
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 38
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com