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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreMIZ score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:27 · Joe Doyle punt for 41 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:39: Drew Lock pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 8 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann PAT BLOCKED) — MIZ win probability +8.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:15: Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 3 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +8.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:50: Ty Chandler run for 2 yds for a TD TENNESSEE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Misso 8 (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +10.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:15: Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +12.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q3 9:15: Carlin Fils-aime run for 1 yd Carlin Fils-aime fumbled, forced by Nate Anderson, recovered by Misso Joshuah Bledsoe , return for 39 yds (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +9.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 11:34MIZ 4th & 9 at TENN 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snapGo for it62.8%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call62.8%80% to makePunt62.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 11:27TENN 4th & 19 at TENN 12, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snapGo for it36.6%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.8%average punt
- Q1 9:26MIZ 4th & 5 at TENN 48, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snapGo for it62.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.4%average punt
- Q1 8:31TENN 4th & 17 at TENN 5, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snapGo for it36.7%−0.412% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.1%average punt
- Q1 1:15MIZ 4th & 5 at TENN 5, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.1% before the snapGo for it60.8%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call60.9%92% to makePunt58.3%−2.5average punt
- Q1 1:15TENN 4th & 11 at TENN 24, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snapGo for it36.3%−1.025% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.3%average punt
- Q2 15:00MIZ 4th & 18 at MIZ 39, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snapGo for it61.6%−1.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.7%average punt
- Q2 5:36TENN 4th & 4 at MIZ 4, down 6Close callKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snapGo for it36.6%40% to convertField goalTheir call36.0%−0.693% to makePunt30.1%−6.5average punt
- Q3 9:15TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 43, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it8.3%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.3%average punt
- Q3 4:11TENN 4th & 12 at TENN 35, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.3%−1.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%average punt
- Q4 12:02MIZ 4th & 7 at TENN 22, up 23Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.4%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call97.5%72% to makePunt95.9%−1.6average punt
- Q4 12:02TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 27, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q4 10:54MIZ 4th & 4 at TENN 44, up 26Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%48% to convertField goal98.9%−0.427% to makePuntTheir call99.1%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q2 10:45TENN Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.1%97% to makeGo for two43.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:15MIZ Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.6%97% to makeGo for two63.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:39MIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call70.2%97% to makeGo for two70.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:15MIZ Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.4%97% to makeGo for two79.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:50TENN Touchdown, down 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.7%97% to makeGo for two28.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:15MIZ Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.7%97% to makeGo for two82.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:53MIZ Touchdown, up 32 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMIZDrive 1FG12 plays · 58 yds · 3:2666% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
34.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 10 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+30
34.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 30 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+8
34.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 8 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
34.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel Hall (Alontae Taylor), PENALTY MU ineligible downfield on pass (Paul Adams) 5 yards to the UT23, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q1 11:27
3RD & 11
OWN 20
-8
35.4%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Tyree Gillespie for a loss of 8 yards to the Tenn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
TENNDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-10
36.3%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Walter Palmore for a loss of 10 yards to the Tenn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5FG11 plays · 47 yds · 5:2064% → 65%
Q1 6:35
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+9
36.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 9 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
36.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel Hall, PENALTY UT pass interference (Nigel Warrior) 15 yards to the UT23, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+9
36.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Barrett Banister for 9 yds to the Tenn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q1 1:15
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
35.4%
Joe Doyle punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:1565% → 63%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
35.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 12 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
34.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel Hall, broken up by Bryce ThompsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-9
35.2%
Drew Lock sacked by Kyle Phillips for a loss of 9 yards to the Misso 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 39
+2
36.6%
Corey Fatony punt for 47 yds , Marquez Callaway returns for 2 yds to the Tenn 41 MISSOURI Penalty, targeting (Tavon Ross) to the Tenn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8TD7 plays · 69 yds · 2:5037% → 47%
Q2 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+41
36.2%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 41 yds to the Misso 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
39.1%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Jordan Murphy for 5 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+13
39.1%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Josh Palmer for 13 yds to the Misso 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9TD7 plays · 66 yds · 2:2457% → 67%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
43.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 12 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
42.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Richaud Floyd, dropped pass, PENALTY MU ineligible downfield on pass (Nate Brown) 5 yards to the MU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+44
43.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Kam Scott for 44 yds to the Tenn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10FG7 plays · 61 yds · 2:3937% → 42%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+49
37.1%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 49 yds to the Misso 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
40.2%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Tim Jordan, PENALTY MU roughing passer (Walter Palmore) 8 yards to the MU8, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
39.0%
Keller Chryst sacked by Ronnell Perkins for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11TD14 plays · 75 yds · 3:5761% → 72%
Q2 5:36
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
39.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 11 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
37.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+18
37.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 18 yds to the Tenn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
28.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 8 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12INT6 plays · 35 yds · 0:3332% → 34%
Q2 0:57
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+76
33.8%
Keller Chryst pass intercepted DeMarkus Acy return for 76 yds to the Tenn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13TD4 plays · 11 yds · 0:2973% → 85%
TENNDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15TD6 plays · 58 yds · 2:0122% → 34%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+49
22.2%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 49 yds to the Misso 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
23.4%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Jordan Murphy for 6 yds to the Misso 3Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
22.8%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Ty Chandler (Terez Hall), PENALTY MU pass interference (Terez Hall) 1 yards to the MU2, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.5%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds for a TD TENNESSEE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Misso 8 (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16TD8 plays · 74 yds · 2:2972% → 86%
TENNDrive 17FUMBLE TD5 plays · 14 yds · 1:0018% → 7%
Q3 10:15
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
17.1%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Marquez Callaway, PENALTY MU pass interference (Jarvis Ware) 15 yards to the UT38, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+39
7.3%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 1 yd Carlin Fils-aime fumbled, forced by Nate Anderson, recovered by Misso Joshuah Bledsoe , return for 39 yds (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 9:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
6.8%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Josh Palmer for 10 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 2
OWN 45
-2
7.6%
Keller Chryst run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 43 Keller Chryst fumbled, recovered by Tenn Keller ChrystSimilar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
7.3%
Joe Doyle punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19FUMBLE6 plays · 55 yds · 0:0095% → 96%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
4.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Kam Scott, PENALTY UT roughing passer (Darrell Taylor) 15 yards to the MU43, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
4.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 5 yds Johnathon Johnson fumbled, forced by Baylen Buchanan, recovered by Tenn Baylen BuchananSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 4:11
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
4.6%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Jordan Murphy, broken up by DeMarkus AcySimilar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+39
4.6%
Joe Doyle punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the TENNESSEE 21 TENNESSEE Penalty, illegal motion (-5 Yards) to the Misso 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21FG13 plays · 52 yds · 6:1197% → 99%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
2.9%
PENALTY MU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY UT unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
3.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Daniel Parker for 9 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-5
3.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (Trystan Colon-Castillo) to the Misso 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
2.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Kendall Blanton for no gain to the Tenn 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+15
2.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Tyler Badie for 15 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:02
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+2
0.6%
Joe Doyle punt for 40 yds , Richaud Floyd returns for 2 yds to the Misso 29 TENNESSEE Penalty, targeting (Shanon Reid) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MIZDrive 25TD10 plays · 45 yds · 5:52100% → 100%
Q4 8:45
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+4
0.4%
TENNESSEE Penalty, offside defense (Paul Bain) to the Tenn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26END OF GAME5 plays · 43 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:15
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)
-12.5
TD · Q3 12:50
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds for a TD TENNESSEE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Misso 8 (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+10.6
FUMBLE · Q3 9:15
Carlin Fils-aime run for 1 yd Carlin Fils-aime fumbled, forced by Nate Anderson, recovered by Misso Joshuah Bledsoe , return for 39 yds (Tucker McCann KICK)
-9.8