Try the model
MTSU

Middle Tennessee 23 at Kentucky 34

UK
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Kroger Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:32 · Max Duffy punt for 47 yds , Ty Lee returns for 4 yds to the MTnSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior+12.9Home team on offense+19.0Score differential+9.0Garbage-time factor+9.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Time remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:20: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 6 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:40: Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 11 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK) — UK win probability +6.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:30: Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK) — UK win probability +6.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:32: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 10 yds for a TD (Crews Holt PAT MISSED) — MTSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 11%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:18: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MTSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:36MTSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:35UK 4th & 16 at MTSU 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−2.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:20MTSU 4th & 1 at UK 6, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−1.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−6.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:40MTSU 4th & 13 at UK 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:39UK 4th & 4 at UK 15, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:04MTSU 4th & 5 at UK 16, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−4.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:32UK 4th & 13 at UK 22, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:21MTSU 4th & 1 at UK 39, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%−2.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:10UK 4th & 1 at UK 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.5%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:34MTSU 4th & 1 at UK 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.7%−4.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−6.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:01UK 4th & 2 at MTSU 14, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.7%−0.8
    84% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−5.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:47MTSU 4th & 10 at UK 10, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−0.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 13:33UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:36UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:20MTSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:40UK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:30UK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:32MTSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:18MTSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1INT TD
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:2715% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
85.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 16 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
85.1%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
85.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 10 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+66
84.9%
Brent Stockstill pass intercepted for a TD Mike Edwards return for 66 yds for a TD MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declined (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
84.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
84.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 7 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+3
84.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
84.9%
Zack Dobson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line Zack Dobson fumbled, forced by Mike Edwards, recovered by Kent Davonte Robinson , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:3385% → 86%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
50
+3
85.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
85.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 8 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
85.0%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete, broken up by Khalil BrooksSimilar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
85.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+8
85.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
85.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 17 yds to the MTnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
85.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
86.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.6%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
85.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 5 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
85.7%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Phil Hoskins for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 19 Brent Stockstill fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+1
85.7%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q1 8:36
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
85.8%
Matt Bonadies punt for 34 yds, downed at the Kent 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 5:1387% → 88%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
86.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 8 yds Lynn Bowden Jr. fumbled, forced by Rakavian Poydras, recovered by Kent Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+4
86.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
86.7%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
86.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+11
86.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
86.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
86.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+1
86.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-10
86.6%
Terry Wilson sacked by Khalil Brooks for a loss of 10 yards to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 16
OPP 20
+38
88.2%
Miles Butler 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1512% → 17%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
87.7%
[SHOT], MOBLEY, Chaton rush for 1 yard to the MT26, fumble forced by D. Robinson, fumble by MOBLEY, Chaton recovered by MT MOBLEY, Chaton at MT22, PENALTY MT clipping (OWENS, Angelo) 12 yards to the MT13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+4
87.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 4 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+34
87.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for 34 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
87.3%
Terelle West run for 4 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+11
88.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 11 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
87.8%
Brent Stockstill run for 2 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+1
87.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the Kent 31Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+16
87.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 16 yds to the Kent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
87.2%
Terelle West run for no gain to the Kent 15Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
87.2%
Chaton Mobley run for 8 yds to the Kent 7Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
87.5%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the Kent 6Similar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
82.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 6 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3384% → 91%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.5%
Asim Rose run for 7 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+36
83.9%
Terry Wilson run for 36 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+31
84.5%
Asim Rose run for 31 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
84.4%
Asim Rose run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
90.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 11 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+26
89.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 26 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
88.3%
Chaton Mobley run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 13
50
+5
89.0%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK offside defense (Quinton Bohanna) 5 yards to the UK45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+5
88.3%
Brent Stockstill run for 5 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
88.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 4 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
88.2%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the Kent 35Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-8
88.0%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Quinton Bohanna for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 43Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 17
OPP 43
+4
89.3%
Terelle West run for 4 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 13
OPP 39
0
89.4%
Matt Bonadies punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4391% → 92%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
90.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 13Similar
Q2 2:39
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
91.9%
Max Duffy punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:2611% → 13%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
88.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 14 yds to the Kent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
88.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Chaton MobleySimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-10
88.9%
[SHOT], STOCKSTILL, B. pass incomplete, PENALTY MT holding (LUCKETT, Amir) 10 yards to the UK31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 20
OPP 31
+11
89.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terelle West for 11 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
87.3%
Crews Holt 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
90.8%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
90.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+6
90.4%
Terry Wilson run for 6 yds to the Kent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 4:2590% → 97%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+29
89.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Justin Rigg for 29 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
90.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-2
89.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 8 yds to the KENTUCKY 43 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding (Justin Rigg) to the Kent 47Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+4
89.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+14
89.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 14 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
90.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 15 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
90.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+12
90.0%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:584% → 11%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.0%
Brent Stockstill run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
95.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 15 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
95.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 9 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
95.5%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
95.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 6 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-2
95.5%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Adrian Middleton for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 40Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+12
95.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 12 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
95.2%
Terelle West run for 8 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+6
95.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 6 yds to the Kent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
95.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 4 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
89.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 10 yds for a TD (Crews Holt PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.9%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
93.9%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 22 Terry Wilson fumbled, recovered by Kent Terry WilsonSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
93.5%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+4
93.2%
Max Duffy punt for 47 yds , Ty Lee returns for 4 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 5:038% → 18%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
91.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for 12 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
91.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 20 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
90.6%
[SHOT], STOCKSTILL, B. pass complete to LEE, Ty for 1 yard to the UK47 (Lonnie Johnson), PENALTY MT holding (CASEY, Gatlin) 10 yards to the MT42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 20
OWN 42
0
91.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Tavares Thomas, broken up by T.J. CarterSimilar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+9
92.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 9 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+10
91.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 10 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+24
91.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 24 yds to the Kent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
91.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 5 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+3
91.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the Kent 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+5
92.3%
Tavares Thomas run for 3 yds to the Kent 4 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Kash Daniel) to the Kent 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
91.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 5Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
88.9%
Asim Rose run for 7 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-3
89.9%
Asim Rose run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 36Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+5
88.6%
Asim Rose run for 5 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
88.4%
Terry Wilson run for no gain to the Kent 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
84.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Chaton Mobley for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 43Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+11
85.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 11 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
83.8%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-7
85.0%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 5:3190% → 95%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
90.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 7 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
90.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
50
+17
90.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 17 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
90.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+3
90.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+4
90.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
90.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+5
90.9%
[SHOT], Benny Snell rush for 1 yard to the MT17 (JONES, Jahmal), PENALTY MT offside defense (COLLINS, R.) 5 yards to the MT13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 1
OPP 13
-2
90.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+32
95.2%
Miles Butler 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19DOWNS
15 plays · 54 yds · 3:145% → 3%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.6%
[SHOT], STOCKSTILL, B. pass incomplete to CASEY, Gatlin, PENALTY UK holding (Chris Westry) 10 yards to the MT35, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
94.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Isiah Upton for 9 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+1
93.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 1 yd to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-11
93.5%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Chris Westry for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 21
OWN 34
+9
94.7%
Terelle West run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+5
94.6%
Brent Stockstill run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+15
97.0%
[SHOT], STOCKSTILL, B. sacked for loss of 5 yards to the MT43 (Phil Hoskins), PENALTY UK personal foul (Phil Hoskins) 15 yards to the UK37, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
96.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 8 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+19
95.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 19 yds to the Kent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
95.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for no gain to the Kent 10Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
96.6%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 10Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
-11
97.1%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Jamar Watson for a loss of 11 yards to the Kent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
97.0%
Team run for no gain to the Kent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:18
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)
-9.1
TD · Q3 10:30
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)
+6.9
TD · Q2 8:40
Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 11 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com