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VAN

Vanderbilt 28 at Missouri 33

MIZ
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Misso 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior+9.6Home team on offense−8.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:31: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 21 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +16.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:51: Drew Lock pass complete to Damarea Crockett for 11 yds for a TD Timeout MISSOURI, clock 10:51 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MIZ win probability +7.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 7:29: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 2 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +17.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:39: Drew Lock pass complete to Daniel Parker for 20 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +17.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:18: Drew Lock run for 3 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +20.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 5VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 2:51VAN 4th & 3 at MIZ 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−1.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:51MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:46VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 26, down 7
    Close callPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:45VAN 4th & 13 at VAN 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:41MIZ 4th & 15 at VAN 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−1.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−5.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:36VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.5%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00MIZ 4th & 4 at VAN 21, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.0%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    46.6%−6.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00VAN 4th & 1 at MIZ 1, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    42.1%−7.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−27.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:18VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 26, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:38VAN 4th & 9 at MIZ 34, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    21.0%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−3.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:48MIZ 4th & 2 at VAN 13, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.3%−1.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−9.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 4VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:00VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:53MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:59VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:31VAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:51MIZ Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:29VAN Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:39MIZ Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:18MIZ Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0016% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
84.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Donaven Tennyson for no gain to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+65
83.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 65 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0783% → 83%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 11 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
83.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
83.1%
Damarea Crockett run for no gain to the Misso 36Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+35
83.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 35 yds to the Vandy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
83.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 4 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+8
83.2%
Damarea Crockett run for 8 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
83.2%
Crockett, Damar rush for 5 yards to the VANDY12 (Dayo Odeyingbo), PENALTY VANDY offside 5 yards to the VANDY12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+4
83.2%
Damarea Crockett run for 4 yds to the Vandy 8Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+8
83.0%
Damarea Crockett run for 8 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5418% → 22%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
82.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 30 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
82.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 10 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
82.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for no gain to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
82.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+21
82.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 21 yds to the Misso 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
82.1%
Kalija Lipscomb run for 10 yds to the Misso 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 4 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0079% → 80%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
79.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
79.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
79.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
79.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+17
79.5%
Drew Lock pass intercepted Jordan Griffin return for 17 yds to the Misso 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4923% → 24%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
77.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 4
OPP 24
0
77.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Misso 24Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+1
77.4%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the Misso 23Similar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
76.4%
Ryley Guay 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
77.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
77.0%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
76.8%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
76.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 47 yds, downed at the Vandy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
75.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Khari BlasingameSimilar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
75.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 3 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+6
75.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for 6 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q1 1:46
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
75.8%
Parker Thome punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Johnathon Johnson at the Misso 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0675% → 74%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
74.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+4
74.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+2
74.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 2 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+8
74.3%
Corey Fatony punt for 53 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 8 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
73.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
73.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-5
73.7%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (Jared Pinkney) to the Vandy 26Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 13
OWN 26
0
74.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
74.4%
Parker Thome punt for 44 yds , Johnathon Johnson returns for no gain to the Misso 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 3:2373% → 73%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
72.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 9 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+12
73.8%
Simi Bakare run for 12 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
74.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 8 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+7
74.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 7 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
74.8%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+14
74.8%
Drew Lock run for 14 yds to the Vandy 19 Drew Lock fumbled, forced by LaDarius Wiley, recovered by Misso Drew Lock for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
74.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 11 yds to the Vandy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
74.8%
Damarea Crockett run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 11Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
74.8%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-4
71.6%
Drew Lock sacked by Josh Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 15Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
73.0%
Tucker McCann 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 6:0527% → 45%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
72.9%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Cale Garrett for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 20Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+1
73.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 1 yd to the Vandy 21Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 13
OWN 21
+14
74.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 14 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
72.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Khari BlasingameSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
72.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 8 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
72.0%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the Vandy 44Similar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
72.7%
Kyle Shurmur run for 2 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
71.7%
Kalija Lipscomb run for 5 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+11
71.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Chris Pierce for 11 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
71.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 17 yds to the Misso 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
55.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 21 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 2:3156% → 57%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
55.9%
Damarea Crockett run for 15 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
57.3%
Damarea Crockett run for 4 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
57.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Daniel Parker for 7 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
58.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
58.5%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+7
58.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jalen Knox for 7 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
58.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 12 yds to the Vandy 27 Damarea Crockett fumbled, forced by LaDarius Wiley, recovered by Misso Damarea Crockett for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
59.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 2 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
57.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+4
56.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jalen Knox for 4 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
57.1%
Tucker McCann 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:0457% → 70%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
56.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 8 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
58.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Misso 29Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
56.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
57.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+15
58.7%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Knox, Jalen, PENALTY VANDY pass interference (J. Williams) 15 yards to the VANDY48, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
60.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
59.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+14
59.8%
Drew Lock run for 14 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
61.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 6 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+8
61.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 8 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
61.7%
Damarea Crockett run for 7 yds to the Vandy 10Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 10
-1
61.7%
Drew Lock run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 11Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+11
69.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Damarea Crockett for 11 yds for a TD Timeout MISSOURI, clock 10:51 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2236% → 58%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
64.3%
Donaven Tennyson run for 13 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+24
62.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 24 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
61.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Misso 37Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
61.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+34
61.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 34 yds to the Misso 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
59.3%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the Misso 2Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
59.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q3 7:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 2 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 2:4444% → 68%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
44.3%
Damarea Crockett run for 6 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+9
45.0%
Damarea Crockett run for 9 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
45.1%
Damarea Crockett run for 8 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+7
47.2%
Damarea Crockett run for 7 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
47.6%
VANDERBILT Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Vandy 48Similar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 5
OPP 48
+6
48.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
48.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 7 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+5
50.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
50.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Richaud Floyd for 10 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
67.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Daniel Parker for 20 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:3943% → 51%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
58.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 20 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
54.4%
Kyle Shurmur run for 2 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
54.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for 5 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+44
54.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 44 yds to the Misso 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
51.5%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the Misso 3Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
51.5%
Khari Blasingame run for 2 yds to the Misso 1Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.2%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the Misso 1Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
49.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Misso 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD
15 plays · 99 yds · 5:3856% → 83%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
56.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 9 yds to the Misso 10Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 1
OWN 10
0
57.4%
Larry Rountree III run for no gain to the Misso 10Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+7
55.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 7 yds to the Misso 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
57.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+12
57.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 12 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
58.5%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-5
58.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (Paul Adams) to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+9
57.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 9 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+15
60.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Daniel Parker for 15 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
63.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 7 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+4
63.5%
Damarea Crockett run for 4 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
65.1%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
65.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+25
62.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 25 yds to the Vandy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.4%
Drew Lock run for 3 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-11
69.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 4 yds to the Vandy 34 VANDERBILT Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kalija Lipscomb) to the Vandy 19Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+7
74.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Chris Pierce for 7 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+1
74.5%
Parker Thome punt for 42 yds , Richaud Floyd returns for 1 yd to the Misso 27 MISSOURI Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Misso 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0085% → 83%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
84.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 5 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 5
OWN 28
-2
84.7%
Damarea Crockett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 26Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+2
83.4%
Drew Lock pass intercepted Frank Coppet return for 2 yds to the Misso 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0034% → 27%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
66.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Chris PierceSimilar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
66.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Misso 34Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
68.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. BolarSimilar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
73.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. BolarSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21MISSED FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:4786% → 94%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
86.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+42
86.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 42 yds to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
88.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+2
91.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+4
90.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Damarea Crockett for 4 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+31
94.1%
Tucker McCann 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 55 yds · 1:4313% → 16%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
87.1%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Terry Beckner Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+26
89.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 26 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
87.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Chris Pierce for 9 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+11
84.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 11 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
85.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. BolarSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
85.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 3 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+7
85.5%
Kyle Shurmur run for 7 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
80.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 6 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
77.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
84.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared Pinkney, broken up by Cam HiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:18
Drew Lock run for 3 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)
+20.6
TD · Q3 4:39
Drew Lock pass complete to Daniel Parker for 20 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)
+17.3
TD · Q3 7:29
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 2 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)
-17.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com