Try the model
AUB

Auburn 21 at Alabama 52

ALA
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:45 · Arryn Siposs punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior+17.2Home team on offense+21.1Score differential+8.1Garbage-time factor+5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.2Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:04: Malik Miller 23 Yd pass from Ryan Davis (Anders Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +4.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:57: Jerry Jeudy 46 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +5.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:49: Josh Jacobs 33 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +4.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:31: Darius Slayton 52 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Anders Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +6.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:22: DeVonta Smith 40 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +5.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 14:39AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:56ALA 4th & 5 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:40AUB 4th & 26 at AUB 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:17AUB 4th & 17 at AUB 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:59ALA 4th & 10 at AUB 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    89.5%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:42AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:57ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.6%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:31ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 34, up 3
    Close callPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:23AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:20AUB 4th & 4 at ALA 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−3.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:56ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:45AUB 4th & 22 at AUB 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:33AUB 4th & 9 at ALA 41, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:29ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 18, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:38ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:37AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:15ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:04AUB Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:57ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:49ALA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:31AUB Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:22ALA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:27ALA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:29ALA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:165% → 5%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q1 14:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q1 14:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+62
95.3%
Arryn Siposs punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the ALABAMA 25 ALABAMA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (12 Yards) to the Alab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:3995% → 95%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
95.3%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+13
95.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 13 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
95.2%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+11
95.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 11 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
94.9%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 5
50
0
94.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 5
50
0
94.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 5
50
0
94.7%
Mike Bernier punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · -3 yds · 3:105% → 6%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
94.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Aub 13Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+8
94.6%
Kam Martin run for 8 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+4
94.5%
Kam Martin run for 4 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 19
OWN 16
-8
94.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-8 Yards) to the Aub 8Similar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-9
94.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Aub 26 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 16Similar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 27
OWN 8
0
94.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to JaTarvious WhitlowSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 27
OWN 8
+1
94.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 1 yd to the Aub 9Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 26
OWN 9
0
94.2%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the Aub 9Similar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 26
OWN 9
+25
94.0%
Arryn Siposs punt for 40 yds, downed at the Aub 49 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:5494% → 94%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
94.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+21
94.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 21 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
94.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 4 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+2
93.8%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
94.3%
Tua Tagovailoa 7 Yd Run (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 3:466% → 9%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
94.1%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 8 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+4
93.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
93.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 8 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+1
93.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Aub 48Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
93.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
93.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 12 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
93.3%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by LaBryan Ray for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 13
OPP 39
0
93.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+25
93.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to JaTarvious Whitlow for 25 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
93.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Alab 9Similar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 5
OPP 9
+9
91.5%
Anthony Schwartz 9 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1992% → 93%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
92.3%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
92.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 4 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+21
92.0%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 21 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
92.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 2 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+22
92.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 7 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
92.0%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Aub 14Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+10
91.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 10 yds to the Aub 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.3%
Henry Ruggs III 4 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:487% → 7%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
92.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
92.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
92.8%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 18Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
92.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
92.9%
Arryn Siposs punt for 50 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for no gain to the Alab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:1493% → 92%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
92.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Damien Harris for 11 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
92.9%
Damien Harris run for 8 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
92.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+13
92.7%
Josh Jacobs run for 13 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
92.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+15
92.6%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
92.8%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
92.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+11
92.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 11 yds to the Aub 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
92.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for no gain to the Aub 11Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-10
92.6%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Deshaun Davis and Jamien Sherwood for a loss of 10 yards to the Aub 21Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 20
OPP 21
+10
92.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 10 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+30
92.2%
Joseph Bulovas 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:128% → 8%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
92.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
91.9%
Anthony Schwartz run for 3 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
91.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
91.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
92.2%
Arryn Siposs punt for 39 yds, downed at the Alab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3492% → 91%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
92.1%
Josh Jacobs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 15Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+8
91.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 8 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+2
91.8%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
91.4%
TEAM run for no gain to the Alab 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Aub Jamien SherwoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:1810% → 14%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
90.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for no gain Anthony Schwartz fumbled, recovered by Aub Prince Tega WanoghoSimilar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
86.3%
Malik Miller 23 Yd pass from Ryan Davis (Anders Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2688% → 87%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.9%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
87.3%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 8 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
86.8%
Mike Bernier punt for 48 yds , Ryan Davis returns for 2 yds to the Aub 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:3913% → 14%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
87.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 7 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
86.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
86.5%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+1
86.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Aub 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4387% → 92%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.8%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 26Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
86.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 8 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
86.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 12 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
87.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 8 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+46
92.2%
Jerry Jeudy 46 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:279% → 9%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
91.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 6 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
91.4%
Arryn Siposs punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:2291% → 96%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
91.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 8 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+11
91.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
91.9%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the ALABAMA 48 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
96.4%
Josh Jacobs 33 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:115% → 4%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
95.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+19
95.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 44 for a 1ST down. Jared Mayden ejected for Targeting.Similar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
94.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
95.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+26
95.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 11 yds to the ALABAMA 44 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
94.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 4 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
94.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+2
95.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to JaTarvious Whitlow for 2 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+3
95.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Anders Carlson for 3 yds to the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1496% → 96%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
96.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 2 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
96.4%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
96.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+3
96.1%
Mike Bernier punt for 37 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 3 yds to the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 1:134% → 11%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
96.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
96.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 4 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+52
89.2%
Darius Slayton 52 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Anders Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5991% → 97%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
90.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 20 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
91.5%
Najee Harris run for 15 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
96.9%
DeVonta Smith 40 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:154% → 3%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
96.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 2 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-11
96.3%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Quinnen Williams for a loss of 11 yards to the Aub 13Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 19
OWN 13
-3
96.5%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Anfernee Jennings for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 10Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 22
OWN 10
0
96.7%
Arryn Siposs punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:0397% → 99%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
97.0%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+8
97.2%
Damien Harris run for 8 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
97.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 10 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.1%
Henry Ruggs III 22 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23INT
10 plays · 29 yds · 4:381% → 1%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.0%
Shaun Shivers run for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.0%
Jarrett Stidham run for 4 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.1%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 2 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+2
99.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+7
99.1%
Jarrett Stidham run for 7 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 7
50
+4
99.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 4 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+8
99.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass intercepted Anfernee Jennings return for 8 yds to the Alab 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24TD
1 play · 53 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
99.9%
Jaylen Waddle 53 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 4:470% → 0%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Anthony Schwartz run for 8 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 6 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to JaTarvious WhitlowSimilar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+15
99.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
99.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 8 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 2
OPP 34
-2
99.9%
Jarrett Stidham run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 36Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 4
OPP 36
-5
99.9%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
100.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to JaTarvious WhitlowSimilar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
100.0%
Arryn Siposs punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
100.0%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+2
100.0%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+3
100.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+1
100.0%
Mike Bernier punt for 40 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 1 yd to the Aub 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 27Uncategorized
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
100.0%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
100.0%
Malik Willis run for 5 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
100.0%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
100.0%
Malik Willis run for 9 yds to the Alab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:31
Darius Slayton 52 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Anders Carlson Kick)
-6.8
TD · Q3 2:22
DeVonta Smith 40 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)
+5.4
TD · Q3 12:57
Jerry Jeudy 46 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)
+5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com