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MSST

Mississippi State 0 at Alabama 24

ALA
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:54 · Tucker Day punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior+30.1Home team on offense+9.8Score differential+3.0Garbage-time factor+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:48: Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +1.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 7:30: Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 31 — MSST win probability +0.8 pts (now 8%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:26: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 14 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +4.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:04: Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 00:04 — ALA win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Joseph Bulovas kickoff for 59 yds — MSST win probability +0.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 8:42MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:57ALA 4th & 7 at MSST 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:17MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:54MSST 4th & 22 at MSST 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00MSST 4th & 22 at ALA 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:40MSST 4th & 10 at midfield, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:10MSST 4th & 12 at ALA 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:34ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 33, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:34MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 42, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:05ALA 4th & 18 at ALA 21, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:57MSST 4th & 6 at ALA 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:33ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 40, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:03MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 42, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:11ALA 4th & 14 at MSST 31, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:27MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 28, down 24
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:10ALA 4th & 2 at MSST 2, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:40ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:48ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:26ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:0793% → 92%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
92.8%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+12
92.7%
Damien Harris run for 12 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
92.6%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
92.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 5 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+10
92.3%
Josh Jacobs run for 10 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
92.2%
Damien Harris run for 7 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+5
92.1%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+25
92.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 25 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.4%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:518% → 8%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
92.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 8 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
92.0%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
92.0%
Tucker Day punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 5:4592% → 93%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+21
91.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 21 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
92.0%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
92.0%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 1 yd to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+12
91.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 12 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
91.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 4 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+8
91.8%
Josh Jacobs run for 8 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
91.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
91.7%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
91.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
91.5%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 10 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
91.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 10 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
91.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.0%
Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:258% → 8%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.4%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Isaiah Buggs for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
92.2%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Quinnen Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+12
92.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 12 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 3:2793% → 93%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
92.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 5
OWN 31
-6
92.7%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Chauncey Rivers for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+12
92.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 12 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
92.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 11 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
92.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 7 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+4
92.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 4 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
92.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
92.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
92.7%
Josh Jacobs run for no gain to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
93.0%
Mike Bernier punt for 37 yds, downed at the MisSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:337% → 7%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
92.6%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+4
92.7%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
92.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 3
OWN 19
0
92.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 3
OWN 19
-4
92.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
92.6%
Tucker Day punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:3593% → 93%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
93.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chris Rayford) to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
93.3%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
93.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 8 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+5
92.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
93.0%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-3
93.1%
Tua Tagovailoa run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 29 Tua Tagovailoa fumbled, recovered by MisSt Braxton HoyettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 1:368% → 7%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
92.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-9
92.3%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by LaBryan Ray and Raekwon Davis for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 17
OWN 22
-5
92.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 17Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 22
OWN 17
0
92.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 22
OWN 17
0
92.7%
Tucker Day punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · -11 yds · 0:4093% → 93%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
93.1%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
92.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-11
92.7%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Willie Gay Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the Alab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:5493% → 97%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
93.2%
Josh Jacobs run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+15
93.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 15 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
97.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 14 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11DOWNS
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:204% → 2%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.4%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+38
96.4%
Kylin Hill run for 38 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
96.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+23
96.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 23 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
95.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Alab 12Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 11 yds to the Alab 1 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Deddrick Thomas) to the Alab 11Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
95.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 9
OPP 11
-5
96.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Nick Fitzgerald) to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 14
OPP 16
-8
96.4%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jared Mayden for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 22
OPP 24
+41
98.1%
Jace Christmann 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:154% → 3%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
96.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q3 14:25
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+12
96.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
50
+4
96.4%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-4
96.4%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 10
50
0
96.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 10
50
0
96.8%
Tucker Day punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:1097% → 98%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
97.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 9 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+13
97.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 13 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
97.7%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-10
97.7%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Willie Gay Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 19
OWN 35
+3
97.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass intercepted Willie Gay Jr. return for 3 yds to the Alab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:003% → 3%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
96.9%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-12
97.0%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Dylan Moses for a loss of 12 yards to the Alab 48Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 18
OPP 48
+11
97.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Dontea Jones for 11 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 7
OPP 37
-5
97.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Greg Eiland) to the Alab 42Similar
Q3 8:10
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
97.5%
Tucker Day punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2698% → 98%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
97.6%
Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+10
97.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 10 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.8%
Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
97.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
97.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 5 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
97.8%
Mike Bernier punt for 35 yds, downed at the MisSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:563% → 2%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
97.5%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
97.8%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+2
97.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
98.0%
Tucker Day punt for 29 yds, downed at the Alab 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:2198% → 98%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
98.3%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
98.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-9
98.3%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Cameron Dantzler for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 21Similar
Q3 2:05
4TH & 18
OWN 21
0
98.2%
Mike Bernier punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:012% → 1%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
98.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 20 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MisSt Nick FitzgeraldSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+7
98.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 7 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+1
98.6%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
98.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1799% → 99%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
98.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
98.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-2
99.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to Josh Jacobs for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
98.9%
Mike Bernier punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:241% → 1%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
98.9%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-4
98.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+5
99.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 5 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
99.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21FG
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:4499% → 99%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
99.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 5 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+10
99.1%
Damien Harris run for 10 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
99.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 14
OPP 31
0
99.2%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 14
OPP 31
0
99.1%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Damien HarrisSimilar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 14
OPP 31
+49
99.1%
Joseph Bulovas 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:341% → 1%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 9 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 28
0
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
99.3%
Tucker Day punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 54 yds · 6:1099% → 100%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.3%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+8
99.4%
Josh Jacobs run for 8 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
99.4%
Josh Jacobs run for 12 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.4%
Josh Jacobs run for 5 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+2
99.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+17
99.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 17 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.5%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the MisSt 4Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.6%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.6%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the MisSt 2Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.7%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24Uncategorized
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
99.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 2
-1
99.6%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 1Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 11
OWN 1
+7
99.6%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:26
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 14 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+4.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:04
Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 00:04
+1.7
TD · Q1 2:48
Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com