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TA&M

Texas A&M 13 at Mississippi State 28

MSST
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:10 · Tucker Day punt for 27 yds, downed at the TexAM 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Home team on offense+3.9Garbage-time factor+1.3Pregame prior+3.1Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:19: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 25 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +2.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:14: Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 34 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +13.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:17: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 38 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +10.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:54: Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the TexAM 2 — MSST win probability +8.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:53: Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +17.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:57TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:57TA&M 4th & 8 at MSST 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:09MSST 4th & 1 at TA&M 42, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    59.7%−1.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:40TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:10MSST 4th & 19 at MSST 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−1.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:42TA&M 4th & 16 at MSST 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−5.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:48MSST 4th & 3 at TA&M 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    62.2%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:16TA&M 4th & 14 at MSST 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    33.5%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:29MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 20, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:41TA&M 4th & 16 at MSST 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−3.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−9.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:28TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 38, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:33MSST 4th & 17 at MSST 24, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−3.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:36TA&M 4th & 11 at MSST 11, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−7.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:32TA&M 4th & 2 at MSST 25, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:19MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:14TA&M Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:17MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:53MSST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:17MSST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:0345% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
54.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 20Similar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
54.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 4 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
54.7%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
54.7%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:57
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+54
54.8%
Braden Mann punt for 54 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 6:3355% → 59%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
54.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for no gain to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
54.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 4 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+22
54.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 22 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
55.2%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-2
55.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 3
OPP 46
-5
55.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+10
55.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 10 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
55.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexAM 36Similar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 5
OPP 36
-5
55.8%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Justin Madubuike and Antonio Howard for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 41Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
55.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+14
55.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 14 yds to the TexAM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
56.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-2
56.2%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 25Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+25
58.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 25 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3MISSED FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 5:1542% → 39%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 8 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
58.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
58.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Hezekiah Jones for 6 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-2
58.1%
Trayveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 42Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+13
58.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Hezekiah Jones for 13 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
58.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 3 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+8
58.7%
Kellen Mond run for 8 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
58.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 2 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
58.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Trayveon WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
59.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+49
60.6%
Seth Small 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:3961% → 62%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
61.3%
Aeris Williams run for 17 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
62.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
62.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 9 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
62.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the TexAM 42Similar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
62.2%
Tucker Day punt for 41 yds, downed at the TexAM 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:2138% → 37%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
62.1%
Kellen Mond run for 2 yds to the TexAM 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+5
62.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexAM 8Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+12
62.3%
Trayveon Williams run for 12 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
62.1%
Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 22Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+21
62.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 21 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
61.7%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Kendrick RogersSimilar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
61.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
62.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Camron BuckleySimilar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
63.4%
Braden Mann punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:2063% → 63%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
63.4%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-4
63.3%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+15
63.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Justin Madubuike) to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
64.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
64.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Devonta JasonSimilar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-9
64.0%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Landis Durham and Connor Blumrick for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 19
OWN 29
0
62.8%
Tucker Day punt for 27 yds, downed at the TexAM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 5:2337% → 38%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
62.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (6 Yards) to the TexAM 49Similar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 5
OWN 49
+4
62.4%
Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+28
62.4%
Jashaun Corbin run for 28 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
61.5%
Kellen Mond run for 3 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+2
62.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 2 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+5
63.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 5 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
62.7%
Kellen Mond run for 5 yds to the MisSt 4Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
63.0%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 3Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 3
OPP 16
-13
63.6%
Kellen Mond sacked by Jaquarius Landrews for a loss of 13 yards to the MisSt 16 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Intentional Grounding (0 Yards) to the MisSt 16Similar
Q2 4:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+34
62.0%
Seth Small 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:3662% → 63%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
61.6%
Nick Gibson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
62.8%
Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
62.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 21 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
64.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
64.7%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
64.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
63.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 0:3038% → 56%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
61.7%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jace SternbergerSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
62.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
59.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jace SternbergerSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+15
60.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Maurice Smitherman) to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
57.3%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Kendrick RogersSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
43.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 34 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.9%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2850% → 64%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
50.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
51.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
51.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 12 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
53.1%
Aeris Williams run for 12 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
53.1%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 36Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-2
52.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 38Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+38
63.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 38 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 5:3636% → 34%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
63.8%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+7
63.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 7 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
63.1%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the TexAM 36Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
63.9%
Kellen Mond run for 6 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
61.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Leo Lewis) to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
61.0%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+18
62.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Hezekiah Jones for 18 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
59.3%
Trayveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+5
60.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 5 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-8
61.1%
Kellen Mond sacked by Jaquarius Landrews for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
66.4%
Braden Mann punt for 28 yds, downed at the MisSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3967% → 66%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
67.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
66.4%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 11Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+9
66.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 9 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+33
65.5%
Tucker Day punt for 41 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for 33 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14FG
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:4341% → 38%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
58.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 11 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
58.8%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-1
58.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 11
OPP 18
-5
61.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Carson Green) to the MisSt 23Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 16
OPP 23
0
63.8%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:41
4TH & 16
OPP 23
+41
62.1%
Seth Small 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3762% → 86%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
61.8%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jayden Peevy for a loss of 12 yards to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+1
61.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 14Similar
Q3 0:04
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+84
59.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 84 yds to the TexAM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
67.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the TexAM 2Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:0918% → 16%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
82.2%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
82.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 3 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+7
83.6%
Kellen Mond run for 7 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
82.2%
Trayveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 31Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+7
83.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Hezekiah Jones for 7 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
82.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jace SternbergerSimilar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
84.4%
Braden Mann punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:4386% → 87%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
86.3%
Nick Gibson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
86.9%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
87.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 3 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-10
87.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Darryl Williams) to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 17
OWN 24
0
88.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse JacksonSimilar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 17
OWN 24
0
87.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 17
OWN 24
0
87.2%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 38 yds, downed at the TexAM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18INT
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:5716% → 11%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
84.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Carson Green) to the TexAM 33Similar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+11
86.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 11 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
84.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the TexAM 45Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+7
85.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Hezekiah Jones for 7 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
84.8%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+38
85.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 38 yds to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
83.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
-8
85.0%
Kellen Mond sacked by Cory Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 23Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 23
+12
85.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 12 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
87.1%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Camron BuckleySimilar
Q4 2:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
0
88.6%
Kellen Mond pass intercepted, touchback. Erroll Thompson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:1295% → 98%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
94.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+76
98.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 76 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 1:323% → 3%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
97.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 8 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+8
97.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 8 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.6%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
97.6%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+4
97.7%
Trayveon Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 6
OPP 48
+15
97.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Montez Sweat) to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.1%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
97.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+8
97.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 8 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 2
OPP 25
0
97.3%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:53
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
+17.7
TD · Q2 0:14
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 34 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
-13.6
TD · Q3 11:17
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 38 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
+10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com