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COLO

Colorado 45 at Colorado State 13

CSU
2018 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2018 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:36 · Ryan Stonehouse punt for 53 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 8 yds to the Colo 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Pregame prior+11.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:17: Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 46 yds for a TD COLORADO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 8 (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +3.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:54: K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 26 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 3:25: Steven Montez pass complete to Beau Bisharat for 4 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +5.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:14: Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 4 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +8.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:41: Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 89 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +13.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 13:36CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:01CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:54CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.4%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:07CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:41COLO 4th & 8 at CSU 43, up 21
    Close callPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:12CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 5, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 36, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:40CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 37, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−1.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:46CSU 4th & 13 at CSU 22, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:23COLO 4th & 17 at CSU 22, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00CSU 4th & 8 at COLO 48, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:06COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 15, up 35
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:39CSU 4th & 9 at COLO 9, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:05COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 35, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:35CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 15, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:47COLO 4th & 7 at CSU 16, up 32
    Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:36COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:17COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:54CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:25COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:14COLO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:41COLO Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:46COLO Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2439% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
61.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 8 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+17
61.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
61.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 7 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+5
61.5%
Kyle Evans run for 5 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
60.9%
Steven Montez run for 38 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
61.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
61.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
61.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
61.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
61.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 6 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-2
61.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 42Similar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+8
61.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 53 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 8 yds to the Colo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 1:3741% → 45%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
59.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 13 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
59.4%
Kyle Evans run for 8 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+5
59.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 5 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
59.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the Colo 44Similar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+10
59.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 10 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
55.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 46 yds for a TD COLORADO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 8 (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2356% → 59%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
56.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 17 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
56.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+12
56.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 12 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
56.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
56.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+13
56.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 13 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
59.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 26 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:2943% → 49%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
57.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
57.3%
Travon McMillian run for 15 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
56.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 9 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+7
56.6%
Travon McMillian run for 7 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
56.6%
Travon McMillian run for 18 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
56.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 8 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+11
56.1%
Kyle Evans run for 11 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
56.1%
Kyle Evans run for no gain to the ColSt 4Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
51.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Beau Bisharat for 4 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 1:2452% → 51%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.0%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
52.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 3 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
52.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 7 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
52.1%
Marcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
52.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-6
51.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Mustafa Johnson and Carson Wells for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
51.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:3151% → 51%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
49.4%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+7
49.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 7 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
48.7%
Steven Montez pass intercepted V.J. Banks return for no gain to the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8INT
12 plays · 34 yds · 0:0050% → 52%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
50.1%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 14Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+10
50.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 10 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
50.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
50.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 7 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
50.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
50.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
50.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for no gain to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
50.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 9 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-1
51.5%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+4
51.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 4 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
51.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
51.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass intercepted Nate Landman return for 2 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:2357% → 65%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
42.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 16 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
42.7%
Kyle Evans run for 8 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+8
42.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 8 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
42.6%
Kyle Evans run for no gain to the ColSt 16Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
42.6%
Kyle Evans run for 6 yds to the ColSt 10Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+5
42.8%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
42.6%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the ColSt 4Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
34.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 4 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
32.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 12 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
33.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Izzy MatthewsSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
33.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 2 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+2
33.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 2 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q2 6:07
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+15
33.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 53 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 15 yds to the Colo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:4468% → 72%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+37
31.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 37 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
29.8%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the ColSt 44Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+1
29.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 1 yd to the ColSt 43Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
30.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
28.1%
Alex Kinney punt for 42 yds, downed at the ColSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2028% → 25%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
28.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 3Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+4
28.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 7 COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 4
OWN 7
-2
27.8%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 5Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+19
25.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 52 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 19 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
20.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 4 yds K.D. Nixon fumbled, forced by Rashad Ajayi, recovered by ColSt Arjay JeanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:5227% → 31%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
26.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 9 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+10
29.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 10 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
29.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Delrick Abrams Jr.Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
29.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Cameron Butler, broken up by Drew LewisSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+7
28.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 7 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+5
29.0%
DAVIS, B. field goal attempt from 56 MISSED - wide right,, clock 00:10, PENALTY COLO roughing the kicker (Udoffia, Trey) 5 yards to the COLO33, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
30.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+51
31.1%
Wyatt Bryan 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
26.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
26.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
26.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Cameron Butler, broken up by Drew LewisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
26.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
25.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 50 yds, downed at the Colo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 1:1877% → 92%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
22.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Travon McMillianSimilar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-7
22.6%
Montez, Steven pass complete to Nixon, K.D. for 23 yards to the COLO38, out-of-bounds (FOGAL, J.), PENALTY COLO holding (Shenault, Lavis) 7 yards to the COLO8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+3
21.2%
Steven Montez run for 3 yds to the Colo 11Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+89
7.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 89 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
5.7%
Marcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
5.7%
HILL, C. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, O., QB hurry by Johnson, Mustaf, PENALTY COLO pass interference (Wigley, Dante) 10 yards to the CSU36, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
5.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
5.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+5
5.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 5 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 4
OWN 42
-5
6.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+28
5.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 61 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 28 yds to the Colo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:3295% → 96%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
5.0%
Kyle Evans run for 9 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
4.7%
Kyle Evans run for 3 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
4.7%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
4.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 7 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+49
3.6%
Travon McMillian run for 49 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
4.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
4.5%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Ben Knox) to the ColSt 22Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
4.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Cameron ButlerSimilar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
4.4%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+12
4.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 57 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 12 yds to the Colo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 4:0397% → 98%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
3.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 16
OWN 27
+4
3.3%
Kyle Evans run for 4 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+43
3.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 43 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
2.8%
Kyle Evans run for 3 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+8
2.8%
Travon McMillian run for 8 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
2.8%
Steven Montez run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 22 Steven Montez fumbled, recovered by Colo Steven Montez , return for no gain to the ColSt 22Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 17
OPP 22
0
2.9%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the ColSt 22Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 17
OPP 22
0
2.9%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the ColSt 22Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 17
OPP 22
+39
2.0%
James Stefanou 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 3:232% → 1%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.7%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
1.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Tyler Bjorklund) to the ColSt 22Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
1.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 2 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+14
1.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 14 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
1.7%
Marcus McElroy run for 5 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
1.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Nikko Hall for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
50
0
1.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Warren Jackson, broken up by Nate LandmanSimilar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
50
+5
1.8%
Marcus McElroy run for 5 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-3
0.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Jase Franke for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
0.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 40 yds, downed at the Colo 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
0.9%
Beau Bisharat run for 2 yds to the Colo 10Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+4
0.9%
Beau Bisharat run for 4 yds to the Colo 14Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+1
0.9%
Beau Bisharat run for 1 yd to the Colo 15 COLORADO Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
1.0%
Alex Kinney punt for 43 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for no gain to the ColSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:411% → 0%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
0.5%
Marcus McElroy run for 24 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
0.5%
Nikko Hall run for 8 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+2
0.5%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
0.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to EJ Scott for 8 yds to the Colo 16Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 2
OPP 16
-2
0.5%
Marcus McElroy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 18Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+14
0.5%
Marcus McElroy run for 14 yds to the Colo 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
0.5%
MCELROY, M. rush for loss of 1 yard to the COLO5 (Landman, Nate;Rakestraw, Derr), PENALTY COLO offside (Lang, Terrance) 2 yards to the COLO2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-7
0.5%
Marcus McElroy run for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 9Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Cameron Butler, broken up by Derrion RakestrawSimilar
Q4 8:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
0.3%
Wyatt Bryan 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:26100% → 100%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
0.3%
Sam Noyer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 28Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+5
0.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 5 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+1
0.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the Colo 35 Alex Fontenot fumbled, forced by Jan-Phillip Bombek, recovered by Colo Alex FontenotSimilar
Q4 8:05
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
0.3%
Alex Kinney punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.2%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
0.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to EJ Scott, broken up by Ronnie BlackmonSimilar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-7
0.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Daniel Talley and Chris Mulumba for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+3
0.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 52 yds , Donovan Lee returns for 3 yds to the Colo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 46 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
0.2%
Beau Bisharat run for 4 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+20
0.2%
Beau Bisharat run for 20 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
0.2%
Beau Bisharat run for 4 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+17
0.2%
Beau Bisharat run for 17 yds to the ColSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
0.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 7 yds to the ColSt 12Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 3
OPP 12
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 14Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 16Similar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 7
OPP 16
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
0.1%
Marcus McElroy run for 11 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:41
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 89 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)
-13.6
TD · Q2 6:14
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 4 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)
-8
TD · Q1 3:25
Steven Montez pass complete to Beau Bisharat for 4 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com