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VAN

Vanderbilt 45 at Arkansas 31

ARK
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:05 · Parker Thome punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Pregame prior+1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:14: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 40 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +10.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 1:15: Ryley Guay 36 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +12.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:31: Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 11 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +17.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:25: Ty Storey pass complete to Tyson Morris for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +18.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:40: Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +13.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 5VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:02ARK 4th & 3 at VAN 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    55.0%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:05VAN 4th & 14 at VAN 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:46ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:03VAN 4th & 6 at ARK 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    52.2%−0.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:14ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:52VAN 4th & 19 at VAN 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−3.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00VAN 4th & 17 at VAN 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−3.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:39ARK 4th & 7 at VAN 37, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.5%−1.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:15VAN 4th & 18 at ARK 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−5.6
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−14.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:15ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−1.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 4VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:55ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:02VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:46VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:45ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:14VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:31VAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:25ARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:40VAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−1.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:20VAN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:14ARK Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0552% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
52.4%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 16 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
52.4%
Ty Storey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+27
52.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 27 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
52.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 8 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+8
52.4%
Ty Storey pass complete to Michael Woods for 8 yds to the Vandy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
52.4%
Ty Storey pass complete to Michael Woods for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 19 ARKANSAS Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+12
52.4%
Ty Storey run for 12 yds to the Vandy 7Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
52.4%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Vandy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
54.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 3:5346% → 47%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
53.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 9 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 1
OWN 20
0
53.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+4
53.9%
Ja'Veon Marlow run for 4 yds to the Vandy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
53.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+5
53.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, OF (5 Yards) to the Vandy 31Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+5
53.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 5 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
53.7%
Kalija Lipscomb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 37Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+63
52.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 63 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:0053% → 54%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
53.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
53.5%
Ty Storey sacked by Louis Vecchio for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+25
52.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 25 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
54.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-5
54.0%
Ty Storey rush for 5 yards to the VANDY39 (Jordan Griffin), PENALTY AR illegal formation 5 yards to the VANDY49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 13
OPP 49
-6
53.6%
Ty Storey sacked by Dayo Odeyingbo and Cameron Tidd for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 19
OWN 45
+11
53.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 11 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 8
OPP 44
+5
53.1%
VANDERBILT Penalty, OF (5 Yards) to the Vandy 39Similar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
53.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
53.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete, broken up by Ryan PulleySimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
53.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-8
53.6%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Briston Guidry and Armon Watts for a loss of 8 yards to the Vandy 16Similar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
54.1%
Parker Thome punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
54.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
54.4%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+8
53.7%
Ty Storey pass intercepted Joejuan Williams return for 8 yds to the Ark 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:3949% → 56%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
51.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+16
51.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 16 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
50.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 5 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+6
50.5%
Mo Hasan run for 6 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
50.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 13 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 1 yd for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
46.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 11
OWN 15
0
46.4%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'Grady, broken up by Louis VecchioSimilar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 11
OWN 15
-5
45.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 16
OWN 10
+6
45.8%
Chase Hayden run for 6 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 10
OWN 16
+13
45.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 41 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 13 yds to the Ark 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
44.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+6
44.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 6 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
44.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
45.0%
Parker Thome punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Ark 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 3:4545% → 57%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+16
45.0%
Ty Storey run for 16 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
45.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 6 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+15
46.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the Ark 30 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Drew Birchmeier) to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
47.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+6
46.4%
Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 5
50
+14
47.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 14 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
48.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 38Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+38
57.1%
Chase Hayden run for 38 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:3149% → 61%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
50.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+20
49.7%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 20 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
39.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 40 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
42.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
42.0%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to La'Michael Pettway, broken up by Louis VecchioSimilar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
41.5%
Matthew Phillips punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Trey Ellis at the Vandy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
41.2%
Jamauri Wakefield run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 20Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+3
41.5%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 3 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+10
42.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 9 yards to the VANDY32 (K. Richardson), PENALTY AR pass interference (K. Richardson) 10 yards to the VANDY33, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
39.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
40.4%
Kyle Shurmur run for 2 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-5
40.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 13
OWN 30
-6
42.3%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Armon Watts and McTelvin Agim for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 24 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 19
OWN 24
0
43.0%
Parker Thome punt for 60 yds , Deon Stewart returns for no gain to the Ark 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13MISSED FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 0:5740% → 43%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
39.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Chase Hayden for no gain to the Ark 16Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+15
39.6%
Chase Hayden run for 15 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
40.5%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+17
40.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for 17 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
43.0%
Chase Hayden run for 9 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-10
43.6%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Deon Stewart (Dimitri Moore), PENALTY AR holding (Brian Wallace) 10 yards to the AR47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+7
41.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Chase Hayden for 7 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+4
43.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Chase Hayden for 4 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+30
42.9%
Connor Limpert 60 yd FG MISSED , Joejuan Williams return for 30 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
38.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 11 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
38.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 1 yd to the Vandy 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+2
38.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-10
38.7%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Randy Ramsey for a loss of 10 yards to the Vandy 24Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 24
0
40.8%
Parker Thome punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:4039% → 48%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
39.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
40.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+6
38.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 6 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
41.1%
Ty Storey run for 4 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+16
41.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 16 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
42.8%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'Grady, broken up by Dimitri MooreSimilar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
42.7%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+3
41.4%
Ty Storey pass complete to Chase Hayden for 3 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+55
47.7%
Connor Limpert 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16FG
18 plays · 57 yds · 7:2455% → 69%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
45.0%
VANDERBILT Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 20Similar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
45.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Vandy 21Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
45.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
46.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 8 yards to the VANDY34 (Ryan Pulley), PENALTY AR holding (Ryan Pulley) 11 yards to the VANDY37, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
43.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 9 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-10
42.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn rush for 5 yards to the AR49 (Santos Ramirez), PENALTY VANDY holding (Bruno Reagan) 10 yards to the VANDY36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+3
44.5%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+8
43.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 8 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
42.2%
Ja'Veon Marlow run for 18 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
40.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Chris Pierce for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
40.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+5
41.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
40.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 12 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
40.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Ark 8Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
40.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 10 yards to the Ark 18Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
0
43.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q3 1:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
+36
31.0%
Ryley Guay 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.1%
Ty Storey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Tyson Morris for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
33.7%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to La'Michael Pettway, broken up by Randall HaynieSimilar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+2
32.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 47 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 2 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:4171% → 92%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+39
29.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 39 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
26.0%
Mo Hasan run for 5 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+6
25.2%
Khari Blasingame run for 6 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
25.2%
Ja'Veon Marlow rush for 7 yards to the AR19 (McTelvin Agim), PENALTY VANDY holding (Jared Pinkney) 10 yards to the AR36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+1
26.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 35
+23
25.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for 23 yds to the Ark 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
25.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Ark 11Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
8.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 11 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0614% → 34%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
13.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for 21 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
15.4%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Michael Woods, broken up by Allan GeorgeSimilar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+12
15.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 12 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
16.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+28
16.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Michael Woods for 28 yds to the Vandy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
34.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Tyson Morris for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4579% → 96%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
21.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 12 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
19.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for 19 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
18.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
17.6%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+17
18.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 17 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
17.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 15 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
17.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q4 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
5.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
5.5%
Ty Storey pass intercepted Louis Vecchio return for no gain to the Ark 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22TD
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:3597% → 100%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
3.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
3.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+10
3.2%
Khari Blasingame run for 10 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
3.0%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+9
2.4%
Khari Blasingame run for 9 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
2.4%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the Ark 5Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.4%
Khari Blasingame run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:060% → 2%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jordan Jones for 8 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
0.3%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Michael WoodsSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
0.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 10 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
0.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Chase Hayden for 3 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+40
0.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 40 yds to the Vandy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
0.4%
Ty Storey pass complete to Tyson Morris for 2 yds to the Vandy 12Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
1.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 12 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
1.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:25
Ty Storey pass complete to Tyson Morris for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)
+18.3
TD · Q4 11:31
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 11 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)
-17.2
TD · Q4 4:40
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)
-13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com