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BYU

BYU 28 at Arizona 23

ARIZ
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:04 · Dylan Klumph punt for 37 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 7 yds to the BYU 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Pregame prior+10.0Home team on offense−5.1Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:25: Matt Bushman 24 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Skyler Southam Kick) — BYU win probability +18.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:29: Squally Canada 1 Yd Run (Skyler Southam Kick) — BYU win probability +17.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:07: Squally Canada 2 Yd Run (Skyler Southam Kick) — BYU win probability +19.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:29: Khalil Tate run for 2 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +20.3 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:20: J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ARIZ win probability +26.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:09ARIZ 4th & 9 at BYU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q2 5:39ARIZ 4th & 5 at BYU 6, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.6%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−6.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:19BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 34, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:16ARIZ 4th & 2 at BYU 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−1.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:04ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−1.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:21ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:07BYU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 2, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.9%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    66.1%−3.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−13.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:05BYU 4th & 3 at ARIZ 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    81.9%−2.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:14ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:48BYU 4th & 16 at BYU 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−2.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:49ARIZ 4th & 10 at BYU 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 9:58BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:50ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:25BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:29BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:07BYU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:29ARIZ Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:20ARIZ Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    19.4%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1MISSED FG
16 plays · 52 yds · 5:4176% → 75%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
76.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 2 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
76.1%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+9
75.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 9 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
76.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+9
76.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 9 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
75.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+8
75.9%
Khalil Tate run for 8 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
75.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
75.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Anthony Mariscal for 3 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+8
75.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 8 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
75.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryce Wolma) to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+10
75.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 10 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
75.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the BYU 24Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
75.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+43
75.1%
Lucas Havrisik 43 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Michael SheltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:3525% → 26%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
74.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Squally Canada for 14 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
74.3%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
74.0%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Austin Hoyt) to the BYU 36Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
74.2%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
74.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:5574% → 75%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
74.3%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+15
74.2%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chris Wilcox) to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
74.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 1
50
0
74.9%
Khalil Tate run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 1
50
+4
74.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
74.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Bryce WolmaSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
74.7%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 5
OPP 41
-12
74.5%
Khalil Tate sacked by Corbin Kaufusi for a loss of 12 yards to the Ariz 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:2727% → 28%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
73.4%
Aleva Hifo run for 9 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+15
72.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Squally Canada for 15 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
72.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 3 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+8
71.5%
Squally Canada run for 8 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
71.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Talon ShumwaySimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-2
71.0%
Tanner Mangum run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 47Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+1
71.7%
Tanner Mangum run for 1 yd to the Ariz 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:1473% → 72%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
72.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
72.5%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Devaughn CooperSimilar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
71.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to J.J. TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:3229% → 39%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
70.6%
Neil Pau'u run for 8 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+4
69.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 4 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
69.6%
Squally Canada run for 5 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+5
69.2%
Squally Canada run for 5 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
69.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+30
69.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 30 yds to the Ariz 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
68.2%
Squally Canada run for 5 yds to the Ariz 2Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
67.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Zac Dawe) to the Ariz 1Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.0%
Squally Canada 1 Yd Run (Skyler Southam Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:0263% → 65%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
63.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 11 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
63.3%
Gary Brightwell run for 7 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
64.5%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-8
64.0%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Ariz 45 ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cedric Peterson) to the Ariz 35Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+19
61.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 19 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
63.4%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
63.2%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+33
62.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 33 yds to the BYU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
63.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+3
63.4%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
61.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Gary BrightwellSimilar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
65.4%
Lucas Havrisik 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1136% → 38%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.7%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
62.8%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
62.5%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
62.1%
Rhett Almond punt for 43 yds, downed at the Ariz 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 2:2563% → 75%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
62.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+5
62.5%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+15
61.8%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chris Wilcox) to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
64.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
63.0%
BYU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
64.9%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+3
64.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+18
62.3%
Khalil Tate run for 3 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (Corbin Kaufusi) to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
65.8%
Khalil Tate run for 10 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
65.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
74.6%
Tony Ellison 15 Yd pass from Khalil Tate (Lucas Havrisik Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10END OF HALF
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:4030% → 31%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
69.7%
Aleva Hifo run for 4 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+6
68.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Brayden El-Bakri for 6 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
68.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
68.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+8
69.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:3029% → 50%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
69.8%
Squally Canada run for 5 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
69.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 10 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
68.0%
Micah Simon run for 6 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+1
67.1%
Tanner Mangum run for 1 yd to the Ariz 47Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+3
67.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 3 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
67.0%
Neil Pau'u run for no gain to the Ariz 44Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
66.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 3 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-5
67.1%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Brady Christensen) to the Ariz 46Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+22
68.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Dylan Collie for 22 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
50.5%
Matt Bushman 24 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Skyler Southam Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1757% → 52%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.5%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
56.2%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 21Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+7
52.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 7 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+7
52.0%
Dylan Klumph punt for 37 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 7 yds to the BYU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:2950% → 71%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
50.0%
Squally Canada run for 7 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
49.0%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
48.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 8 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+10
47.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 10 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
46.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+6
46.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
46.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q3 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.8%
Squally Canada 1 Yd Run (Skyler Southam Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0132% → 29%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.2%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
31.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
30.0%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Devaughn CooperSimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+37
28.7%
Dylan Klumph punt for 48 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 37 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:1471% → 94%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
28.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 5
OPP 31
+20
28.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Micah Simon for 20 yds to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
28.6%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the Ariz 10Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
28.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+8
25.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 8 yds to the Ariz 2Similar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
5.7%
Squally Canada 2 Yd Run (Skyler Southam Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:2315% → 33%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
14.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 12 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
14.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+26
14.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 26 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
16.8%
Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+3
16.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+14
14.9%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Keenan Ellis) to the BYU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
15.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the BYU 13Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+6
14.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+5
12.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
32.5%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:2079% → 89%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
20.9%
Squally Canada run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
19.4%
Dylan Collie run for 13 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
18.0%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+13
16.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Brayden El-Bakri for 13 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
12.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-5
11.6%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Brady Christensen) to the Ariz 43Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
11.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 6 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
10.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
11.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4318% → 16%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
18.3%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
17.9%
Khalil Tate run for 1 yd to the Ariz 38Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
17.2%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
15.7%
Dylan Klumph punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Michael Shelton at the BYU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:2289% → 93%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
10.6%
Aleva Hifo run for 2 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+9
9.8%
Squally Canada run for 9 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
9.0%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the BYU 30Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-10
8.3%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Thomas Shoaf) to the BYU 20Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 19
OWN 20
+4
7.6%
Aleva Hifo run for 4 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 15
OWN 24
-1
7.9%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 16
OWN 23
0
7.0%
Rhett Almond punt for 44 yds, downed at the Ariz 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 1:2310% → 36%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
9.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 16 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
10.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 16 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
13.5%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
13.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to J.J. TaylorSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
10.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+16
8.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 16 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
9.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 18 yds to the BYU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21END OF GAME
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:3881% → 94%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
19.5%
Squally Canada run for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
14.3%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
14.2%
Squally Canada run for 5 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
8.7%
BYU Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+2
9.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+6
9.1%
Squally Canada run for 6 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+9
5.6%
Squally Canada run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:20
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+26.6
TD · Q4 13:29
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)
+20.3
TD · Q3 1:07
Squally Canada 2 Yd Run (Skyler Southam Kick)
-19.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com