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LSU

LSU 24 at Arkansas 17

ARK
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:59 · Josh Growden punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Ark 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Home team on offense−35.7Pregame prior−5.0Score differential−16.5Garbage-time factor−9.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:24: Nick Brossette run for 12 yds for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK) — LSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:44: Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 13 yds for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK) — LSU win probability +10.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:37: Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +9.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:27: Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 32 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +19.9 pts (now 26%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:27: Connor Limpert kickoff for 64 yds , Clyde Edwards-Helaire return for 25 yds to the LSU 41 — LSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 8 of 10LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:31ARK 4th & 20 at ARK 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:46LSU 4th & 10 at ARK 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    76.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:39ARK 4th & 18 at ARK 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:24ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:33LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:53ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:47LSU 4th & 22 at LSU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:48ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:36ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:39LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 35, up 14
    Close callPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:31LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 33, up 11
    Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:51ARK 4th & 18 at ARK 16, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−2.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:08ARK 4th & 6 at LSU 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−1.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:12LSU 4th & 6 at ARK 22, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−4.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:45ARK 4th & 13 at ARK 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:53LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 39, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:37ARK 4th & 10 at LSU 11, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−2.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:59LSU 4th & 5 at ARK 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    92.2%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:00LSU 4th & 1 at ARK 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−1.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−4.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 2LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:30LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:24LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:44LSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:37ARK Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:27ARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 2:1923% → 24%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
22.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
23.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Brian Wallace) to the Ark 22Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
23.3%
Ty Storey run for 6 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-8
23.5%
Ty Storey sacked by Kary Vincent Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 20Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-5
23.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (De'Jon Harris) to the Ark 15Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
23.8%
Reid Bauer punt for 38 yds, downed at the LSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:2476% → 75%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
23.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 13 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
23.9%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Nick BrossetteSimilar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
24.0%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-3
24.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Nick Brossette for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
24.8%
Josh Growden punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:5525% → 26%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
24.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 7 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+8
25.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 8 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
25.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 20Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 14
OWN 20
-1
25.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 19Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+2
25.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 2 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 13
OWN 21
-5
25.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Santos Ramirez) to the Ark 16Similar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 18
OWN 16
0
25.8%
Matthew Phillips punt for 24 yds, downed at the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD
1 play · 40 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
23.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 40 yds for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0024% → 24%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.2%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
24.1%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Michael WoodsSimilar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-7
24.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 44 yds , Jonathan Giles returns for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 22 Jonathan Giles fumbled, recovered by LSU Jonathan GilesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3776% → 75%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
24.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
24.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Dee AndersonSimilar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
24.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
25.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 42 yds, downed at the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3325% → 26%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
25.0%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
25.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+7
24.8%
Ty Storey run for 7 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
25.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 3:4875% → 74%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
25.2%
Nick Brossette run for 7 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+2
24.9%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+6
25.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 6 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
25.0%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-5
24.6%
Joe Burrow sacked by Michael Taylor II for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 33 Joe Burrow fumbled, recovered by LSU Joe Burrow , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-11
25.9%
Joe Burrow sacked by Armon Watts for a loss of 11 yards to the LSU 22Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 22
OWN 22
+4
26.4%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 46 yds , Deon Stewart returns for 4 yds to the Ark 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4226% → 26%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
26.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
26.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for 2 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-7
26.7%
Deon Stewart run for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
25.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 7:1274% → 82%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
26.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
25.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+4
26.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
26.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+1
25.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+5
25.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
25.4%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+7
25.2%
Nick Brossette run for 7 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
24.3%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+16
24.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 16 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
24.0%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-10
24.0%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Jefferson, Justin, PENALTY LSU holding (Charles, Saahdiq) 10 yards to the ARKANSAS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 17
OPP 28
+16
24.3%
Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Michael Taylor II) to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
24.0%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
17.9%
Nick Brossette run for 12 yds for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:3419% → 19%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
19.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for 10 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
20.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 3 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-5
20.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jordan Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+5
18.7%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Devin White) to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
19.7%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
19.3%
Reid Bauer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:4882% → 83%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
18.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+5
18.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+5
17.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
16.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 9 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
16.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-4
16.6%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 48 yds , Deon Stewart returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 31 LSU Penalty, Illegal Batting (-10 Yards) to the Ark 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0317% → 18%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
17.4%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (13 Yards) to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
18.0%
Ty Storey run for 2 yds to the Ark 38 Ty Storey fumbled, forced by Michael Divinity Jr., recovered by LSUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+24
14.4%
Joe Burrow sacked by McTelvin Agim for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 33 Joe Burrow fumbled, forced by McTelvin Agim, recovered by Ark Dre Greenlaw , return for 0 yards , return for 24 yds to the LSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:1419% → 23%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
19.0%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+27
18.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 27 yds to the LSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
17.7%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
23.0%
Connor Limpert 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1979% → 78%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
20.9%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
21.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
21.7%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:3521% → 19%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
21.1%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
20.9%
Ty Storey run for no gain to the Ark 24Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-8
19.8%
Ty Storey sacked by Grant Delpit for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 16Similar
Q3 11:51
4TH & 18
OWN 16
0
19.3%
Reid Bauer punt for 43 yds, downed at the LSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 1:4681% → 91%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
19.4%
Justin Jefferson run for 3 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+8
19.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 8 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+35
18.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 35 yds to the Ark 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
8.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 13 yds for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 27 yds · 3:2811% → 11%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.2%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
11.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 21 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
12.2%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Rakeem BoydSimilar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
11.9%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+11
11.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 11 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
12.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
11.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 1 yd to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+3
11.5%
Ty Storey run for 3 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 6
OPP 39
-9
11.3%
Ty Storey sacked by Glen Logan for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20FG
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:4393% → 97%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+26
7.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 26 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
6.5%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+3
6.4%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-2
6.2%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 14
OPP 30
+8
6.2%
Joe Burrow run for 8 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
3.0%
Cole Tracy 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:224% → 4%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.1%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
4.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Michael Woods for 14 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
4.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
3.8%
Ty Storey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
3.8%
Ty Storey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
3.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3798% → 98%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
2.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-4
2.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+11
2.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 11 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
2.3%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:073% → 12%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
3.2%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
3.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for no gain to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+31
2.7%
Ty Storey pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 31 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+34
3.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 23 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Face Mask (11 yards) (Terrence Alexander) to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
3.2%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
3.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for no gain to the LSU 11Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
2.7%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+11
11.7%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:2193% → 94%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
7.5%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+22
7.0%
Nick Brossette run for 7 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Dre Greenlaw) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
50
+1
6.1%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
5.8%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
5.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Dee AndersonSimilar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
5.6%
Josh Growden punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Ark 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
8.0%
Ty Storey pass intercepted Kary Vincent Jr. return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:3895% → 95%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
50
+2
5.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+14
4.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 14 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
4.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
4.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Jacory WashingtonSimilar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+10
4.4%
Joe Burrow run for 10 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 1
OPP 25
0
4.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:235% → 26%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
4.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for 9 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+19
4.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 19 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
5.0%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
5.0%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'Grady for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kary Vincent Jr.) to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
5.6%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Grayson GunterSimilar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
25.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 32 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 28Uncategorized
11 plays · 58 yds · 5:0989% → 96%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
10.7%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+6
10.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Tory Carter for 6 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+14
10.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 14 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
8.1%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+16
7.8%
Joe Burrow run for 16 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
6.9%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+16
4.1%
Nick Brossette run for 16 yds to the Ark 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
4.1%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
3.6%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the Ark 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:27
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 32 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)
+19.9
TD · Q3 9:44
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 13 yds for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK)
-10.1
TD · Q4 12:37
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)
+9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com