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MSST

Mississippi State 35 at Ole Miss 3

MISS
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2018 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:35 · Tucker Day punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Home team on offense−43.3Pregame prior−12.2Score differential−34.2Garbage-time factor−13.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:02: Kylin Hill run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +2.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:04: Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +3.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 6:46: Luke Logan 32 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +1.9 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:25: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 9 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +9.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:42: Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +6.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 8 of 9MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:38MISS 4th & 20 at MISS 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:18MSST 4th & 7 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:34MISS 4th & 4 at MSST 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:03MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:40MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:25MISS 4th & 3 at MSST 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    19.9%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:46MISS 4th & 5 at MSST 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:17MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:28MISS 4th & 12 at MISS 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:06MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 37, up 18
    Close callPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:33MISS 4th & 6 at MSST 39, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:35MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 49, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:49MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 25, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:07MISS 4th & 25 at MISS 44, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:32MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 24, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:02MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:04MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:25MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:42MSST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:21MSST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:0218% → 19%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
18.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 15 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
18.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Jordan Sims) to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 15
OWN 35
0
18.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+19
18.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 19 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
18.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
18.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-13
19.2%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 13 yards to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 12:38
4TH & 20
OWN 44
0
19.2%
Mac Brown punt for 42 yds, downed at the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:5281% → 79%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
19.5%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+3
19.8%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+26
20.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 26 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
19.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+1
20.5%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 7
50
0
20.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 7
50
0
21.0%
Tucker Day punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:3621% → 22%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
21.2%
Isaiah Woullard run for 7 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
21.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
21.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Dawson KnoxSimilar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+5
21.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Participation (5 Yards) to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
21.6%
Jordan Ta'amu run for no gain to the Miss 30 Jordan Ta'amu fumbled, forced by Jeffery Simmons, recovered by MisSt Willie Gay Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:0279% → 80%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
20.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Willie Gay Jr.) to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 25
OPP 45
+14
21.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 14 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 11
OPP 31
0
21.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
21.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Kylin HillSimilar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+14
21.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 14 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
21.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+9
21.8%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
19.7%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:0121% → 21%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+26
20.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 26 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
21.5%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
21.8%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
21.9%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
21.2%
Mac Brown punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:1679% → 83%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
21.0%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+16
20.6%
Aeris Williams run for 16 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
20.4%
Aeris Williams run for 13 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
20.2%
Aeris Williams run for 11 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
20.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 20 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
20.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Benito Jones) to the Miss 12Similar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+4
20.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Miss 8Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 1
OPP 8
0
20.3%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the Miss 8Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
16.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4718% → 17%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
17.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Elijah Moore for 11 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
18.2%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-1
18.4%
Elijah Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+2
18.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 2 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
17.4%
Mac Brown punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1083% → 83%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.7%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
16.6%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
16.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
17.0%
Tucker Day punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:3417% → 20%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
17.3%
Isaiah Woullard run for 14 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
18.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 20 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
18.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-4
18.3%
Jordan Ta'amu run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+11
17.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 11 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+5
17.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 5 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
18.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 4 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+1
18.0%
Jason Pellerin run for 1 yd to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
17.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Dawson KnoxSimilar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
19.5%
Luke Logan 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0881% → 80%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
19.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
19.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
19.8%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Josiah Coatney for 0 yards to the MisSt 31 Nick Fitzgerald fumbled, forced by Josiah Coatney, recovered by MisSt Aeris Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
20.3%
Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3219% → 18%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
19.2%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
19.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
18.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q2 3:28
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
18.0%
Mac Brown punt for 65 yds , Malik Dear returns for no gain to the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 2:5080% → 91%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
19.7%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+7
19.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
19.3%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+30
18.5%
Kylin Hill run for 30 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+25
17.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 25 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
16.9%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+1
17.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 1 yd to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+14
18.0%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Mitchell, Osirus, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Hamilton, Javien) 14 yards to the OLEMISS9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
8.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 9 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.7%
Isaiah Woullard run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3490% → 90%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
10.0%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
9.9%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
10.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for no gain to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
10.0%
Tucker Day punt for 48 yds, downed at the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15INT
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:1311% → 10%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
10.6%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Gerri Green for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 8Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+9
10.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass intercepted Johnathan Abram return for 9 yds to the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:1892% → 98%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
8.4%
Aeris Williams run for 10 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
8.3%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Miss 9Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
2.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:572% → 1%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
1.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for 21 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
1.5%
Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 14
OWN 42
-1
1.4%
Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+16
1.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for 1 yd to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Chauncey Rivers) to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
1.3%
Elijah Moore run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
1.3%
Isaiah Woullard run for 1 yd to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
1.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
1.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:3099% → 99%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
1.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
1.3%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+5
1.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
1.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
1.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
0.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse JacksonSimilar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
1.0%
Tucker Day punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19INT
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
1.0%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+33
1.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to A.J. Brown for 33 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
1.1%
Matt Corral pass intercepted, touchback. Maurice Smitherman return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1199% → 99%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
0.8%
Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Tucker Day punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:351% → 1%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
0.8%
Matt Corral run for 9 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+5
0.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for 5 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
0.7%
Isaiah Woullard run for no gain to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
0.7%
Isaiah Woullard run for 13 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
0.7%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-10
0.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 17
OPP 48
-8
0.5%
Matt Corral sacked by Jeffery Simmons for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 25
OWN 44
0
0.5%
Mac Brown punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 5:38100% → 100%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+27
0.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 27 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
0.4%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
0.4%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
0.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
50
+18
0.3%
Kylin Hill run for 18 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
0.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
0.3%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the Miss 32Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+16
0.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 16 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
0.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 15 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.2%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
0.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
0.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 8 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-6
0.1%
Matt Corral sacked by Erroll Thompson and Montez Sweat for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
0.1%
Mac Brown punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 42 yds · 5:23100% → 100%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
0.2%
Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
0.1%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+7
0.1%
Nick Gibson run for 7 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
0.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+14
0.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 14 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
0.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 5 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+3
0.1%
Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+1
0.1%
Dontavian Lee run for 1 yd to the Miss 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:25
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 9 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
-9.2
TD · Q3 10:42
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
-6.3
TD · Q2 14:04
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
-3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com