2018 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2018 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:36 · Doug Lloyd punt for 36 yds, downed at the WebSt 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:14: Kaden Jenks run for 2 yds for a TD (Trey Tuttle KICK) — WEB win probability +0.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: WEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:34: Zack Moss run for 86 yds for a TD WEBER ST Penalty, substitution infraction (2 Yards) to the WebSt 1 (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +1.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:15: Matt Gay 35 yd FG GOOD — UTAH win probability +0.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:39: Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 9 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +2.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:39: Tyler Huntley pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 24 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9WEB made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
- Q1 14:12WEB 4th & 5 at WEB 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q1 12:49UTAH 4th & 4 at UTAH 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snapGo for it96.2%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.2%average punt
- Q1 11:02WEB 4th & 14 at WEB 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q1 5:28WEB 4th & 11 at UTAH 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call5.5%66% to makePunt5.1%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:17WEB 4th & 15 at WEB 20, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q2 13:12UTAH 4th & 6 at WEB 25, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snapGo for it92.0%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call92.0%66% to makePunt91.0%−0.9average punt
- Q2 13:12WEB 4th & 7 at WEB 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it8.1%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.3%average punt
- Q2 10:56UTAH 4th & 3 at UTAH 37, down 3Close callPunted · 90.5% before the snapGo for it90.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:27WEB 4th & 9 at WEB 18, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snapGo for it8.9%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q2 9:36UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 49, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt89.6%−0.6average punt
- Q2 7:49WEB 4th & 13 at WEB 48, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snapGo for it10.9%−0.521% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.4%average punt
- Q2 6:34WEB 4th & 1 at WEB 34, down 4Close callPunted · 8.9% before the snapGo for it9.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 1:50UTAH 4th & 1 at WEB 27, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.0%71% to convertField goal89.4%−0.562% to makePunt88.1%−1.8average punt
- Q2 0:15UTAH 4th & 4 at WEB 18, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snapGo for it88.6%−0.447% to convertField goalTheir call89.1%79% to makePunt87.5%−1.6average punt
- Q3 14:53UTAH 4th & 6 at UTAH 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snapGo for it90.6%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.1%average punt
- Q3 13:36WEB 4th & 7 at WEB 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it8.4%−0.535% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.9%average punt
- Q3 10:39WEB 4th & 10 at WEB 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snapGo for it5.1%−0.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q3 9:38UTAH 4th & 5 at midfield, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.0%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt94.9%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:33WEB 4th & 6 at WEB 40, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q4 14:36WEB 4th & 7 at WEB 32, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 6:53WEB 4th & 4 at WEB 40, down 28Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:59UTAH 4th & 4 at WEB 15, up 28Close callKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%46% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−<0.183% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WEB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 5:14WEB Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.4%97% to makeGo for two6.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:17UTAH Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.2%97% to makeGo for two93.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:34UTAH Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.1%97% to makeGo for two91.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:39UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.8%97% to makeGo for two94.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:39UTAH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:43UTAH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWEBDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 0:482% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
WEBDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 11:02
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
97.1%
Doug Lloyd punt for 35 yds , Britain Covey returns for no gain to the Utah 40 Britain Covey fumbled, recovered by WebSt Kallin FisherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 4FG8 plays · 15 yds · 3:543% → 4%
Q1 9:22
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-1
96.7%
Kaden Jenks sacked by Pita Tonga and Leki Fotu for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
96.0%
Tyler Huntley pass intercepted Landon Stice return for 30 yds to the Utah 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 6TD1 play · 2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5796% → 95%
WEBDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9MISSED FG9 plays · 34 yds · 2:3095% → 94%
Q1 0:42
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+15
94.6%
Huntley, Tyler pass intercepted by HARRISON, J. at the WEBER34, HARRISON, J. return to the WEBER34, PENALTY WEBER pass interference (PREATOR, Parker) 15 yards to the WEBER44, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
94.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for 5 yds to the WebSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+10
94.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for 10 yds to the WebSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
94.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 7 yds to the WebSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
94.7%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Demari Simpkins, broken up by Jawian Harrison Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 13:12
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
93.7%
Kaden Jenks pass complete to Kris Jackson for 5 yds to the WebSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4193% → 93%
Q2 10:56
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
93.0%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Rashid Shaheed at the WebSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 10:27
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
93.2%
Doug Lloyd punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0010% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15TD1 play · 86 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+86
93.2%
Zack Moss run for 86 yds for a TD WEBER ST Penalty, substitution infraction (2 Yards) to the WebSt 1 (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 6:34
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
93.6%
Doug Lloyd punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17FG14 plays · 58 yds · 4:4993% → 93%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
92.8%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 19 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
93.2%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Siaosi Mariner, broken up by Jeremy MaxwellSimilar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+19
92.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for 19 yds to the WebSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-6
93.4%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Keilan Benjamin for a loss of 6 yards to the WebSt 42Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 16
OPP 42
+15
93.1%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 15 yds to the WebSt 27Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+6
92.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 6 yds to the WebSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 18END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
WEBDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q3 13:36
3RD & 4
OWN 16
-3
92.4%
Kaden Jenks sacked by Donavan Thompson for a loss of 3 yards to the WebSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21TD4 plays · 49 yds · 1:3193% → 96%
WEBDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Kaden Jenks pass complete to David Ames for no gain to the WebSt 25Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Kaden Jenks pass incomplete to Rashid Shaheed, broken up by Bradlee AnaeSimilar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Doug Lloyd punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 23TD8 plays · 68 yds · 2:5996% → 99%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
95.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 4 yds to the Utah 36Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+9
95.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 9 yds to the Utah 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
95.9%
Huntley, Tyler pass incomplete to Enis, Solomon, PENALTY WEBER pass interference (COLLINS, Marque) 15 yards to the WEBER24, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
98.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 24 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 24PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 6:33
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+5
98.4%
JENKS, Kaden rush for 6 yards to the WEBER32 (Hansen, Chase;Nurse, Josh), PENALTY UTAH offside (Anae, Bradlee) 5 yards to the WEBER31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+5
98.3%
JENKS, Kaden rush for 3 yards to the WEBER34 (Afia, Philip), PENALTY UTAH offside (Anae, Bradlee) 5 yards to the WEBER36, 1ST DOWN WEBER, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.3%
Kaden Jenks pass incomplete to Isiah Jackson, broken up by Julian BlackmonSimilar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+42
98.3%
Doug Lloyd punt for 42 yds , Britain Covey returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 25TD12 plays · 83 yds · 3:3999% → 100%
Q3 3:22
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+29
98.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Solomon Enis for 29 yds to the Utah 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
98.8%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Solomon Enis for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 5
50
+6
98.8%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to TJ Green for 6 yds to the WebSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+17
98.8%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 17 yds to the WebSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.2%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Solomon Enis, broken up by Parker PreatorSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
99.2%
UTAH Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (Darrin Paulo) to the WebSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+5
99.1%
WEBER ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Jayden Palauni) to the WebSt 29Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+29
99.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 29 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
UTAHDrive 27FUMBLE7 plays · 28 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:05
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
99.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for 7 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Devin Brumfield for 5 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for 8 yds to the Utah 44Similar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Armand Shyne for 2 yds Armand Shyne fumbled, forced by Noah Vaea, recovered by WebSt Jawian Harrison Jr. , return for a loss of 20 yards to the WebSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 28MISSED FG4 plays · 1 yds · 1:190% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 29FUMBLE4 plays · 38 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
WEBDrive 30PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:53
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Doug Lloyd punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 31FG7 plays · 67 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q4 5:24
3RD & 4
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for no gain to the WebSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 32Uncategorized5 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:39
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 24 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q3 10:39
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 9 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK)
+2.7
TD · Q2 6:34
Zack Moss run for 86 yds for a TD WEBER ST Penalty, substitution infraction (2 Yards) to the WebSt 1 (Matt Gay KICK)
+1.6