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Louisiana Tech 3 at Mississippi State 45

MSST
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:20 · J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay Powell
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Pregame prior+13.7Home team on offense+34.6Score differential+28.7Blowout margin+16.4Garbage-time factor+7.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:02: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 36 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +0.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 3:15: Bailey Hale 46 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +1.0 pts (now 7%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:07: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 23 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +1.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 5:23: Jace Christmann 47 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +2.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:30: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 10 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:38LT 4th & 5 at LT 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:10MSST 4th & 1 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:15LT 4th & 8 at MSST 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00LT 4th & 8 at MSST 46, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:23MSST 4th & 17 at LT 30, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:13LT 4th & 8 at MSST 44, down 21
    Close callPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:56LT 4th & 7 at MSST 48, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:15MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 40, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:42LT 4th & 14 at LT 16, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:12LT 4th & 3 at LT 32, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:21MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 45, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00LT 4th & 1 at LT 35, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:20LT 4th & 7 at MSST 7, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:35MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 36, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:38MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:02MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:07MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:30MSST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:12MSST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:20MSST Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:2294% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+37
94.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 37 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
94.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 4 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+10
94.2%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked for loss of 5 yards to the LATECH34 (BRADFORD, Jordan), PENALTY LATECH holding (SNEED, L'Jarius) 10 yards to the LATECH19, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
94.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the LaTch 11Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+11
93.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 11 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.8%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 6 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
93.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jaqwis Dancy for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 30Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
93.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:38
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+14
93.9%
Davan Dyer punt for 43 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for 14 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:0894% → 94%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
93.7%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
93.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
93.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell (LEWIS, Darryl), PENALTY LATECH offside defense (FERGUSON, Jaylon) 5 yards to the MS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+4
93.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 1
50
+2
93.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
93.7%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
93.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+6
93.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
94.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 36 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4FG
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:416% → 7%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
93.8%
Kam McKnight run for 11 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
93.7%
Kam McKnight run for 4 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+7
93.6%
Kam McKnight run for 7 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
93.6%
MCKNIGHT, Kameron rush for 1 yard to the MS41 (Erroll Thompson;Kobe Jones), PENALTY MS substitution infraction 5 yards to the MS37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 5
OPP 37
+6
93.6%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
93.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
93.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 2 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
93.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jaqwis Dancy for no gain to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+46
92.7%
Bailey Hale 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0493% → 95%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
92.9%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
92.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 10 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+24
93.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 24 yds to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
93.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+23
94.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 23 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
94.5%
J'Mar Smith run for 3 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+3
94.5%
Kam McKnight run for 3 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+25
94.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Kam McKnight for 25 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
94.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
94.3%
Kam McKnight run for 2 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
94.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
94.5%
Davan Dyer punt for 34 yds, downed at the MisSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 6:2895% → 97%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
94.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry, broken up by L'Jarius SneedSimilar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+7
94.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+13
94.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Austin Williams for 13 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
94.7%
Nick Gibson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+13
94.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 13 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
94.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
94.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+6
94.6%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
94.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
94.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 7 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+8
94.1%
Kylin Hill run for 8 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
94.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
94.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-7
94.2%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jordan Baldwin for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 30Similar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 17
OPP 30
+47
96.8%
Jace Christmann 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
95.9%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 12 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
95.9%
Kam McKnight run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 3
50
+4
95.6%
Kam McKnight run for 4 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
95.6%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
95.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy Veal, broken up by Jamal PetersSimilar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
95.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
95.9%
Davan Dyer punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 2:4597% → 99%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
97.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
97.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+10
97.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jaylon Ferguson) to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
97.3%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
97.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Nick Gibson for no gain to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+19
97.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 19 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
97.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas, broken up by Amik RobertsonSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+33
97.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 33 yds to the LaTch 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
97.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-9
97.5%
Dontavian Lee run for 1 yd to the LaTch 21 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the LaTch 31Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 19
OPP 31
+21
97.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 21 yds to the LaTch 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 10 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
98.9%
Kam McKnight run for 3 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+6
98.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 6 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
97.5%
Kam McKnight run for 1 yd to the LaTch 13Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+6
97.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 6 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+13
97.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to George Scott for 13 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
97.2%
Kam McKnight run for 4 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
96.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+13
96.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 13 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
97.1%
J'Mar Smith run for 4 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-1
96.3%
Justin Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
96.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 7
OPP 48
+34
96.9%
Davan Dyer punt for 39 yds, downed at the MisSt 9 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
99.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 14 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
99.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 15 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
99.6%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+1
99.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 16
OWN 37
-10
99.6%
Nick Fitzgerald rush for no gain to the MS37 (KITCHEN, Ephraim;SCOTT, Collin), PENALTY MS holding (Elgton Jenkins) 10 yards to the MS27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 26
OWN 27
+13
99.6%
Aeris Williams run for 13 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to George Scott, broken up by Chris RayfordSimilar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.7%
Kam McKnight run for 2 yds to the LaTch 22Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-6
99.7%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 16Similar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+27
99.7%
Davan Dyer punt for 48 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for 27 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+29
99.8%
Aeris Williams run for 29 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
SMITH, J'Mar pass complete to MCKNIGHT, Kameron for 17 yards to the LATECH42, out-of-bounds (Leo Lewis), PENALTY LATECH illegal touching (MCKNIGHT, Kameron) 0 yards to the LATECH25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Kam McKnight for 7 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy Veal, broken up by Mark McLaurinSimilar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Davan Dyer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Devonta Jason for 17 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Devonta JasonSimilar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-2
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
99.9%
Justin Henderson run for 5 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+6
99.9%
Justin Henderson run for 6 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
Justin Henderson run for 5 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
J'Mar Smith run for 4 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Davan Dyer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
2 plays · 81 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+62
99.9%
Nick Gibson run for 62 yds to the LaTch 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 19 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19DOWNS
16 plays · 58 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
Kam McKnight run for 5 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Kam McKnight run for 6 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 3 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jake Norris for 5 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+5
99.9%
Justin Henderson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.9%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+9
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 9 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
99.9%
Justin Henderson run for 11 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.9%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Jake NorrisSimilar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+10
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 10 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Griffin HebertSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for no gain to the MisSt 7Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q4 13:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+21
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 21 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
99.9%
Dontavian Lee run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Tucker Day punt for 42 yds, downed at the LaTch 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
100.0%
DeAndre Marcus run for 6 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+6
100.0%
DeAndre Marcus run for 6 yds to the LaTch 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
100.0%
DeAndre Marcus run for 3 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+29
100.0%
Aaron Allen pass intercepted Stephen Adegoke return for 29 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
100.0%
Robert Rivers run for 5 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+5
100.0%
Robert Rivers run for 5 yds to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
100.0%
Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-5
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 5:23
Jace Christmann 47 yd FG GOOD
+2.6
TD · Q2 0:30
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 10 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q1 0:07
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 23 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com