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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreUAB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:45 · Kyle Greenwell punt for 51 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for 3 yds to the TexAM 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:15: Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Andre Wilson for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +1.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:44: Trayveon Williams run for 9 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +1.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:40: Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +5.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:21: Seth Small 25 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +2.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:23: Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 25 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 4UAB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 11:15TA&M 4th & 2 at TA&M 33, tiedClose callPunted · 85.6% before the snapGo for it85.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:45UAB 4th & 14 at UAB 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snapGo for it14.5%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.6%average punt
- Q1 1:29UAB 4th & 8 at TA&M 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.3% before the snapGo for it15.1%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call15.3%64% to makePunt13.9%−1.4average punt
- Q2 14:39TA&M 4th & 11 at UAB 17, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snapGo for it84.3%−0.424% to convertField goalTheir call84.8%80% to makePunt82.9%−1.8average punt
- Q2 7:52UAB 4th & 10 at TA&M 27, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.6% before the snapGo for it14.1%−0.329% to convertField goalTheir call14.5%62% to makePunt12.2%−2.3average punt
- Q2 6:59TA&M 4th & 5 at UAB 45, up 10Close callPunted · 85.2% before the snapGo for it85.4%41% to convertField goal84.5%−0.925% to makePuntTheir call85.1%−0.3average punt
- Q2 0:27UAB 4th & 8 at UAB 3, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snapGo for it5.2%−2.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.8%average punt
- Q3 10:21TA&M 4th & 2 at UAB 7, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snapGo for it93.6%53% to convertField goalTheir call92.8%−0.991% to makePunt88.3%−5.4average punt
- Q3 5:48UAB 4th & 24 at TA&M 30, down 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.97% to convertField goalTheir call2.8%56% to makePunt2.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 11:23UAB 4th & 9 at TA&M 10, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−0.326% to convertField goal0.3%88% to makePunt-0.4%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UAB made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 11:15UAB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.4%97% to makeGo for two14.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:44TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.4%97% to makeGo for two85.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:40TA&M Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.5%97% to makeGo for two90.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:23TA&M Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:23UAB Touchdown, down 21 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call1.4%−<0.197% to makeGo for two1.4%45% to convert
- Q4 9:21TA&M Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:44UAB Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.8%97% to makeGo for two0.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUABDrive 2TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3613% → 14%
Q1 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+25
87.1%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Andre Wilson for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+13
87.1%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Andre Wilson for 13 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
87.1%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Andre Wilson, broken up by Tyrel DodsonSimilar
Q1 14:51
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+31
87.1%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 31 yds to the TexAM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
85.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Andre Wilson for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 11:15
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+3
85.9%
Braden Mann punt for 60 yds , Andre Wilson returns for 3 yds to the UAB 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
85.5%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 12 yds to the UAB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-7
85.6%
Tyler Johnston III sacked by Justin Madubuike and Landis Durham for a loss of 7 yards to the UAB 18Similar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 14
OWN 18
+3
85.7%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 51 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for 3 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5TD6 plays · 66 yds · 2:0985% → 87%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
85.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 24 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
85.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney Davis, PENALTY UAB pass interference (D.A. Williams) 15 yards to the UAB27, 1ST DOWN TAMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+17
85.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 17 yds to the UAB 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6MISSED FG12 plays · 49 yds · 4:1514% → 15%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 4 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
86.1%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kailon Carter for 13 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
85.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 15 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+17
85.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 17 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
85.2%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Andre Wilson, broken up by Charles OliverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7FG6 plays · 56 yds · 1:5086% → 86%
UABDrive 8MISSED FG17 plays · 59 yds · 6:4714% → 14%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+10
85.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Collin Lisa for 10 yds to the UAB 19Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
85.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Kailon Carter, broken up by Charles OliverSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+7
86.6%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Andre Wilson for 7 yds to the UAB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+25
86.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Collin Lisa for 25 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+6
85.6%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kailon Carter for 6 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
85.6%
Tyler Johnston III run for 10 yds to the TexAM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+6
85.2%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kailon Carter for 6 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 1
OPP 18
-9
85.5%
Team run for a loss of 9 yards to the TexAM 27 Andrew Smith Jr. fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 0:5387% → 87%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
86.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 9 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
86.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 8 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
86.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
50
0
87.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon Ausbon, broken up by Starling Thomas VSimilar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
50
-4
87.2%
Kellen Mond sacked by Quindarius Thagard for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10INT4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
87.4%
Tyler Johnston III pass intercepted Donovan Wilson return for no gain to the UAB 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11TD7 plays · 49 yds · 1:1088% → 94%
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+23
88.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 23 yds to the UAB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
88.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to J. Sternberger, PENALTY UAB pass interference (MarSean Diggs) 10 yards to the UAB2, 1ST DOWN TAMU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 2 yds · 0:135% → 6%
TA&MDrive 13MISSED FG2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1193% → 94%
TA&MDrive 14FG11 plays · 68 yds · 4:3992% → 97%
UABDrive 15MISSED FG13 plays · 45 yds · 4:334% → 3%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+14
96.1%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Andre Wilson for 14 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
95.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 18Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 12
OPP 18
0
95.2%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Donnie Lee, broken up by Donovan WilsonSimilar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 12
OPP 18
-8
95.7%
Tyler Johnston III sacked by Tyree Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 30 Tyler Johnston III fumbled, recovered by UAB Rishard Cook , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16TD8 plays · 70 yds · 3:2597% → 100%
Q3 2:23
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 25 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17INT9 plays · 49 yds · 2:230% → 0%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 8 yds to the UAB 33Similar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
99.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Andre Wilson for 11 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Kailon Carter, broken up by Myles JonesSimilar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-7
99.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Spencer Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the UAB 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 44
+26
99.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kailon Carter for 26 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+12
99.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass intercepted Deshawn Capers-Smith return for 12 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18FUMBLE1 play · -5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
99.8%
Kwame Etwi run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 11 Kwame Etwi fumbled, forced by Zachary Williams, recovered by UAB Broderick ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19TD5 plays · 11 yds · 2:150% → 1%
TA&MDrive 20TD6 plays · 56 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q4 9:21
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 20 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21TD11 plays · 90 yds · 4:370% → 0%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
100.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kailon Carter for 11 yds to the UAB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+6
100.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Justin Walker for 6 yds to the UAB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
100.0%
Tyler Johnston III run for 10 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
100.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Collin Lisa for 20 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
99.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kailon Carter for 16 yds to the TexAM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22END OF GAME9 plays · 59 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-15
99.7%
T. Williams rush for loss of 5 yards to the UAB20 (Stacy Keely), PENALTY TAMU illegal block (J. Sternberger) 15 yards to the UAB30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:40
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
+5.5
FG · Q3 10:21
Seth Small 25 yd FG GOOD
+2.4
TD · Q3 2:23
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 25 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
+1.8