Try the model
ALA

Alabama 58 at Tennessee 21

TENN
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Neyland Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:01 · Joe Doyle punt for 43 yds, downed at the Alab 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Pregame prior−1.4Home team on offense−57.1Score differential−46.8Garbage-time factor−23.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:21: Keller Chryst pass complete to Ty Chandler for 10 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +2.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:18: Keller Chryst pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 20 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +2.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:15: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 9 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +1.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:53: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 41 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:17: Jalen Hurts pass intercepted for a TD Kyle Phillips return for 27 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +0.8 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:19TENN 4th & 12 at TENN 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:15TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:54TENN 4th & 10 at ALA 40, down 28
    Close callPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:20ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 11, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:29TENN 4th & 11 at TENN 47, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:25TENN 4th & 7 at ALA 36, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:07TENN 4th & 7 at ALA 24, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:04TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 41, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:15ALA 4th & 3 at TENN 16, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:32ALA 4th & 5 at TENN 7, up 37
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:01TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 27, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 10:58ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:35ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:08ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:31ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:21TENN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:23ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:18TENN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:15ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 12:53ALA Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 5:17TENN Touchdown, down 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 1:03ALA Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:4797% → 96%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
3.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 12 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
3.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Alex Leatherwood) to the Alab 49Similar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+16
3.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 16 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
3.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
3.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+10
3.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 10 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
3.7%
Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd to the Tenn 24Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+12
3.8%
Josh Jacobs run for 12 yds to the Tenn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
4.0%
Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd to the Tenn 11Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
3.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 11 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · -22 yds · 0:114% → 4%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
4.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Ty ChandlerSimilar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-22
4.0%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Xavier McKinney for a loss of 22 yards to the Tenn 3 Jarrett Guarantano fumbled, forced by Xavier McKinney, recovered by Alab Christian Miller , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0496% → 96%
Q1 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
4.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.8%
Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:064% → 4%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
3.9%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 21Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-2
3.9%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Christian Miller for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 19Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+4
4.0%
Tim Jordan run for 4 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
4.1%
Joe Doyle punt for 54 yds, downed at the Alab 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
1 play · 77 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
3.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 77 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:444% → 4%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
3.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
3.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 3 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-1
3.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 8
OWN 33
-5
3.5%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 28Similar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 13
OWN 28
-7
3.5%
Joe Doyle punt for 52 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 21 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (6 Yards) to the Alab 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
9 plays · 93 yds · 2:3697% → 97%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
3.5%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+17
3.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 2 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+31
3.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 31 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
3.5%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+15
3.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 15 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
3.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
3.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Hale HentgesSimilar
Q1 3:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+15
3.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Damien Harris for 11 yds to the Tenn 7 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the Tenn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.4%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 3:263% → 3%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
3.3%
Ty Chandler run for 8 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+1
3.3%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Tenn 36Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-1
3.4%
Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 35Similar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+5
3.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
3.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+20
2.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 20 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
2.7%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
2.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Tim JordanSimilar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+2
2.6%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
2.5%
Joe Doyle punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2797% → 96%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
3.5%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 10Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+1
3.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 1 yd to the Alab 11Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
3.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 8
OWN 11
0
3.8%
Mike Bernier punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:333% → 2%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
2.6%
Ty Chandler run for 9 yds to the TENNESSEE 43 TENNESSEE Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Tenn 42Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+11
2.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 11 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-6
2.4%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Isaiah Buggs for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 47Similar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
2.3%
Joe Doyle punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0197% → 96%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
3.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Irv Smith Jr.) to the Alab 30Similar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+4
3.4%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 16
OWN 34
0
3.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 16
OWN 34
0
3.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Damien HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:442% → 5%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
2.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
2.2%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+30
2.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 30 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
2.4%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the Alab 36Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+26
2.2%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Ty Chandler for 26 yds to the Alab 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
4.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Ty Chandler for 10 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:5297% → 97%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
3.3%
Josh Jacobs run for 5 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+10
3.2%
Josh Jacobs run for 10 yds to the Tenn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
3.2%
Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd to the Tenn 27Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+12
3.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 12 yds to the Tenn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
3.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Josh JacobsSimilar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+13
3.1%
Josh Jacobs run for 13 yds to the Tenn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
3.1%
Josh Jacobs run for no gain to the Tenn 2Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 1:582% → 5%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
2.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 14Similar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+3
2.8%
Tim Jordan run for 3 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 12
OWN 17
0
2.9%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+23
2.4%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 23 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+40
1.9%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 40 yds Jauan Jennings fumbled, recovered by Tenn Jauan Jennings for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
2.1%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
4.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 20 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 1:5797% → 98%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
3.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
3.5%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+6
3.2%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 6 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
3.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 22 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
2.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 1 yd to the Alab 49Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+14
2.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 14 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
2.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 3 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+25
2.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 25 yds to the Tenn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
1.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 9 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
1.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17SF
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-3
2.0%
Keller Chryst run for a loss of 3 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
2.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-10 Yards) to the Tenn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:4798% → 99%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
1.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 6
50
+1
1.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 1 yd to the Tenn 49Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+8
1.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 8 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
1.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 41 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19MISSED FG
16 plays · 51 yds · 6:381% → 1%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.8%
Tim Jordan run for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
0.8%
Tim Jordan run for 4 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
0.8%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Eli Wolf for 2 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
0.8%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 34Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
0.7%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+27
0.6%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 27 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
0.7%
Madre London run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 43 Madre London fumbled, recovered by TennSimilar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 14
OPP 43
0
0.6%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+7
0.6%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Tim Jordan for 7 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+9
0.6%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 9 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
0.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Alab 32Similar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+7
0.6%
Ty Chandler run for 7 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+1
0.6%
Tim Jordan run for 1 yd to the Alab 24Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
0.6%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Eli WolfSimilar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
0.5%
Brent Cimaglia 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20INT TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
0.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+27
1.4%
Jalen Hurts pass intercepted for a TD Kyle Phillips return for 27 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:5799% → 100%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
1.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 12 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
1.2%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+10
1.2%
Najee Harris run for 10 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
1.1%
Najee Harris run for 14 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
1.1%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+7
0.6%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
0.6%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 21Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+21
0.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 21 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
0.3%
Tim Jordan run for 11 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
0.3%
Tim Jordan run for 6 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-1
0.2%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 41Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
0.2%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
0.2%
Joe Doyle punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 69 yds · 9:28100% → 100%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
0.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 25Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+13
0.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 13 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
0.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+9
0.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Derek Kief for 9 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
0.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+20
0.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 20 yds to the Tenn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
0.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 24Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
0.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Tenn 24Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+8
0.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Tenn 16Similar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+4
0.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tenn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
0.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 14Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 12
OPP 14
-2
0.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 16Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 14
OPP 16
+9
0.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Tenn 7Similar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 5
OPP 7
0
0.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Tenn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 3:240% → 0%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
0.1%
Tim Jordan run for 7 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+6
0.1%
Tim Jordan run for 6 yds to the Tenn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
0.1%
Tim Jordan run for 3 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
0.1%
Tim Jordan run for 1 yd to the Tenn 24Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+3
0.1%
Tim Jordan run for 3 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
0.1%
Joe Doyle punt for 43 yds, downed at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
0.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the Alab 30Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:18
Keller Chryst pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 20 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q2 7:21
Keller Chryst pass complete to Ty Chandler for 10 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q2 0:15
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 9 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com