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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:32 · Rodrigo Blankenship 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:28: D'Andre Swift run for 20 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +6.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:20: Elijah Holyfield run for 4 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +9.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:56: D'Andre Swift run for 83 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +7.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:45: Benny Snell Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD (Chance Poore KICK) — UK win probability +9.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:01: Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 31 yds for a TD (Chance Poore KICK) — UK win probability +7.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 12:41UK 4th & 6 at UK 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snapGo for it28.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.9%average punt
- Q1 6:52UK 4th & 13 at UK 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snapGo for it28.6%−0.321% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.9%average punt
- Q1 4:58UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 22, up 7Close callPunted · 70.6% before the snapGo for it70.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 8:24UK 4th & 14 at UGA 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.4% before the snapGo for it27.7%−1.516% to convertField goalTheir call29.2%81% to makePunt24.3%−4.8average punt
- Q2 1:22UK 4th & 2 at UK 33, down 11Close callPunted · 23.4% before the snapGo for it23.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 8:49UK 4th & 6 at UK 29, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snapGo for it12.3%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.9%average punt
- Q4 11:44UGA 4th & 5 at UK 5, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.4%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call95.4%92% to makePunt91.6%−3.8average punt
- Q4 3:32UGA 4th & 12 at UK 21, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snapGo for it95.6%−0.822% to convertField goalTheir call96.4%74% to makePunt93.5%−2.9average punt
- Q4 1:30UK 4th & 1 at UGA 22, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.7%71% to convertField goal2.3%−0.472% to makePunt1.8%−0.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:37UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.9%97% to makeGo for two70.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:28UGA Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.3%97% to makeGo for two75.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:20UGA Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.6%97% to makeGo for two86.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:56UGA Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:45UK Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.4%97% to makeGo for two6.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:01UK Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.4%97% to makeGo for two6.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUKDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1319% → 20%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
19.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 11 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
19.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 1 yd to the Kent 40Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+65
20.0%
Max Duffy punt for 48 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 65 yds to the Kent 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2TD4 plays · 23 yds · 1:5780% → 80%
Q1 10:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
19.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 4 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 3:3920% → 21%
Q1 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
20.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 3 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
20.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to David Bouvier for 5 yds to the Geo 43Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-8
21.3%
Terry Wilson sacked by Brenton Cox for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4579% → 78%
Q1 4:58
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
21.6%
Jake Camarda punt for 55 yds, fair catch by David Bouvier at the Kent 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5FUMBLE8 plays · 44 yds · 2:4021% → 23%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
21.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Zy'Aire Hughes for 14 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+16
21.9%
Wilson, Terry pass incomplete to Wagner, Ahmad, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Campbell, Tyson) 16 yards to the GEORGIA37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-11
23.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 4 yds C.J. Conrad fumbled, forced by Juwan Taylor, recovered by Geo Tyson Campbell KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Logan Stenberg) to the Geo 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6FUMBLE5 plays · 18 yds · 0:4679% → 79%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
21.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 6 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+20
21.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 20 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-8
20.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 34 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Kent Josh AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7FG17 plays · 50 yds · 7:4622% → 28%
Q2 14:18
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+9
23.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 9 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+14
24.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 14 yds to the Geo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 9
OPP 11
-5
25.9%
Terry Wilson sacked by Channing Tindall for a loss of 5 yards to the Geo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4773% → 80%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
26.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 36Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+16
27.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 16 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+9
26.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 9 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+4
26.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 4 yds to the Kent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-7
25.5%
Elijah Holyfield run for 3 yds to the Kent 10 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mecole Hardman) to the Kent 20Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 17
OPP 20
+20
19.6%
D'Andre Swift run for 20 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5720% → 20%
Q2 1:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
20.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to David Bouvier for 5 yds to the Kent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10FUMBLE9 plays · 56 yds · 1:0181% → 83%
Q2 1:09
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+17
18.6%
Jake Fromm run for 2 yds to the Geo 26 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (Phil Hoskins) to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+17
17.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 17 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
17.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 8 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+3
17.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 3 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-2
17.2%
Jake Fromm run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 29 Jake Fromm fumbled, recovered by KentSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 3 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12TD10 plays · 78 yds · 4:2181% → 92%
Q3 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+17
19.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 17 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+14
17.7%
D'Andre Swift run for no gain to the Kent 28 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (Darius West) to the Kent 14 for a 1ST down, Darius West ejected for targetingSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
8.1%
Elijah Holyfield run for 4 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2511% → 10%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-7
10.5%
Terry Wilson sacked by Jonathan Ledbetter for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 18 KENTUCKY Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Terry Wilson) to the Kent 18Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+5
10.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for 5 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+6
10.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 6 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
10.0%
Max Duffy punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Terry Godwin at the Geo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14TD2 plays · 85 yds · 0:4591% → 98%
UKDrive 15TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:012% → 11%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
1.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 9 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
1.4%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to C.J. Conrad, broken up by Natrez PatrickSimilar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+15
1.3%
Wilson, Terry pass incomplete to Wagner, Ahmad, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Baker, Deandre) 15 yards to the GEORGIA33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
1.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 19 yds to the Geo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16FG15 plays · 57 yds · 6:4595% → 98%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
3.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Tyler Simmons for 3 yds to the Kent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:352% → 10%
Q4 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
2.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 11 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
2.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 15 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-13
2.5%
Terry Wilson sacked by Monty Rice for a loss of 13 yards to the Kent 38Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 23
OWN 38
+18
2.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 18 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+13
2.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 13 yds to the Geo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
9.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 31 yds for a TD (Chance Poore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18FG13 plays · 54 yds · 5:2094% → 98%
Q4 5:55
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
4.3%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Jeremiah Holloman, broken up by Mike EdwardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19FUMBLE10 plays · 38 yds · 1:503% → 3%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
2.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to David Bouvier for 5 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+12
2.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 12 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+9
2.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 9 yds to the Geo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 1
OPP 22
-4
2.5%
Asim Rose run for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 26 Asim Rose fumbled, forced by Jonathan Ledbetter, recovered by Geo Tyler ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER3 plays · 4 yds · 0:5799% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:45
Benny Snell Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD (Chance Poore KICK)
+9.4
TD · Q3 10:20
Elijah Holyfield run for 4 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q4 9:01
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 31 yds for a TD (Chance Poore KICK)
+7.2