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CIN

Cincinnati 26 at UCLA 17

UCLA
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:17 · Stefan Flintoft punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Pregame prior+30.6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:57: Michael Warren II 1 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick) — CIN win probability +6.7 pts (now 32%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:20: Cole Smith 24 Yd Field Goal — CIN win probability +7.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:49: Kazmeir Allen 74 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick) — UCLA win probability +12.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. SAFETY · Q4 9:45: Team Safety — CIN win probability +6.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 1:44: Michael Warren II 1 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick) — CIN win probability +12.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9CIN made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 13:17UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:40UCLA 4th & 7 at CIN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:24CIN 4th & 15 at CIN 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:02UCLA 4th & 14 at CIN 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:27CIN 4th & 1 at UCLA 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%−1.0
    72% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:19UCLA 4th & 21 at UCLA 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−1.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:20CIN 4th & 3 at UCLA 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.5
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−6.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:53CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:32CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:11UCLA 4th & 12 at UCLA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−3.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:40CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:51UCLA 4th & 4 at CIN 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.9%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:51CIN 4th & 4 at UCLA 46, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−4.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:55UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−1.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:44CIN 4th & 4 at UCLA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    38.6%−2.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−4.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:43UCLA 4th & 15 at UCLA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−6.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:54CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−2.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:52CIN 4th & 10 at UCLA 49, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−2.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:46UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 36, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.9%−5.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:44CIN 4th & 2 at UCLA 12, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−5.7
    86% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−32.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:44CIN 4th & 1 at UCLA 1, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%−13.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−46.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:38UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:02CIN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:57CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:49UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:44CIN Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4381% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
81.4%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Joshua KelleySimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
81.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-5
81.2%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Joshua Kelley) to the UCLA 19Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+7
81.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 7 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
80.9%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1219% → 20%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
80.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 10 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
80.7%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
80.6%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-4
80.3%
Hayden Moore sacked by Keisean Lucier-South for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
80.4%
James Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:2580% → 80%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
80.3%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Caleb Wilson) to the UCLA 8Similar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+3
80.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 3 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+16
80.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Christian Pabico for 1 yd to the UCLA 12 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Michael Pitts) to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
80.2%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+23
80.0%
Kazmeir Allen run for 23 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
80.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Kyle Philips for 3 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
80.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kyle PhilipsSimilar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
80.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kazmeir AllenSimilar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
79.5%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
79.4%
Hayden Moore sacked by Rick Wade for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 13 Hayden Moore fumbled, forced by Rick Wade, recovered by UCLA Keisean Lucier-South , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5TD
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:5680% → 82%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
80.1%
Kazmeir Allen run for 2 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+6
80.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Kyle Philips for 6 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+4
79.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 4 yds to the Cincy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi 1 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:1419% → 19%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
81.1%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Jaelan Phillips for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
81.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 4 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
81.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Dino Boyd) to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+1
81.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 1 yd to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+9
81.5%
James Smith punt for 44 yds , Darnay Holmes returns for 9 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:2282% → 81%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
81.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 8 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+9
81.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 9 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
81.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 12 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
82.1%
Wilton Speight sacked by Bryan Wright for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-5
82.0%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Andre James) to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 17
OPP 33
0
81.8%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 17
OPP 33
+3
81.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Theo Howard for 3 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 14
OPP 30
+47
81.3%
JJ Molson 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:0018% → 25%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.8%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
81.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 5 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
81.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Morgan James) to the Cincy 29Similar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
82.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 15 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
81.4%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
81.2%
Michael Warren II run for 7 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
81.0%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+10
81.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 10 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+5
81.2%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
80.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 9 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
80.6%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
81.0%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+3
81.5%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
80.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 18 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.1%
Michael Warren II 1 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.2%
Wilton Speight pass intercepted James Wiggins return for no gain to the UCLA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:0025% → 32%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
74.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 13 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
74.7%
Michael Warren II run for 9 yds to the UCLA 5Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 1
OPP 5
0
74.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad MedarisSimilar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+1
75.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the UCLA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
74.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 2 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
74.3%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the UCLA 1Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.6%
Michael Warren II 1 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 4:3870% → 66%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Kyle Philips for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
68.9%
Wilton Speight run for 13 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
70.8%
Wilton Speight run for 1 yd to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+1
70.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the UCLA 44Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+16
68.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Theo Howard for 16 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
71.0%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 13
OPP 43
-4
69.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Ethan Tucky and Cortez Broughton for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 17
OPP 47
-4
67.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 21
OWN 49
0
66.3%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Aulden Knight at the Cincy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12FG
13 plays · 80 yds · 1:5934% → 47%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
65.9%
Michael Warren II run for 18 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
64.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 10 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
62.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+8
62.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 8 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+32
61.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 32 yds to the UCLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
60.6%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+3
59.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the UCLA 6Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
59.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
52.6%
Cole Smith 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:2058% → 58%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
58.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Theo Howard for 3 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
57.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 8 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:0745% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
55.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (Desmond Ridder) to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+13
56.0%
Michael Warren II run for 13 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
54.0%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
53.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
54.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
55.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+2
56.0%
James Smith punt for 43 yds , Darnay Holmes returns for 2 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 1:0456% → 71%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
56.4%
Joshua Kelley run for 9 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-5
57.9%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Jake Burton) to the UCLA 26Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+74
70.8%
Kazmeir Allen 74 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1733% → 33%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
67.4%
Warren II, Michael rush for 6 yards to the CINCINNATI31, PENALTY CINCINNATI illegal formation 5 yards to the CINCINNATI20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
67.6%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.4%
Michael Warren II run for 8 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
66.3%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
67.3%
James Smith punt for 44 yds , Darnay Holmes returns for 7 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2170% → 67%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
69.6%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the UCLA 30Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
69.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-3
67.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Cortez Broughton for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
66.5%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:3135% → 34%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
65.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+10
65.6%
Michael Warren II run for 10 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
62.9%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the Cincy 44Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
63.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad MedarisSimilar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
64.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
66.5%
James Smith punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:4968% → 68%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
67.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 13 yds to the UCLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
68.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 2 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
67.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Chase CotaSimilar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+5
66.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Cortez Broughton) to the UCLA 30Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+16
67.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 16 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
70.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Caleb WilsonSimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
69.3%
Kazmeir Allen run for no gain to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+6
67.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 6 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
67.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Caleb WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0040% → 39%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
59.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 1 yd to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+5
59.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 5 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
59.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Javan HawesSimilar
Q3 3:51
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
61.1%
James Smith punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5666% → 63%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
65.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 5 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 5
OWN 16
0
65.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Christian PabicoSimilar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
64.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kazmeir AllenSimilar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 5
OWN 16
+12
62.8%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 57 yds , Aulden Knight returns for 12 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:1140% → 42%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
59.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
58.5%
Ridder, Desmond pass incomplete to Geddis, Thomas, PENALTY UCLA offside (Lucier-South, Keisean) 5 yards to the CINCINNATI47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
57.6%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
50
+2
57.4%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-5
56.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Dino Boyd) to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+10
59.3%
Michael Warren II run for 10 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+5
56.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 5 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
56.0%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+1
53.8%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
55.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
58.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Warren IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:0165% → 60%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
64.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for no gain to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
64.0%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 11
OWN 31
-4
61.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Cortez Broughton for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 27Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 15
OWN 27
0
59.5%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Aulden Knight at the Cincy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4942% → 40%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
57.6%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
55.6%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-3
55.2%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Lokeni Toailoa for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 36Similar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
60.1%
James Smith punt for 52 yds , Darnay Holmes returns for no gain to the UCLA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25SF
1 play · -12 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
53.4%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4658% → 54%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
42.3%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 11
50
-4
42.8%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+5
46.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
46.5%
James Smith punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Darnay Holmes at the UCLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:0652% → 49%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
51.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+16
50.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Theo Howard for 16 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
52.0%
Kazmeir Allen run for 4 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
52.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jordan WilsonSimilar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+5
49.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 5 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
48.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Dymond LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 28TD
14 plays · 36 yds · 4:0263% → 95%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
36.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Wilson Huber for 16 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
31.7%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the UCLA 19Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+2
26.9%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+5
27.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+3
29.1%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
21.2%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the UCLA 5Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
18.9%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
14.8%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the UCLA 2Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
17.1%
UCLA Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (1 Yards) to the UCLA 1Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.9%
Michael Warren II 1 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 29END OF GAME
11 plays · 47 yds · 1:444% → 5%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
4.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for 5 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
4.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Dymond Lee for 4 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
3.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for 4 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
3.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
3.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 6 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+7
3.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 7 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
4.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Theo Howard for 14 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
5.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Caleb WilsonSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
5.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Christian Pabico for 7 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:49
Kazmeir Allen 74 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)
+12.8
TD · Q4 1:44
Michael Warren II 1 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)
-12.2
FG · Q2 0:20
Cole Smith 24 Yd Field Goal
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com