2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Sanford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreMASS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:19 · Cooper Garcia 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:59: Marquis Young run for 5 yds for a TD MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Geo 8 (Cooper Garcia KICK) — MASS win probability +0.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:55: Justin Fields pass complete to Riley Ridley for 11 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:10: D'Andre Swift run for 2 yds to the Geo 29 — UGA win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 7:19: Cooper Garcia 34 yd FG GOOD — MASS win probability +0.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:13: Justin Fields run for 3 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 13:58MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 11:22MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q1 4:09MASS 4th & 2 at MASS 33, down 14Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 11:18MASS 4th & 15 at MASS 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q2 7:19MASS 4th & 12 at UGA 17, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.121% to convertField goalTheir call1.3%80% to makePunt0.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 3:23MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 46, down 25Close callPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it2.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:15MASS 4th & 1 at UGA 40, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%70% to convertField goal0.5%−<0.134% to makePunt0.4%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:58UGA 4th & 3 at MASS 23, up 36Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%52% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%−<0.170% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 5:25MASS 4th & 14 at UGA 42, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.119% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.130% to makePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 1:40UGA 4th & 1 at MASS 26, up 39Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%71% to convertField goal99.9%−0.164% to makePunt99.6%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MASS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 13:01UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:24UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:59MASS Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.2%97% to makeGo for two2.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:55UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:13UGA Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:22UGA Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:38UGA Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:01UGA Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:01MASS Touchdown, down 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:50UGA Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:55MASS Touchdown, down 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMASSDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:501% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2TD3 plays · 66 yds · 0:3499% → 99%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
99.1%
Tyler Simmons run for 49 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.1%
Ross Comis sacked by D'Andre Walker and Jordan Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 30Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+6
99.1%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 6 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+2
99.0%
Ross Comis pass complete to Marquis Young for 2 yds to the UMass 38Similar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+2
99.0%
Travis Reynolds punt for 32 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 2 yds to the Geo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4TD10 plays · 68 yds · 4:3199% → 99%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 7 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+9
98.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 9 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
98.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Tyler Simmons for 10 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.9%
Elijah Holyfield run for 5 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5FUMBLE6 plays · 8 yds · 2:051% → 1%
MASSDrive 6TD5 plays · 16 yds · 2:011% → 2%
Q1 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.1%
Marquis Young run for 5 yds for a TD MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Geo 8 (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7TD8 plays · 80 yds · 2:5098% → 99%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
98.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 2 yds to the UMass 18 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the UMass 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
98.6%
Justin Fields pass complete to Riley Ridley for 11 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 2:272% → 2%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.4%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 4 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
98.3%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 17 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 6
50
-10
98.2%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UMass 40Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+1
98.2%
Ross Comis pass complete to Jordan Fredericks for 1 yd to the UMass 41Similar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 15
OWN 41
+9
98.2%
Travis Reynolds punt for 41 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 9 yds to the Geo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9TD1 play · 73 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10FG9 plays · 58 yds · 2:561% → 2%
Q2 9:15
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+14
98.9%
Ross Comis pass complete to Jordan Fredericks for 14 yds to the Geo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
98.9%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 2 yds to the Geo 13Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 8
OPP 13
-4
98.9%
Ross Comis sacked by Adam Anderson for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11TD4 plays · 72 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+54
98.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 54 yds to the UMass 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 2:422% → 2%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.5%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 5 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
98.3%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 4 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
98.3%
Ross Comis pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 4 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
98.0%
Travis Reynolds punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Terry Godwin at the Geo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13TD4 plays · 81 yds · 0:5399% → 100%
Q2 2:22
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+57
99.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 57 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14END OF HALF11 plays · 60 yds · 2:100% → 0%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Ross Comis pass complete to Marquis Young for 2 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
99.8%
Ross Comis pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 13 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
99.8%
Ross Comis pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 11 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
99.8%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 6 yds to the Geo 43Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+13
99.7%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 13 yds to the Geo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
99.8%
Ross Comis pass complete to Zak Simon for 12 yds to the Geo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15TD5 plays · 66 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
99.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 9 yds to the UMass 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16INT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:590% → 0%
UGADrive 17FG4 plays · 7 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
99.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to Ahkil Crumpton for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 33 yds · 4:250% → 0%
Q3 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
99.8%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 11 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
99.8%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
99.8%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Geo 48Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+11
99.9%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 11 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 6
OPP 34
-8
99.9%
Ross Comis sacked by J.R. Reed for a loss of 8 yards to the Geo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19TD11 plays · 80 yds · 5:17100% → 100%
Q3 2:23
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-2
99.9%
Justin Fields sacked by Jake Byczko for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.9%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 75 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21TD7 plays · 75 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
MASSDrive 22TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.9%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 4 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
99.9%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 45 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK) Cooper Garcia kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback (Theo Yongue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23Uncategorized13 plays · 52 yds · 8:25100% → 100%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
99.9%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Willie Erdman for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 48Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 12
OPP 48
-2
99.9%
Ian Donald-McIntyre run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 14
50
+15
99.9%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Prather Hudson for 15 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:10
D'Andre Swift run for 2 yds to the Geo 29
+0.8
FG · Q2 7:19
Cooper Garcia 34 yd FG GOOD
-0.5
TD · Q2 6:13
Justin Fields run for 3 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
+0.5