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UNLV

UNLV 21 at USC 43

USC
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:32 · Evan Owens run for 8 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:32: Armani Rogers pass complete to Kendal Keys for 31 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +3.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:04: Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +4.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:52: JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 43 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +9.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:39: Aca'Cedric Ware run for 15 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +5.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:06: Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 5 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +3.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UNLV made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 14:07USC 4th & 9 at UNLV 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:07UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:16USC 4th & 4 at USC 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:30UNLV 4th & 4 at USC 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:18USC 4th & 4 at UNLV 20, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.2%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:12USC 4th & 11 at UNLV 11, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:12UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 34, down 2
    Close callPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:19USC 4th & 16 at UNLV 29, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:12UNLV 4th & 15 at UNLV 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:21USC 4th & 14 at USC 24, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:21UNLV 4th & 9 at USC 20, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:25UNLV 4th & 20 at USC 48, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:57UNLV 4th & 9 at midfield, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:43USC 4th & 15 at USC 44, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:21UNLV 4th & 16 at UNLV 46, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:47UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 21, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:39USC 4th & 3 at UNLV 18, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%−0.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−3.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:23UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 43, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UNLV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:37UNLV Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:32UNLV Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:04USC Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:52USC Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:39USC Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:06UNLV Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:38USC Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.1%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNLV 29 Lexington Thomas fumbled, forced by Isaiah Pola-Mao, recovered by USC Porter GustinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4594% → 94%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
94.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
94.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for no gain to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
94.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler Vaughns, broken up by Dalton BakerSimilar
Q1 14:07
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+46
94.0%
Chase McGrath 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-6
94.0%
Armani Rogers sacked by Porter Gustin for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 20Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+8
94.0%
Armani Rogers run for 8 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 14:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
94.0%
Hayes Hicken punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
93.6%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
93.7%
JT Daniels run for 5 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-3
93.6%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 46Similar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
93.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 9 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
93.1%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
93.1%
Lexington Thomas run for 7 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+4
93.1%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 4 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
93.1%
Armani Rogers run for 4 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
93.1%
Armani Rogers run for 2 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
93.1%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
93.2%
Hayes Hicken punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:4993% → 92%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
92.6%
[NHSG], PENALTY USC false start (Vaughns, Tyler) 5 yards to the USC15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+7
92.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+21
92.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 21 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
92.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
92.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+5
92.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
92.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Trevon Sidney for 20 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
92.9%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+2
92.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 2 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
92.8%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+38
92.2%
Chase McGrath 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:418% → 10%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
90.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 71 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8FG
14 plays · 81 yds · 4:1790% → 90%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
90.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 15 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
90.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 9 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+22
90.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 22 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
90.9%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
90.8%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+15
90.8%
[NHSG], Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Petite, Tyler, PENALTY UNLV pass interference (ROBERTS,T.) 15 yards to the UNLV28, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
91.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 7 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 21
0
90.2%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler Vaughns, broken up by Jericho FlowersSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+12
90.0%
Amon-Ra St. Brown run for 12 yds to the UNLV 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
90.2%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the UNLV 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
90.2%
Matt Fink run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
90.0%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler Vaughns, broken up by Jocquez KaliliSimilar
Q2 13:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
89.7%
Chase McGrath 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4010% → 15%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.6%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Cameron SmithSimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
89.6%
Armani Rogers run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 23 Armani Rogers fumbled, recovered by UNLV Lexington ThomasSimilar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
89.8%
Evan Austrie punt, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
88.7%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
89.9%
Armani Rogers run for 11 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
88.7%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 31Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+31
85.1%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Kendal Keys for 31 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10FG
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:0287% → 86%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
87.4%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-15
87.4%
[NHSG], Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Sidney, Trevon, PENALTY USC pass interference (Krommenhoek, Er) 15 yards to the UNLV38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 25
OPP 38
+9
86.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 9 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 16
OPP 29
0
86.2%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:19
4TH & 16
OPP 29
+47
86.3%
Chase McGrath 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
85.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-3
85.8%
Tyleek Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-5
86.4%
[NHSG], PENALTY UNLV false start (JACOBSON,Nathan) 5 yards to the UNLV25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
86.5%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
86.9%
Hayes Hicken punt for 47 yds, downed at the USC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
85.4%
[NHSG], Ware, Aca'Cedri rush for 7 yards to the USC35 (AUSTRIE,Evan), PENALTY USC holding (Edoga, Chuma) 10 yards to the USC18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+1
85.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the USC 19Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 19
OWN 19
+5
85.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
84.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete, broken up by Javin WhiteSimilar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
84.4%
Reid Budrovich punt for 20 yds, downed at the USC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13MISSED FG
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:2118% → 19%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
82.0%
Armani Rogers run for 7 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+16
81.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 16 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
81.5%
Armani Rogers sacked by Cameron Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 23Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+3
81.7%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 3 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
82.3%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Kendal Keys, broken up by C.J. PollardSimilar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+39
81.5%
Evan Pantels 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 2:1782% → 89%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
82.4%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
82.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+9
82.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for 9 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
83.2%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
83.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 13 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+40
84.2%
Stephen Carr run for 40 yds to the UNLV 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
84.8%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the UNLV 7Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
84.8%
[NHSG], Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Pittman, Michae, PENALTY UNLV pass interference (KALILI,Jocquez) 5 yards to the UNLV2, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 0:3914% → 11%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
86.4%
Armani Rogers run for 22 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
86.9%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Brandon Presley, broken up by Cameron SmithSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
87.2%
Charles Williams run for 15 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
86.3%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Charles Williams for no gain to the USC 38Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
86.7%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-10
87.3%
[NHSG], ROGERS,Armani rush for 12 yards to the USC26, out-of-bounds (Houston, John), PENALTY UNLV holding (JACOBSON,Nathan) 10 yards to the USC48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 20
OPP 48
0
88.2%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Brandon PresleySimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 20
OPP 48
+9
88.7%
Hayes Hicken punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 18 , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for 9 yds to the USC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
88.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+16
87.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 16 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
87.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 12 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
88.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-3
88.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
87.9%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler Vaughns, broken up by Jericho FlowersSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
87.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 9 yds to the USC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
84.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 29 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
82.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 9
50
-4
82.8%
Armani Rogers sacked by Brandon Pili and Malik Dorton for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+4
84.9%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 9
50
+26
85.0%
Hayes Hicken punt for 41 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for 26 yds to the USC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0086% → 84%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
85.5%
JT Daniels run for 4 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-1
86.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 38Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+11
85.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Trevon Sidney for 11 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
86.6%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the USC 49Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
86.4%
JT Daniels run for 5 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-10
86.5%
JT Daniels sacked by Bailey Laolagi for a loss of 10 yards to the USC 44Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
84.1%
Reid Budrovich punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
82.3%
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+7
82.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 7 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
82.0%
Armani Rogers run for 8 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+1
80.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 37Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+4
80.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
80.8%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 1
50
+2
79.1%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 2 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
79.4%
Armani Rogers sacked by Jay Tufele for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+3
81.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 13
OWN 49
-3
82.1%
Armani Rogers sacked by Porter Gustin and Malik Dorton for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 16
OWN 46
+28
83.4%
Hayes Hicken punt for 51 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for 28 yds to the USC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:1982% → 94%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
82.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 12 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
83.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 11 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
84.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+43
94.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 43 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.2%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Lexington Thomas, broken up by Jordan IosefaSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
92.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 21Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
92.4%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
92.6%
Hayes Hicken punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 1:1994% → 99%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
93.8%
Velus Jones Jr. run for 8 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-5
93.8%
JT Daniels sacked by Roger Mann for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 44Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+41
93.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Trevon Sidney for 41 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
98.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 15 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:333% → 7%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.4%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 24Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
97.5%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Cody Scherff for 3 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
97.5%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 14 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
97.3%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 1
50
+7
97.1%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 7 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
97.2%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+34
97.2%
Armani Rogers run for 34 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
96.8%
Armani Rogers run for no gain to the USC 9Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
96.8%
Armani Rogers run for 4 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.9%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 5 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:2795% → 97%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
94.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
95.1%
Velus Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
95.2%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+36
95.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 36 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
95.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the UNLV 24Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+6
95.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for 6 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
96.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
97.3%
Chase McGrath 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:163% → 2%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.9%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 8 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
96.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 8 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.5%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Brandon PresleySimilar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
96.6%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Mekhi Stevenson, broken up by Olaijah GriffinSimilar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+2
96.6%
Armani Rogers run for 2 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
97.6%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Mekhi StevensonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:4198% → 100%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
98.3%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
98.6%
Matt Fink run for 1 yd to the UNLV 39Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+17
98.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 17 yds to the UNLV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
98.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 20 yds for a TD Timeout USC, clock 01:38 (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 28END OF GAME
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
99.8%
Evan Owens run for 3 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+5
99.8%
USC Penalty, Defensive offside (Jacob Lichtenstein) to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+3
99.8%
Evan Owens run for 3 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.8%
Evan Owens run for 4 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+8
99.8%
Evan Owens run for 8 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:52
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 43 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q4 12:39
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 15 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q2 1:04
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com