2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreSC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:25 · Greg Huegel 39 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:29: Kiel Pollard 67 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Parker White Kick) — SC win probability +2.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:37: Deebo Samuel 75 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Parker White Kick) — SC win probability +3.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:21: Travis Etienne 2 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick) — CLEM win probability +4.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:46: Tavien Feaster 13 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick) — CLEM win probability +3.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:37: Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 20 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +2.7 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 5SC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 3:36SC 4th & 15 at SC 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snapGo for it8.2%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.4%average punt
- Q2 12:12SC 4th & 2 at CLEM 2, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.0%48% to convertField goal8.6%−0.494% to makePunt7.1%−1.9average punt
- Q2 7:23CLEM 4th & 1 at SC 1, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.8%59% to convertField goal90.1%−0.794% to makePunt88.3%−2.5average punt
- Q2 1:56CLEM 4th & 9 at SC 36, up 7Close callPunted · 89.4% before the snapGo for it89.2%32% to convertField goal89.2%−<0.142% to makePuntTheir call88.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:25CLEM 4th & 10 at SC 21, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snapGo for it88.4%−0.928% to convertField goalTheir call89.3%74% to makePunt86.9%−2.4average punt
- Q3 8:08SC 4th & 23 at SC 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it5.7%−1.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%average punt
- Q3 1:57SC 4th & 2 at CLEM 2, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%48% to convertField goal1.2%−0.494% to makePunt-0.7%−2.3average punt
- Q4 9:10SC 4th & 7 at CLEM 32, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.137% to convertField goal0.1%51% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 7:09CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 33, up 21Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:06SC 4th & 14 at SC 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q4 1:06CLEM 4th & 3 at SC 16, up 14Close callWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.9%−<0.151% to convertField goal97.9%81% to makePunt96.6%−1.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 10:41SC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.8%97% to makeGo for two6.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:17CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two92.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:17CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.8%97% to makeGo for two91.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:23CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.5%97% to makeGo for two93.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:29SC Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.5%97% to makeGo for two9.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:49CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:37SC Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.7%97% to makeGo for two9.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:21CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.7%97% to makeGo for two93.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:46CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:05CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:10SC Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.0%97% to makeGo for two1.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:37SC Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call2.4%−<0.197% to makeGo for two2.5%45% to convert
- Q4 0:39CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1TD15 plays · 75 yds · 4:195% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.9%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Mon Denson) to the SCaro 20Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+15
94.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 15 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
94.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 29 yds to the Clem 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+8
94.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 8 yds to the Clem 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+5
94.0%
Bentley, Jake pass incomplete to Dawkins, Chavis, PENALTY CLEMSON offside (Ferrell, Clelin) 5 yards to the CLEMSON13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+2
94.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Mon Denson for 2 yds to the Clem 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1794% → 93%
Q1 9:29
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+22
93.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 22 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
93.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 23 yds to the SCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
93.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 3 yds to the SCaro 20Similar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
92.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 9 yds to the SCaro 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 2:417% → 8%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.7%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Dennis Daley) to the SCaro 20Similar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
92.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 3 yds to the SCaro 23Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
92.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 5 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+17
92.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 17 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
92.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 2 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-7
91.9%
Jake Bentley sacked by Austin Bryant for a loss of 7 yards to the SCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4TD10 plays · 95 yds · 3:0392% → 93%
Q1 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+8
91.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 8 yds to the Clem 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+26
91.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 26 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+8
91.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 8 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
91.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 7 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5DOWNS15 plays · 73 yds · 2:588% → 8%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
92.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 17 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
92.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 2 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+9
91.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 9 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+15
91.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 15 yds to the Clem 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+14
91.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Mon Denson for 14 yds to the Clem 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
91.1%
Bentley, Jake pass incomplete to Dawkins, Chavis, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Mullen, Trayvon) 12 yards to the CLEMSON3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOCAROLINA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD12 plays · 97 yds · 4:0792% → 94%
Q2 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+4
91.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 4 yds to the Clem 10Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+28
91.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 28 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Keisean Nixon) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
92.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 17 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+3
92.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 3 yds to the SCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
92.3%
Travis Etienne run for 2 yds to the SCaro 16 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Javon Kinlaw) to the SCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7TD4 plays · 73 yds · 0:386% → 9%
CLEMDrive 8TD6 plays · 70 yds · 1:2792% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 39 yds · 2:2891% → 90%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
50
+13
91.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Derion Kendrick for 13 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11INT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4010% → 10%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
90.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 4 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-5
89.9%
Bentley, Jake pass complete to Edwards, Bryan for 21 yards to the SOCAROLINA45, PENALTY SOCAROLINA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SOCAROLINA19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+7
90.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 7 yds to the SCaro 26Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
90.2%
Jake Bentley pass intercepted J.D. Davis return for 3 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12MISSED FG10 plays · 12 yds · 0:3591% → 89%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
91.3%
CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Amari Rodgers) to the SCaro 48Similar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 25
OPP 48
+8
90.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 8 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 17
OPP 40
+16
90.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 16 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2890% → 94%
Q3 14:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
89.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for no gain to the Clem 33Similar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
50
+23
90.2%
Travis Etienne run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-10
89.6%
Etienne, Travis rush for 6 yards to the SOCAROLINA21, PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Hyatt, Mitch) 10 yards to the SOCAROLINA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+25
88.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 25 yds to the SCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 2:017% → 6%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
93.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Kiel Pollard for 27 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
92.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 11 yds to the Clem 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 9
OPP 41
-9
92.4%
Jake Bentley sacked by Christian Wilkins for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16TD5 plays · 80 yds · 1:1794% → 98%
SCDrive 17DOWNS20 plays · 73 yds · 4:382% → 2%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 4 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
97.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 11 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
97.8%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (K.C. Crosby) to the SCaro 35Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+17
97.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jacob August for 17 yds to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+3
97.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 3 yds to the Clem 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18TD11 plays · 98 yds · 4:2499% → 100%
Q3 1:11
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+9
99.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Derion Kendrick for 9 yds to the Clem 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+19
99.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Derion Kendrick for 19 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+10
99.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Derion Kendrick for 10 yds to the SCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:450% → 1%
Q4 11:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
99.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 15 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 7
50
+15
99.9%
Bentley, Jake pass incomplete to Samuel, Deebo (TEAM), PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Turner, Nolan) 15 yards to the CLEMSON35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOCAROLINA, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM.Similar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 3 yds to the Clem 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 7:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
99.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 6 yds to the Clem 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:591% → 1%
CLEMDrive 22FUMBLE5 plays · 39 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
SCDrive 23TD5 plays · 74 yds · 0:531% → 3%
CLEMDrive 24TD11 plays · 54 yds · 2:5099% → 100%
SCDrive 25Uncategorized3 plays · 55 yds · 0:090% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:21
Travis Etienne 2 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)
+4.3
TD · Q3 6:46
Tavien Feaster 13 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)
+3.4
TD · Q2 4:37
Deebo Samuel 75 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Parker White Kick)
-3.2