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MISS

Ole Miss 29 at Vanderbilt 36

VAN
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:20 · Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 5 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+20.5+10.30−10.3−20.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 133Home team on offense+2.7Pregame prior+2.1Garbage-time factor−1.2Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Time remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:02: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 2 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +14.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:49: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 3 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +24.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:43: Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 9 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +29.3 pts (now 57%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:40: Luke Logan 32 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +37.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) OLE MISS Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declined — VAN win probability +17.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:33MISS 4th & 1 at VAN 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:22VAN 4th & 7 at MISS 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:22MISS 4th & 6 at VAN 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:15VAN 4th & 6 at MISS 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:02MISS 4th & 3 at VAN 3, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−5.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:02VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 42, down 6
    Close callPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:44VAN 4th & 13 at MISS 19, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:56MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:29MISS 4th & 23 at MISS 12, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−5.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:00MISS 4th & 5 at VAN 5, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−10.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:00VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 26, up 3
    Numbers favored punt by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.3%−2.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:26MISS 4th & 2 at VAN 18, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.5%−1.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−10.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:20VAN 4th & 2 at MISS 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−2.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−14.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:29VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:20VAN 4th & 14 at MISS 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−6.6
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−19.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:00VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−5.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:40MISS 4th & 1 at VAN 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−11.3
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−29.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MISS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 9:41MISS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:02VAN Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:33VAN Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:49VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:43MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:2742% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+17
57.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 17 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
57.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 5 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
57.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+4
57.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Elijah Moore for 4 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
58.0%
Isaiah Woullard run for no gain to the Vandy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
58.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-15
58.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn rush for 3 yards to the OM44 (Mohamed Sanogo;Qaadir Sheppard), PENALTY VANDY personal foul (Devin Cochran) 15 yards to the VANDY38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 20
OWN 38
+3
58.2%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 3 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 17
OWN 41
+10
58.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 10 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
58.2%
Parker Thome punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FG
13 plays · 74 yds · 4:2842% → 43%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+21
58.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Elijah Moore for 21 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
58.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
58.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Elijah Moore for 3 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+14
58.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 14 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
57.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
57.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 9
50
+11
58.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Floyd Allen for 11 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
57.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 8 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+8
57.5%
Isaiah Woullard run for 8 yds to the Vandy 19 Isaiah Woullard fumbled, forced by LaDarius Wiley, recovered by Miss Isaiah Woullard for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
57.5%
Eric Swinney run for 4 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
57.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus Lodge, broken up by Randall HaynieSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
57.7%
Jordan Ta'amu run for no gain to the Vandy 15Similar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+32
57.3%
Luke Logan 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0057% → 58%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
57.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 8 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+20
57.8%
Donaven Tennyson run for 20 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
58.3%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 3 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
58.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
58.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
57.6%
Parker Thome punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FG
16 plays · 91 yds · 5:3243% → 48%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
57.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 11 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
56.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 2 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+6
56.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 6 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+5
56.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus Lodge (D. Sheffield), PENALTY VANDY offside (Allan George) 5 yards to the OM30, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
56.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 15 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
55.9%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 3 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+11
55.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 11 yds A.J. Brown fumbled, forced by Frank Coppet, recovered by Miss A.J. Brown for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
54.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Floyd Allen for 14 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
54.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete, broken up by LaDarius WileySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+13
54.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 13 yds to the Vandy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
54.2%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Dimitri Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+10
54.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 10 yds to the Vandy 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
54.7%
[SH], Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Jason Pellerin, PENALTY VANDY offside (Josh Smith) 0 yards to the VANDY1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
54.3%
Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 3Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
51.8%
Luke Logan 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
53.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 17 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
54.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
55.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+1
54.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Vandy 42Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
53.6%
Parker Thome punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
1 play · 84 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+84
42.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 84 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:5746% → 45%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
45.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 39 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
47.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+6
48.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 6 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
48.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+4
48.6%
Donaven Tennyson run for 4 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
48.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-4
48.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 19Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 13
OPP 19
0
46.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Donaven TennysonSimilar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+37
44.6%
Ryley Guay 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9SF
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4856% → 55%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
43.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Octavious Cooley for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
44.1%
Jordan Ta'amu run for no gain to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
45.1%
TEAM punt blocked by Max Worship for a SAFETY blocked by Max Worship for a SAFETY for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10TD
12 plays · 53 yds · 2:5447% → 62%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
46.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+6
46.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 6 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+8
47.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 8 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
47.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
49.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. Bolar, broken up by Ken WebsterSimilar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+14
47.4%
[SH], Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb, PENALTY OM pass interference (Javien Hamilton) 14 yards to the OM17, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
49.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside (Qaadir Sheppard) to the Miss 12Similar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 5
OPP 12
-5
49.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 17Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+15
46.6%
[SH], Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. Bolar, PENALTY OM pass interference (Ken Webster) 15 yards to the OM2, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 2 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -13 yds · 0:3346% → 44%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.0%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
53.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Elijah Moore, broken up by Joejuan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-10
54.9%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Dayo Odeyingbo for a loss of 10 yards to the Miss 17Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 18
OWN 17
-5
55.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (Armani Linton) to the Miss 12Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 23
OWN 12
+8
55.9%
Mac Brown punt for 39 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 8 yds to the Miss 20 OLE MISS Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Miss 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0658% → 56%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
58.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for 13 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
56.7%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (Egidio DellaRipa) to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+30
56.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Ken Webster return for 30 yds to the Miss 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
51.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:2756% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
55.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 9 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+3
57.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+23
57.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 23 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
59.5%
Kalija Lipscomb run for 13 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
59.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 6 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+9
59.5%
Mo Hasan run for 9 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15FG
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:3333% → 39%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
67.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 29 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
63.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 22 yds to the Vandy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
61.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for 17 yds to the Vandy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-11
61.8%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Dayo Odeyingbo for a loss of 11 yards to the Vandy 18 OLE MISS Penalty, intentional grounding (Jordan Ta'amu) to the Vandy 18Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+8
63.5%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 8 yds to the Vandy 10Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
64.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Elijah Moore for 5 yds to the Vandy 5Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
60.6%
Luke Logan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Vandy 26Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
64.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn, broken up by Mohamed SanogoSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
62.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Chris PierceSimilar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
61.9%
Parker Thome pass incomplete to Dare OdeyingboSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3043% → 48%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
56.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for 4 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
56.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Eric Swinney for 3 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+1
58.3%
Eric Swinney run for 1 yd to the Vandy 18Similar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+35
52.5%
Luke Logan 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3758% → 83%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+14
57.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 14 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+22
61.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 22 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
63.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
63.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+11
62.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jamauri Wakefield for 11 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
63.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared Pinkney, broken up by Ken WebsterSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
63.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 8 yds to the Miss 8Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
61.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Miss 8Similar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+5
59.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 5 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 3 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19INT
10 plays · 52 yds · 0:4925% → 29%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
72.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for 11 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
73.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (Ben Brown) to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
75.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. Brown, broken up by Jordan GriffinSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+3
75.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Elijah Moore for 3 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+36
76.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 36 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
68.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
69.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. Brown, broken up by Joejuan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 0
+20
71.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass intercepted LaDarius Wiley return for 20 yds to the Vandy 3 VANDERBILT Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Vandy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
82.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 31Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 13
OWN 31
-5
82.0%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (Devin Cochran) to the Vandy 26Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 18
OWN 26
0
81.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared Pinkney, broken up by Willie HibblerSimilar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 18
OWN 26
+15
80.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 15 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
81.8%
Parker Thome punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 1:5920% → 57%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
79.7%
Isaiah Woullard run for 12 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
79.4%
Isaiah Woullard run for 20 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
77.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Elijah Moore for 7 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+25
75.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 25 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
72.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 17 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
43.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 9 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 4:2357% → 70%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
56.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
59.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 11 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
60.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 9 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+26
62.5%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 11 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Ryder Anderson) to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
63.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 5 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-8
63.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Donaven Tennyson for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 13
OPP 25
-1
59.2%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Benito Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 26Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 14
OPP 26
+44
70.0%
Ryley Guay 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23INT
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:0033% → 44%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Isaiah WoullardSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 12 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
64.2%
[SH], Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Alex Weber for loss of 2 yards to the OM35 (J. Williams), PENALTY OM holding (Alex Givens) 10 yards to the OM27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 20
OWN 27
0
66.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Isaiah Woullard, broken up by Dayo OdeyingboSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+7
67.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for 7 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+28
68.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 13 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (Josh Smith) to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
59.3%
Isaiah Woullard run for 5 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+10
56.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass intercepted, touchback. Joejuan Williams return for no gain VANDERBILT Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jared Pinkney)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0082% → 79%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
81.9%
[SH], Ke'Shawn Vaughn rush for 3 yards to the VANDY13 (Ken Webster), PENALTY VANDY holding (Justin Skule) 5 yards to the VANDY5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+8
81.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 8 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
81.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb, broken up by Keidron SmithSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
80.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
78.8%
Parker Thome punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 1:0130% → 55%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
70.5%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 7 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+5
68.1%
Isaiah Woullard run for 5 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
67.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus Lodge, broken up by Joejuan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
69.1%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 12 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
65.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Alex WeberSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
66.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+13
69.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 13 yds to the Vandy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
62.3%
Eric Swinney run for no gain to the Vandy 24Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
69.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. Brown, broken up by Randall HaynieSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+9
73.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Elijah Moore for 9 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+32
44.8%
Luke Logan 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
12 plays · 0 yds · 15:4058% → 86%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.3%
Kyle Shurmur run for 6 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
61.1%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Benito Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 26Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
55.4%
Khari Blasingame run for 6 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
64.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Miss 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+19
64.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 19 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) OLE MISS Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
80.4%
Isaiah Woullard run for 4 yds to the Vandy 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
79.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
86.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. Brown, broken up by Randall HaynieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:40
Luke Logan 32 yd FG GOOD
-37.4
TD · Q4 9:43
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 9 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)
-29.3
TD · Q3 0:49
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 3 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)
+24.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com