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Kentucky 56 at Louisville 10

LOU
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:09 · Sean McCormack pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Tyrell Ajian
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Home team on offense−51.9Pregame prior−8.4Score differential−41.6Garbage-time factor−18.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:50: Malik Cunningham run for 75 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +3.0 pts (now 17%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:03: Benny Snell Jr. run for 24 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK) — UK win probability +3.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 8:51: Blanton Creque 32 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +2.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:08: Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 28 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK) — UK win probability +6.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:31: Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK) — UK win probability +5.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 15:00LOU 4th & 13 at LOU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:03LOU 4th & 5 at UK 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UK 4th & 1 at LOU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:51LOU 4th & 15 at UK 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:08LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 34, down 18
    Close callPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:59LOU 4th & 29 at LOU 43, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:19LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 8, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:08UK 4th & 2 at LOU 38, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:04LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 35, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:09LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 45, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:40UK 4th & 2 at LOU 37, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:40LOU 4th & 17 at UK 24, down 46
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UK made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 9:03UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:05UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:50LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:03UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:08UK Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:31UK Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:04UK Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:09UK Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:40UK Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
13.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-1
13.7%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 20
-10
13.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Lvile 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 10
+8
13.7%
Hassan Hall run for 8 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
13.7%
Mason King punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 4:0586% → 85%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
14.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Justin Rigg for 4 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
14.4%
Terry Wilson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
14.4%
Terry Wilson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
14.4%
Terry Wilson run for 13 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
14.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+8
14.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 8 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
14.4%
Lynn Bowden Jr. rush left for loss of 3 yards to the LOU21 (Avery, C.J.), PENALTY LOU personal foul (Etheridge, Dor.) 9 yards to the LOU9, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
14.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 7Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
14.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
15.3%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
15.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 20 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
15.6%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
15.6%
Jeremy Smith run for 7 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-4
15.7%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 49Similar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
15.4%
Mason King punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 4:1684% → 86%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
15.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+12
15.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
15.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+17
15.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
15.4%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to David BouvierSimilar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
15.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 8 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+2
15.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+27
15.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 27 yds to the Lvile 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
13.8%
Terry Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
17.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 75 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:4783% → 87%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+32
16.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 32 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
16.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 7 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-1
16.2%
Asim Rose run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+3
16.7%
Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+4
17.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
16.5%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 8 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+24
13.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 24 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 4:1215% → 16%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
14.6%
Colin Wilson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
14.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Micky Crum for 9 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+32
14.9%
Colin Wilson run for 32 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
15.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 16 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
15.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Micky Crum) to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+16
15.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 16 yds to the Kent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
15.6%
Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the Kent 5Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
14.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
14.4%
Cunningham, Mal rush right for 5 yards to the UK0, clock 09:03, PENALTY LOU holding (Thomas, Ken.) 10 yards to the UK15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
14.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q2 8:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
16.4%
Blanton Creque 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4384% → 91%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.3%
Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
16.2%
KENTUCKY Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the Kent 23Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
16.4%
Terry Wilson deep pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr., PENALTY LOU pass interference (Character, Mar.) 15 yards to the UK38, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-11
15.6%
Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the Kent 42 KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Asim Rose) to the Kent 27Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 21
OWN 27
+32
16.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 32 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
15.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 44Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 13
OPP 44
-1
15.7%
Terry Wilson sacked by Derek Dorsey and Russ Yeast for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+18
16.0%
Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (P.J. Mbanasor) to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
15.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+28
8.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 28 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
11.1%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
10.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
10.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 8 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
11.2%
Mason King punt for 33 yds, fair catch by David Bouvier at the Kent 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 1:3591% → 97%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
9.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 20 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
8.7%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr., broken up by Chandler JonesSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-8
8.8%
Asim Rose rush left for 4 yards to the LOU43, out-of-bounds (Peterson, Tab.), PENALTY UK holding (Drake Jackson) 8 yards to the UK45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 18
OWN 45
+22
8.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 7 yds to the LOUISVILLE 48 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (Tabarius Peterson) to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
8.6%
Asim Rose run for 5 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-10
8.3%
Terry Wilson deep pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr., PENALTY UK holding (Logan Stenberg) 10 yards to the LOU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+16
8.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to David Bouvier for 16 yds to the Lvile 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
8.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 9 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+13
2.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.9%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12INT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
3.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
3.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
3.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+3
3.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
3.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
3.0%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete, broken up by Cornelius SturghillSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
3.0%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+19
3.1%
Terry Wilson pass intercepted Cornelius Sturghill return for 19 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+29
1.8%
Jeremy Smith run for 29 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
2.0%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 41Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 13
OPP 41
-5
1.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Linwood Foy) to the Kent 46Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 18
OPP 46
+11
1.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 11 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-15
2.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Micky Crum) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 22
50
-7
1.7%
Sean McCormack sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 43Similar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 29
OWN 43
0
1.6%
Mason King punt for 46 yds , David Bouvier returns for no gain to the Kent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14INT
6 plays · 71 yds · 0:0098% → 99%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
1.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+8
1.6%
Asim Rose run for 8 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
1.6%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+40
1.6%
Terry Wilson run for 40 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
1.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Dorian Baker for 16 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
1.4%
Lynn Bowden Jr. pass intercepted C.J. Avery return for 3 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
0.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 4Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+8
0.9%
Sean McCormack pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 8 yds to the Lvile 12Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 1
OWN 12
-4
1.0%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 8Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 5
OWN 8
0
0.9%
Mason King punt for 49 yds, downed at the Kent 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 4:0499% → 100%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
0.8%
Asim Rose run for 3 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
0.9%
Asim Rose run for 8 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
0.8%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
0.8%
Asim Rose run for 7 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+1
0.9%
Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 3:08
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+5
0.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Dorian Baker for 5 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
0.7%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to C.J. ConradSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
0.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+32
0.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 32 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.4%
Sean McCormack pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-7
0.4%
Sean McCormack sacked by Chris Oats for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+6
0.3%
Sean McCormack run for 6 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
0.3%
Mason King punt for 38 yds, fair catch by David Bouvier at the Kent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
0.4%
Asim Rose rush left for 9 yards to the UK36 (Hicks, Rob.;Robinson, G.G.), PENALTY UK holding (Naasir Watkins) 10 yards to the UK17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+8
0.4%
Terry Wilson run for 8 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+75
0.3%
Asim Rose run for 75 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.2%
Hassan Hall run for 4 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
0.2%
Sean McCormack pass complete to Hassan Hall for 4 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
0.2%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
0.2%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
0.2%
Sean McCormack run for 4 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
0.2%
Sean McCormack pass complete to Devante Peete for 3 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
0.2%
Sean McCormack pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Tyrell AjianSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
0.2%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
0.2%
Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+6
0.2%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 6 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+37
0.2%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 37 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 51 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 7 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+40
0.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 40 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
0.1%
Hassan Hall run for 11 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
0.1%
Sean McCormack pass incomplete to Devante Peete, broken up by Jordan GriffinSimilar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-2
0.1%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 19Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 12
OPP 19
0
0.1%
Sean McCormack pass incomplete to Devante PeeteSimilar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 12
OPP 19
-5
0.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Lukayus McNeil) to the Kent 24Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 17
OPP 24
0
0.1%
Sean McCormack pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:08
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 28 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)
-6.4
TD · Q2 0:31
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)
-5.6
TD · Q2 13:03
Benny Snell Jr. run for 24 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)
-3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com