Try the model
ALA

Alabama 29 at LSU 0

LSU
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:32 · Josh Growden punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Pregame prior−26.5Home team on offense−6.3Score differential−2.8Garbage-time factor−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:58: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 15 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas PAT MISSED) — ALA win probability +1.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:15: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +8.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:05: Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 5 yds to the LSU 38 — LSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:36: Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 22 — ALA win probability +3.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:14: Tua Tagovailoa run for 44 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas PAT BLOCKED) — ALA win probability +5.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:48ALA 4th & 30 at LSU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:36LSU 4th & 13 at LSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:21LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:09ALA 4th & 8 at midfield, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:14LSU 4th & 2 at ALA 42, down 6
    Close callPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:07ALA 4th & 1 at LSU 16, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    75.2%−1.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−4.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:59ALA 4th & 3 at LSU 5, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%−0.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    72.0%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:32LSU 4th & 14 at ALA 47, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:42LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 5, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:42LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 38, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:03LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 29, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:41ALA 4th & 10 at LSU 40, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    87.4%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:11LSU 4th & 14 at LSU 22, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:31LSU 4th & 8 at ALA 38, down 22
    Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−0.4
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:41ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 43, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:45LSU 4th & 11 at ALA 15, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:58ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:15ALA Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:14ALA Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:42ALA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
16 plays · 41 yds · 5:0787% → 85%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
12.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 14 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
12.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 9 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+6
12.9%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
13.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 5 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+12
13.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 12 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
13.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
13.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs III, broken up by Kristian FultonSimilar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+5
13.7%
LSU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+10
13.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 10 yds to the LSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-8
13.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 22Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 18
OPP 22
0
14.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Josh Jacobs, broken up by Rashard LawrenceSimilar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 18
OPP 22
-5
14.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Jonah Williams) to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 23
OPP 27
-5
14.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Jerry Jeudy) to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 28
OPP 32
-2
14.6%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 30
OPP 34
0
15.0%
Mike Bernier punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:0915% → 16%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
15.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Foster Moreau for 7 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
15.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Nick Brossette for 6 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
15.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin Jefferson, broken up by Anfernee JenningsSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-3
15.8%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
15.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin Jefferson, broken up by Saivion SmithSimilar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
15.7%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 2:3284% → 85%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
16.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 17 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
16.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 14 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+28
16.1%
Najee Harris run for 28 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
16.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 4 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
15.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 15 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1416% → 16%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
16.2%
Joe Burrow sacked by Quinnen Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 19Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+8
16.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 8 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
16.4%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Nick BrossetteSimilar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
16.3%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:0784% → 83%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
16.5%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+28
17.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 28 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
16.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 8
50
0
16.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 8
50
0
16.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q1 1:09
4TH & 8
50
0
17.1%
Mike Bernier punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:4618% → 19%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
17.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 17Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 11
OWN 17
0
17.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen Sullivan, broken up by Saivion SmithSimilar
Q1 0:29
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+15
17.6%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Anderson, Dee, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Smith, Saivion) 15 yards to the LSU32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
18.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
50
0
19.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin Jefferson, broken up by Patrick Surtain IISimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
50
+8
19.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 8 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
19.2%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
19.0%
Josh Growden punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7FG
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:0182% → 83%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
18.2%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
17.5%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 10 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
17.5%
Damien Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+18
17.4%
Damien Harris run for 18 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
17.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Damien Harris for 4 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
17.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 3 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+5
17.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 5 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
17.5%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
17.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Damien Harris, broken up by Michael Divinity Jr.Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+6
17.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 6 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+4
18.4%
Josh Jacobs run for 4 yds to the LSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
17.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 3 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+4
17.1%
Josh Jacobs run for 4 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
17.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
17.1%
Joseph Bulovas 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 18 yds · 2:2319% → 18%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
18.6%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
17.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 8 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
18.4%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
18.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 8 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
19.3%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
19.4%
Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
19.4%
Joe Burrow run for 1 yd to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-5
19.5%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Saahdiq Charles) to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 14
OPP 47
0
19.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 14
OPP 47
0
18.4%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Foster MoreauSimilar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
17.9%
Josh Growden punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9INT
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:5382% → 83%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
18.2%
Najee Harris run for 11 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
18.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+13
18.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 13 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
17.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass intercepted Todd Harris Jr. return for no gain to the LSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1318% → 18%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
18.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 8
-7
18.3%
Joe Burrow sacked by Anfernee Jennings for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 13
OWN 1
+4
17.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 9
OWN 5
-3
17.6%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 46 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 46 Jaylen Waddle fumbled, recovered by AlabSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 0:1483% → 90%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+29
16.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 29 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Breiden Fehoko) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
8.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
9.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2313% → 13%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
13.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 5 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
13.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
13.4%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
12.8%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:3591% → 90%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
9.4%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-3
9.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Damien Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 19Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+17
11.1%
Damien Harris run for 17 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
9.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
9.8%
Josh Jacobs run for 7 yds to the Alab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4712% → 11%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.0%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-7
12.0%
Joe Burrow sacked by Quinnen Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 21Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+8
11.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 8 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
11.4%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 53 yds, downed at the Alab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:0990% → 90%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+30
10.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 30 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
9.1%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
8.9%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
8.8%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
8.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
8.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
8.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
9.7%
Mike Bernier punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:2411% → 11%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
11.0%
Joe Burrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 10Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+16
10.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 16 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
11.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Jonathan Giles, broken up by Shyheim CarterSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-4
10.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 22Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 14
OWN 22
0
10.6%
Joe Burrow run for no gain to the LSU 22Similar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 14
OWN 22
0
10.5%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:5191% → 97%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
9.3%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-5
9.4%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Ed Alexander for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 23Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+16
9.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 16 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
8.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 15 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
8.4%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
8.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+44
2.6%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 44 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:294% → 4%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
3.8%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+1
3.6%
Joe Burrow run for 1 yd to the Alab 38Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
3.5%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Foster MoreauSimilar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
3.5%
Josh Growden punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:2998% → 98%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
2.4%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+21
2.3%
Damien Harris run for 21 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
2.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
2.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
2.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Damien Harris for 5 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 1:41
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
2.2%
Mike Bernier punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20MISSED FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 5:503% → 2%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
2.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 22Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+23
2.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 23 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
2.8%
Burrow, Joe pass sacked for loss of 7 yards to the LSU38 (Buggs, Isaiah), PENALTY ALABAMA face mask (Davis, Raekwon) 15 yards to the ALABAMA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
2.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
2.9%
Joe Burrow run for 8 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+6
3.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-8
2.6%
Joe Burrow sacked by Quinnen Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 18
OPP 34
+11
2.3%
Joe Burrow run for 11 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+9
2.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 9 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
2.4%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the Alab 14Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
2.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Nick Brossette for 1 yd to the Alab 13Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-2
2.2%
Joe Burrow sacked by Christian Miller for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 15Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
2.0%
Cole Tracy 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 4:5899% → 100%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
1.4%
Najee Harris run for 29 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
1.1%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+24
1.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 24 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
1.0%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 2
OPP 12
0
1.0%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the LSU 12Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+4
0.9%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the LSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
0.8%
Damien Harris run for 7 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.1%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22INT
12 plays · 63 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
0.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 30 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-2
0.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Nick Brossette for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+12
0.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 12 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
0.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
0.1%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Sullivan, Stephen, PENALTY ALABAMA offside 5 yards to the ALABAMA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+23
0.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 23 yds to the Alab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
0.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q4 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
0.2%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Chasen Hines) to the Alab 12Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
0.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Clyde Edwards-HelaireSimilar
Q4 3:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
0.1%
Joe Burrow pass intercepted, touchback. Mack Wilson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23Uncategorized
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
0.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 19Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+16
0.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 16 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
0.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
0.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:15
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q3 5:14
Tua Tagovailoa run for 44 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas PAT BLOCKED)
-5.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:36
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 22
-3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com