2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:48 · TaQuon Marshall sacked by Tae Crowder and Malik Herring for a loss of 7 yards to the GTech 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:51: D'Andre Swift run for 1 yd for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +2.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:32: Rodrigo Blankenship kickoff for 65 yds , Juanyeh Thomas return for 100 yds for a TD (Wesley Wells KICK) — GT win probability +2.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:56: Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 12 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +2.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:22: Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 44 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +5.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:00: Elijah Holyfield run for 8 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +2.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 6:58GT 4th & 6 at midfield, down 7Close callPunted · 14.1% before the snapGo for it14.1%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:00UGA 4th & 1 at GT 10, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.4%71% to convertField goal84.8%−0.588% to makePunt83.3%−2.1average punt
- Q2 9:30GT 4th & 6 at GT 48, down 14Close callWent for it · 12.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.0%average punt
- Q2 7:11GT 4th & 16 at GT 19, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.914% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%average punt
- Q2 1:39GT 4th & 2 at GT 48, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.3%−0.7average punt
- Q2 0:48GT 4th & 6 at UGA 45, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.8%40% to convertField goal1.4%−0.425% to makePunt1.5%−0.3average punt
- Q3 13:25GT 4th & 9 at GT 26, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q3 8:00GT 4th & 1 at GT 34, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.4%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:45GT 4th & 1 at GT 44, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 1:18GT 4th & 6 at UGA 39, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%40% to convertField goal0.2%−0.136% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:37UGA 4th & 10 at UGA 39, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 13:16GT 4th & 7 at GT 19, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 10:55UGA 4th & 1 at midfield, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 1:38UGA 4th & 18 at GT 31, up 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.113% to convertField goalTheir call100.0%54% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 10:23UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.1%97% to makeGo for two86.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:51UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.7%97% to makeGo for two87.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:56UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.9%97% to makeGo for two87.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:22UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.3%97% to makeGo for two94.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:00UGA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:20UGA Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:33GT Touchdown, down 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:39GT Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3289% → 89%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
89.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Tyler Simmons for 12 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
88.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 22 yds to the GTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+8
88.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 8 yds to the GTech 16Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 5 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 3:1711% → 12%
Q1 6:58
4TH & 6
50
0
88.2%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Terry Godwin at the Geo 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3TD11 plays · 88 yds · 5:4988% → 90%
UGADrive 5TD7 plays · 63 yds · 2:2287% → 90%
GTDrive 6DOWNS9 plays · 19 yds · 3:2611% → 10%
Q2 9:30
4TH & 6
OWN 48
-4
90.1%
TaQuon Marshall sacked by Jordan Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7TD1 play · 44 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
95.4%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 44 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT7 plays · -6 yds · 2:026% → 5%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
94.3%
Qua Searcy run for 7 yds to the GTech 32 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the GTech 17Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-1
94.7%
Tobias Oliver sacked by D'Andre Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 19Similar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+27
94.6%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 41 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 27 yds to the GTech 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9TD5 plays · 33 yds · 2:0096% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10DOWNS12 plays · 23 yds · 3:572% → 1%
UGADrive 11END OF HALF8 plays · 40 yds · 0:4499% → 99%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
99.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 12 yds to the GTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
99.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 5 yds to the GTech 18Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+10
99.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 10 yds to the GTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:301% → 1%
UGADrive 13TD6 plays · 53 yds · 2:5899% → 100%
Q3 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 4 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14DOWNS17 plays · 36 yds · 8:321% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:140% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17FUMBLE5 plays · 3 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
99.9%
James Cook run for a loss of 7 yards to the Geo 44 James Cook fumbled, forced by Brandon Adams, recovered by GTech Brandon AdamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18TD6 plays · 44 yds · 2:420% → 0%
Q4 9:45
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+22
100.0%
James Graham pass complete to TaQuon Marshall for 22 yds to the Geo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19MISSED FG11 plays · 44 yds · 5:52100% → 100%
GTDrive 20TD8 plays · 69 yds · 0:510% → 0%
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
100.0%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Jerry Howard for 15 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+26
100.0%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Brad Stewart for 26 yds to the Geo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
100.0%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Qua Searcy for no gain to the Geo 28Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+28
99.8%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Brad Stewart for 28 yds for a TD (Wesley Wells KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21Uncategorized2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:22
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 44 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q1 0:32
Rodrigo Blankenship kickoff for 65 yds , Juanyeh Thomas return for 100 yds for a TD (Wesley Wells KICK)
-2.9
TD · Q2 12:56
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 12 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
+2.8