Try the model
UK

Kentucky 7 at Tennessee 24

TENN
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Neyland Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:49 · Max Duffy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Home team on offense+24.0Score differential+15.5Pregame prior−3.4Garbage-time factor+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.9Time remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:05: Tim Jordan run for 3 yds for a TD PENALTY UT unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY. KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +12.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:13: Timeout TENNESSEE, clock 00:13 — TENN win probability +3.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:00: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 39 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +12.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:49: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 2 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +11.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:56: Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 19 yds for a TD (Chance Poore KICK) — UK win probability +6.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UK made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00UK 4th & 1 at UK 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:06TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:32UK 4th & 8 at UK 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:09TENN 4th & 2 at UK 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:49UK 4th & 15 at TENN 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:49TENN 4th & 3 at UK 34, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    45.5%−0.8
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:04UK 4th & 5 at UK 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:17TENN 4th & 18 at TENN 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−2.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:54UK 4th & 21 at UK 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−3.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:09UK 4th & 17 at UK 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−2.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:58TENN 4th & 12 at TENN 29, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−2.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:57UK 4th & 4 at UK 40, down 17
    Close callPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:49UK 4th & 10 at UK 49, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:02TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 16, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:56TENN 4th & 2 at TENN 33, up 17
    Close callPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00UK 4th & 4 at TENN 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%−1.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:58UK 4th & 5 at TENN 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−6.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:59TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 2:05TENN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:00TENN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:49TENN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:56UK Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
41.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+4
41.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
41.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for 5 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
41.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
41.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
41.0%
Max Duffy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
41.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan Jennings, PENALTY UK pass interference (Derrick Baity) 15 yards to the UT27, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
42.0%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Drew Richmond) to the Tenn 22Similar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+12
41.9%
Ty Chandler run for 12 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-3
42.1%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 31Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
41.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Dominick Wood-Anderson, broken up by Mike EdwardsSimilar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
41.7%
Joe Doyle punt for 37 yds, fair catch by David Bouvier at the Kent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
42.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 32Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-3
42.3%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+5
42.5%
Terry Wilson run for 5 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+18
42.6%
Max Duffy punt for 41 yds , Marquez Callaway returns for 18 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:2543% → 45%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+38
43.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jordan Murphy for 38 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
43.8%
Ty Chandler run for 7 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+2
43.8%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+2
43.5%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 2 yds to the Kent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
43.8%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 10Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
43.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q1 8:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
43.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eli Wolf for 8 yds to the Kent 2Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
45.4%
Brent Cimaglia 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5MISSED FG
16 plays · 42 yds · 7:2055% → 51%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
45.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 24Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
45.4%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
45.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to David Bouvier for 9 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
45.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for 3 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
44.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
44.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
50
+8
44.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for 8 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+3
44.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
44.2%
Asim Rose run for 5 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
43.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 4 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
45.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tenn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-8
44.7%
Team run for a loss of 8 yards to the Tenn 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 36
0
46.0%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete, broken up by Bryce ThompsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 36
+3
46.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for 3 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 15
OPP 33
+51
48.6%
Chance Poore 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+25
47.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 25 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
49.4%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+1
49.4%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Kent 37Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+3
49.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 3 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
48.0%
Joe Doyle punt for 31 yds, downed at the Kent 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
49.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 4Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+2
49.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 6Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+2
50.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Tavin Richardon for 2 yds to the Kent 8 KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 5
OWN 8
0
51.0%
Max Duffy punt for 56 yds, downed at the Tenn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
50.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez Callaway, broken up by Lonnie Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
49.8%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 35Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-7
48.5%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
47.7%
Joe Doyle punt for 37 yds, fair catch by David Bouvier at the Kent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
49.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 9 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
48.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
48.2%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr., broken up by Baylen BuchananSimilar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-6
48.6%
Terry Wilson sacked by Darrell Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 41Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 16
OWN 41
0
50.5%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to David Bouvier, broken up by Theo JacksonSimilar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 16
OWN 41
-5
51.6%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 36Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 21
OWN 36
0
52.0%
Max Duffy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:4852% → 67%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+29
51.7%
Ty Chandler run for 29 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
54.0%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 4 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+11
54.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 11 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
54.5%
Tim Jordan run for no gain to the Kent 37Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+34
54.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tim Jordan for 34 yds to the Kent 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
66.7%
Tim Jordan run for 3 yds for a TD PENALTY UT unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY. KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:4836% → 34%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-7
63.8%
Terry Wilson sacked by Darrell Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 17
OWN 21
0
64.4%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Tavin Richardon, broken up by Bryce ThompsonSimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 17
OWN 21
0
65.4%
Terry Wilson run for no gain to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 17
OWN 21
0
66.0%
Max Duffy punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:0065% → 79%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
64.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
64.3%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+14
63.5%
Ty Chandler run for 14 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
66.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 17 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
79.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 39 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
78.2%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 29Similar
Q3 14:58
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
78.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Ty Chandler, broken up by Davonte RobinsonSimilar
Q3 14:58
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
77.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Ty Chandler TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:58
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+15
76.3%
Joe Doyle punt for 52 yds , Lynn Bowden Jr. returns for 15 yds to the Kent 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
78.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 33Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-5
79.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 16
OWN 28
+12
79.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 12 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q3 13:57
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
78.8%
Max Duffy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 4:1482% → 94%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
81.6%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 13Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 12
OWN 13
-5
81.5%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Drew Richmond) to the Tenn 8Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+13
81.4%
Ty Chandler run for 13 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+4
81.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 4 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+59
81.8%
Jordan Murphy run for 59 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
82.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez Callaway, broken up by Chris WestrySimilar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+11
82.8%
Tim Jordan run for 11 yds to the Kent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
82.8%
Tim Jordan run for 3 yds to the Kent 2Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 2 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
93.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 13 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
93.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
93.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 47Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
93.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.2%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
93.2%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
93.2%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete, broken up by Theo JacksonSimilar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
93.5%
Max Duffy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
95.1%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 9Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+2
95.0%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Tenn 11Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+5
95.0%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 5 yds to the Tenn 16Similar
Q3 6:02
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
94.7%
Joe Doyle punt for 44 yds, downed at the Kent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:044% → 11%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
95.6%
Terry Wilson run for 5 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+7
95.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for 7 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
95.6%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete, PENALTY UT offside defense (Paul Bain) 5 yards to the UT43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+4
95.3%
Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+20
95.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Tavin Richardon for 20 yds to the Tenn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
88.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 19 yds for a TD (Chance Poore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan Jennings, broken up by Mike EdwardsSimilar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.7%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 1 yd to the Tenn 26Similar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
91.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tim Jordan for 7 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
91.2%
Joe Doyle punt for 38 yds, downed at the Kent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20MISSED FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 3:378% → 6%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-9
91.7%
Terry Wilson sacked by Deandre Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 20 KENTUCKY Penalty, intentional grounding (Terry Wilson) to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+13
92.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 13 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 19
OWN 20
+7
92.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Tavin Richardon for 7 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
91.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+8
91.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Tavin Richardon for 8 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
91.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+4
91.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 4 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
91.9%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to David BouvierSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+5
92.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to David Bouvier for 5 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
91.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 19 yds to the Tenn 17 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
90.7%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Benny Snell Jr., broken up by Bryce ThompsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
90.7%
Terry Wilson run for 5 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
91.3%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Tavin Richardon, broken up by Marquill OsborneSimilar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
93.6%
Chance Poore 30 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Shy Tuttle N/A return for no gain to the Tenn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 30 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
94.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 9 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+8
95.2%
Tim Jordan run for 8 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
95.2%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 34Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+11
94.9%
Ty Chandler run for 11 yds to the Tenn 48 Ty Chandler fumbled, forced by Chris Oats, recovered by Kent Chris OatsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
95.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 16 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
94.4%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
94.6%
Terry Wilson sacked by Darrell Taylor for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 36 Terry Wilson fumbled, recovered by Tenn Darrell Taylor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
95.7%
Tim Jordan run for 3 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
95.8%
Tim Jordan run for 1 yd to the Tenn 40Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+22
95.8%
Tim Jordan run for 22 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
95.9%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the Kent 35 Madre London fumbled, forced by DeAndre Square, recovered by Kent Calvin Taylor Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24INT
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.0%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+20
96.1%
Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 20 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
95.9%
Terry Wilson sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UK46 (Shy Tuttle), PENALTY UT face mask (Shy Tuttle) 15 yards to the UT30, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-13
95.4%
Terry Wilson sacked by Darrell Taylor for a loss of 13 yards to the Tenn 43Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 23
OPP 43
+19
96.0%
Terry Wilson run for 19 yds to the Tenn 24Similar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+12
95.6%
Terry Wilson pass intercepted Marquill Osborne return for 12 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5397% → 99%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
97.3%
Tim Jordan run for 9 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+4
97.4%
Tim Jordan run for 4 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
97.4%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+2
97.3%
Tim Jordan run for 2 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+3
97.4%
Tim Jordan run for 3 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
98.7%
Joe Doyle punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
98.0%
Gunnar Hoak pass complete to David Bouvier for 5 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
98.0%
Gunnar Hoak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+8
98.0%
Gunnar Hoak pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 8 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
98.0%
Gunnar Hoak pass intercepted Marquill Osborne return for 1 yd to the Tenn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
98.9%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-2
98.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 39 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+12.9
TD · Q2 2:05
Tim Jordan run for 3 yds for a TD PENALTY UT unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY. KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q3 7:49
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 2 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com