2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreORST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:25 · Jordan Choukair 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:41: Rashod Berry 6 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:25: Mike Weber 49 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:58: Mike Weber 3 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:25: Jordan Choukair 23 yd FG GOOD — ORST win probability +0.5 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:25: Mike Weber run for 4 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ORST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 5:45ORST 4th & 16 at OSU 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.116% to convertField goal2.0%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q1 0:26ORST 4th & 22 at ORST 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q2 14:21ORST 4th & 11 at OSU 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call2.3%66% to makePunt1.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 10:51ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 23, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q2 6:34ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 29, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q2 5:15OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 32, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q3 6:35ORST 4th & 2 at OSU 11, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%56% to convertField goal0.3%−0.187% to makePunt-0.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 5:25ORST 4th & 5 at OSU 5, down 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%92% to makePunt-0.2%−0.5average punt
- Q4 12:32ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 21, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:24ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 33, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:50OSU 4th & 1 at ORST 33, up 39Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%71% to convertField goal99.8%−0.249% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 11:17OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:35ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.8%97% to makeGo for two1.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:20OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:41OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:25OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:58OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:30OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:19ORST Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.5%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:45OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:26ORST Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:55OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:06ORST Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:25OSU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:26OSU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:50OSU Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartORSTDrive 1FUMBLE8 plays · 32 yds · 2:251% → 1%
Q1 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+25
99.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 25 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
99.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Robert Landers) to the OhSt 41Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 2
OPP 38
-5
98.9%
Jake Luton run for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 43 Jake Luton fumbled, recovered by OhSt Nick BosaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD5 plays · 57 yds · 1:0899% → 99%
Q1 12:04
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+21
98.9%
J.K. Dobbins run for 6 yds to the OHIOST 48 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+27
98.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 27 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.9%
Terry McLaurin 2 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:371% → 1%
OSUDrive 4TD9 plays · 65 yds · 2:0599% → 99%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
98.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 3 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
98.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 6 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+11
98.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 11 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
98.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 17 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 2:281% → 2%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.6%
Conor Blount pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
98.6%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jeffrey Okudah) to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
98.6%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jeffrey Okudah) to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-10
98.5%
Conor Blount sacked by Dre'Mont Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the OhSt 47Similar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 16
OPP 44
+19
98.5%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 34 yds, fair catch by C.J. Saunders at the OhSt 10 OREGON ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the OhSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4998% → 99%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
98.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 27 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
98.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 5 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+10
98.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 10 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+17
98.4%
J.K. Dobbins run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (Kaleb Hayes) to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.6%
Rashod Berry 6 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7FUMBLE9 plays · 14 yds · 3:092% → 2%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
98.5%
Conor Blount pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 13 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+5
98.3%
Conor Blount pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 5 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-12
98.3%
Conor Blount sacked by Nick Bosa for a loss of 12 yards to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 22
OWN 39
0
98.3%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 37 yds , C.J. Saunders returns for no gain to the OhSt 24 C.J. Saunders fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Nick MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8MISSED FG4 plays · -1 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q2 14:55
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+4
98.2%
Conor Blount pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 4 yds to the OhSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4598% → 99%
ORSTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:291% → 1%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-6
98.9%
Conor Blount sacked by Dre'Mont Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+5
98.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 41 yds , C.J. Saunders returns for 5 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD10 plays · 59 yds · 2:3799% → 100%
Q2 9:50
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+18
99.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 18 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+20
99.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 20 yds to the OrgSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.5%
Mike Weber 3 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:190% → 0%
OSUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q2 6:00
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+5
99.6%
Tate Martell pass complete to Chris Olave for 5 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14FUMBLE RETURN TD2 plays · -3 yds · 0:400% → 0%
ORSTDrive 15TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:010% → 0%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 33 TEAM fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Conor BlountSimilar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+27
99.8%
Conor Blount pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 27 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-12
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 12 yards to the OrgSt 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Conor BlountSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 22
OWN 48
+11
99.8%
Conor Blount pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 11 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+12
99.8%
Conor Blount pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 12 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-9
99.7%
Conor Blount sacked by Nick Bosa for a loss of 9 yards to the OhSt 38Similar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.7%
Trevon Bradford 7 Yd pass from Conor Blount (Jordan Choukair Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.7%
Terry McLaurin 75 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18TD2 plays · 80 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19TD11 plays · 75 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q3 13:00
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+7
99.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+21
99.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 21 yds to the OrgSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 8 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD4 plays · 76 yds · 0:420% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21FUMBLE11 plays · 56 yds · 3:44100% → 100%
Q3 10:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+17
99.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 17 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+46
99.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass intercepted Shawn Wilson return for 33 yds to the OhSt 19 Shawn Wilson fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Kaleb Hayes , return for 46 yds to the OhSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22FG6 plays · 14 yds · 1:400% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23TD12 plays · 79 yds · 5:50100% → 100%
Q3 3:25
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+12
99.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 12 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 4 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+5
99.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:400% → 0%
OSUDrive 25TD8 plays · 46 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
ORSTDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 7:24
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Demario McCall at the OhSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 27TD7 plays · 71 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
100.0%
Tate Martell pass complete to Jaylen Harris for 15 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 28Uncategorized7 plays · 15 yds · 3:150% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:25
Mike Weber 49 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
+0.7
TD · Q2 7:58
Mike Weber 3 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
+0.5
FG · Q3 5:25
Jordan Choukair 23 yd FG GOOD
-0.5