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ARK

Arkansas 6 at Mississippi State 52

MSST
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD—MSST 100.0%Keytaon Thompson pass complete toAustin Williams for 33 yds for a TD(Jordan Lawless KICK)AWAY 6 - HOME 52 · Q4 5:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:20 · Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Austin Williams for 33 yds for a TD (Jordan Lawless KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Pregame prior+5.6Home team on offense+34.5Score differential+31.0Blowout margin+17.0Garbage-time factor+13.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:28: Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +2.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:20: Nick Gibson run for 8 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +3.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 11:19: Connor Limpert 32 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +2.4 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:42: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 34 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +5.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:41: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 4 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 3ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 8:27MSST 4th & 2 at ARK 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:44ARK 4th & 16 at MSST 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:01MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:21ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:31ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 33, down 10
    Close callPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:32ARK 4th & 4 at MSST 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:19ARK 4th & 12 at MSST 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:45ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 20, down 18
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:06ARK 4th & 6 at MSST 40, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:21ARK 4th & 9 at MSST 17, down 39
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:20MSST 4th & 13 at ARK 33, up 39
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:18ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 34, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:28ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 44, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q2 10:28MSST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:20MSST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:42MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:41MSST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:02MSST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:04MSST Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:20MSST Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1FG
16 plays · 81 yds · 6:2594% → 93%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
93.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
93.7%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+8
93.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 8 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
93.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
93.5%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+31
93.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 16 yds to the MISSSTATE 48 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Ryan Pulley) to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
93.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
93.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+5
93.1%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
93.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Darryl Williams) to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+20
92.9%
Aeris Williams run for 20 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
92.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 7Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
92.7%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 2Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
92.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q1 8:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
92.5%
Jace Christmann 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2MISSED FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:368% → 8%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
92.4%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 17 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
92.2%
Boyd, Rakeem rush for 4 yards to the ARKANSAS46, PENALTY MISSSTATE offside (Gay Jr., Willie) 5 yards to the ARKANSAS47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 5
OWN 47
+1
92.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for 1 yd to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
92.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for 3 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
91.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+27
91.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for 12 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jamal Peters) to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
91.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 12
OPP 21
-4
91.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 16
OPP 25
0
91.5%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 16
OPP 25
+43
91.7%
Connor Limpert 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3592% → 91%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
91.5%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+5
91.7%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
91.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+6
91.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 6 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
91.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
90.7%
Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Ark 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:289% → 9%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
90.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 5
OWN 21
-2
90.5%
Ty Storey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 19Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 7
OWN 19
-5
90.7%
Storey, Ty pass complete to O'Grady, Cheyenne for 8 yards to the ARKANSAS27, PENALTY ARKANSAS offside (O'Grady, Cheyenne) 5 yards to the ARKANSAS14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 12
OWN 14
0
90.6%
Ty Storey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 12
OWN 14
0
90.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 39 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for no gain to the MisSt 47 Deddrick Thomas fumbled, recovered by MisSt Jesse JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:3291% → 92%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
90.6%
Nick Gibson run for 9 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+5
90.7%
Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
90.5%
Nick Gibson run for 12 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
90.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 4
OPP 21
0
90.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+8
90.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the Ark 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
90.4%
Nick Gibson run for 2 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+4
90.1%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+5
89.7%
Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the Ark 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
89.9%
Nick Gibson run for no gain to the Ark 2Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:509% → 9%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.4%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
91.5%
Ty Storey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 8 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
91.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:4891% → 95%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
91.2%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+15
91.1%
Aeris Williams run for 15 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
91.7%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+9
91.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 9 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
91.8%
Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+15
91.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 15 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
91.9%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Mitchell, Osirus, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (McClellion, Jarques) 15 yards to the ARKANSAS9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q2 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
91.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
95.3%
Nick Gibson run for 8 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:456% → 6%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for 8 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
93.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
93.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
93.9%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+6
94.0%
Ty Storey sacked by Johnathan Abram for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 30 Ty Storey fumbled, recovered by MisSt Johnathan Abram , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the Ark 30 Johnathan Abram fumbled, recovered by Ark Ty Storey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9FG
15 plays · 42 yds · 2:486% → 8%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
94.0%
Deon Stewart run for 7 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+4
93.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
93.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 13 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
93.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Michael Woods for 7 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
93.3%
De'Vion Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+3
93.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for 3 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
93.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Michael Woods for 6 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+2
92.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Michael Woods for 2 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+4
93.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
92.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+7
92.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 7 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
93.1%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+36
92.4%
Connor Limpert 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.3%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:367% → 9%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
92.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+11
92.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for 11 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+47
92.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 47 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
91.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+4
91.4%
Ty Storey run for 4 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 4
OPP 6
-15
91.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (La'Michael Pettway) to the MisSt 21Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 19
OPP 21
+2
92.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 2 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+5
93.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the MisSt 14Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 12
OPP 14
+32
90.8%
Connor Limpert 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3091% → 97%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.1%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
91.3%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
91.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+17
91.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 17 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
91.8%
Dontavian Lee run for 2 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+34
96.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 34 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · -21 yds · 0:564% → 4%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Colton Jackson) to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
95.7%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
95.8%
Ty Storey pass incomplete ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Colton Jackson) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
95.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jordan Jones for no gain to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-16
95.9%
Reid Bauer run for a loss of 16 yards to the Ark 4 Reid Bauer fumbled, forced by Chris Rayford, recovered by MisSt Chris RayfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 4 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15INT
12 plays · 21 yds · 3:161% → 1%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.7%
Ty Storey pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-9
98.7%
Ty Storey sacked by Johnathan Abram and Chauncey Rivers for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 26 ARKANSAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ty Storey) to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+4
98.4%
Ty Storey run for 4 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+18
98.4%
Ty Storey pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 18 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
98.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+6
98.8%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-13
98.8%
De'Vion Warren sacked by Erroll Thompson for a loss of 13 yards to the MISSSTATE 46 ARKANSAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (De'Vion Warren) to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 23
OWN 46
0
98.7%
Ty Storey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 23
OWN 46
+7
98.7%
Ty Storey pass intercepted C.J. Morgan return for 7 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 0:5899% → 100%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
99.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
99.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+5
99.4%
Dontavian Lee run for 5 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
99.4%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Guidry, Stephen, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (McClellion, Jarques) 15 yards to the ARKANSAS15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 15 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) Scott Goodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback (Jordan Lawless KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
99.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 31 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.7%
Connor Noland run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Connor Noland pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 6
OPP 40
-10
99.9%
Connor Noland sacked by Willie Gay Jr. and Montez Sweat for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
50
+15
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 15 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+4
99.9%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+2
99.9%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 16 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
99.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+19
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Austin Williams for 19 yds for a TD (Jordan Lawless KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 1 yds · 3:200% → 0%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+8
99.9%
Connor Noland pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 8 yds La'Michael Pettway fumbled, recovered by Ark Deon Stewart for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
99.9%
Chase Hayden run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
99.9%
Connor Noland pass complete to Deon Stewart for no gain to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+2
99.9%
Connor Noland run for 2 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 9
OPP 17
-11
100.0%
Connor Noland sacked by Willie Gay Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Farrod Green for 11 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
99.9%
Dontavian Lee run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 3 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+17
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Dontea Jones for 17 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-12
100.0%
Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the Ark 27 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devonta Jason) to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 22
OPP 42
+9
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 9 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 13
OPP 33
0
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 13
OPP 33
+33
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Austin Williams for 33 yds for a TD (Jordan Lawless KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:320% → 0%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Maleek Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
100.0%
Maleek Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
100.0%
John Stephen Jones pass complete to Jordan Jones for 5 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+12
100.0%
Connor Noland run for 12 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
100.0%
John Stephen Jones pass incomplete ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-2
100.0%
Maleek Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
100.0%
John Stephen Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22Uncategorized
3 plays · 17 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
100.0%
Dontavian Lee run for 1 yd to the MisSt 23Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+3
100.0%
Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+13
100.0%
Dontavian Lee run for 13 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:42
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 34 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
+5
TD · Q2 5:20
Nick Gibson run for 8 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q3 7:41
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 4 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com