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AUB

Auburn 31 at Ole Miss 16

MISS
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:50 · Mac Brown punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Home team on offense−1.2Score differential−0.2Pregame prior−12.5Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:07: Malik Miller run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +10.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:30: Luke Logan 35 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +4.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:53: JaTarvious Whitlow run for 54 yds JaTarvious Whitlow fumbled, forced by Jalen Julius, recovered by Aub Anthony Schwartz for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +10.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:00: Malik Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +8.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:24: Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 12 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +3.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 9AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 5:49MISS 4th & 15 at AUB 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:04AUB 4th & 13 at AUB 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:50MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:16AUB 4th & 19 at AUB 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−1.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.4%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:38AUB 4th & 2 at MISS 29, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.7%−0.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:16MISS 4th & 3 at AUB 20, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%−0.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−5.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:06AUB 4th & 1 at MISS 46, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%−3.0
    23% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:18AUB 4th & 8 at MISS 10, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−5.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:22MISS 4th & 15 at AUB 35, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:58MISS 4th & 3 at AUB 36, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    16.5%−1.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:41MISS 4th & 16 at MISS 19, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−2.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:51AUB 4th & 14 at MISS 27, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:18MISS 4th & 13 at AUB 49, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:27AUB 4th & 23 at AUB 35, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:24AUB 4th & 1 at MISS 27, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:37MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 46, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 0 of 1AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:36AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:07AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:00AUB Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:24MISS Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1MISSED FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 2:2535% → 36%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
34.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 9 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
34.9%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
35.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 6 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
35.2%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 6 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
35.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+14
35.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 14 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
35.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 10 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
35.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
35.8%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
36.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
36.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+40
36.1%
Luke Logan 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Darrell WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 3:3964% → 66%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
35.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+8
35.8%
Jarrett Stidham run for 8 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
35.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 5 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+18
35.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 18 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
35.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 10 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
35.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 2 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-10
35.9%
AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nick Brahms) to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 18
OPP 35
+3
36.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to JaTarvious Whitlow for 3 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+27
36.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 27 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
36.2%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 2 yds to the Miss 3Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
36.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Sal CannellaSimilar
Q1 8:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
34.2%
JaTarvious Whitlow 3 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Anders Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 2:3635% → 36%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.9%
Jordan Ta'amu run for no gain to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
34.8%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 14 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
35.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 11 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
35.8%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 9 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+7
35.9%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 7 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
36.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+15
36.2%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Javaris Davis) to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
36.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
36.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 19Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 15
OPP 19
0
36.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Dawson KnoxSimilar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 15
OPP 19
0
35.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 15
OPP 19
+36
36.4%
Luke Logan 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2164% → 62%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
36.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 2 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
36.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 36Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
37.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Derrick BrownSimilar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 13
OWN 36
+2
37.7%
Arryn Siposs punt for 47 yds , Braylon Sanders returns for 2 yds to the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5737% → 37%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
37.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+4
37.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
36.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
36.5%
Mac Brown punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:2863% → 61%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
37.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-4
37.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 14
OWN 26
-5
38.0%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Benito Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 21Similar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 19
OWN 21
0
38.6%
Arryn Siposs punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1338% → 39%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
38.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
38.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 8 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
38.9%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
38.5%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Miss 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:0264% → 63%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
35.9%
Shaun Shivers run for 5 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+2
35.8%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+4
36.2%
Shaun Shivers run for 4 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
36.0%
Jarrett Stidham run for no gain to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
35.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 3 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+5
36.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to JaTarvious Whitlow for 5 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+47
36.9%
Anders Carlson 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:1238% → 42%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+32
38.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 32 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
40.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
41.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+8
40.4%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 8 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
41.6%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
41.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+7
40.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 7 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
42.1%
Luke Logan 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10FG
17 plays · 86 yds · 4:4060% → 63%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+11
40.0%
Shaun Shivers run for 11 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
39.9%
Shaun Shivers run for 4 yds to the Aub 19 Shaun Shivers fumbled, recovered by Aub Shaun ShiversSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+10
39.1%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 10 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
38.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 16 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
37.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 7 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
36.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
37.0%
Jarrett Stidham run for 2 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+4
38.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
37.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
37.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+27
37.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to JaTarvious Whitlow for 27 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
36.2%
Jarrett Stidham run for 2 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
36.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
37.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+28
37.4%
Anders Carlson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:3838% → 35%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+51
38.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 51 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
42.7%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 5 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
42.8%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-5
41.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 30Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-5
41.3%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Nick Coe for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 15
OPP 35
0
35.3%
Mac Brown punt for 31 yds, downed at the Aub 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:4663% → 63%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
37.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 6 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+3
37.1%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:4863% → 77%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
36.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 7 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+4
35.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
35.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 9 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+5
34.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 5 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
34.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+21
34.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Seth Williams for 21 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
34.0%
Anthony Schwartz run for 16 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.3%
Malik Miller run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:1425% → 30%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.4%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
25.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 15 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+39
26.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 39 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
28.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-10
27.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 20
OPP 30
+7
26.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 7 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+15
25.1%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Javaris Davis) to the Aub 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
27.3%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Aub 8Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
27.2%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Aub 8Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
25.6%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Jamien Sherwood for a loss of 10 yards to the Aub 18Similar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 0
OPP 18
+35
29.8%
Luke Logan 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3174% → 87%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
26.2%
Shaun Shivers run for 13 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
24.5%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
24.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 5 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
13.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 54 yds JaTarvious Whitlow fumbled, forced by Jalen Julius, recovered by Aub Anthony Schwartz for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:4716% → 16%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
16.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 19 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
18.0%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Nick Coe for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+9
16.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for 9 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+6
18.0%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 6 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
17.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for 4 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
17.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+3
16.7%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 3 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 3
OPP 36
-2
16.4%
Jordan Ta'amu run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:4788% → 97%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
11.6%
Shaun Shivers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 36Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+62
11.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Seth Williams for 62 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.1%
Malik Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:144% → 4%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
4.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Braylon Sanders for a loss of 2 yards Braylon Sanders fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-9
4.2%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Marlon Davidson for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 14Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+5
4.1%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
4.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q3 1:41
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+4
4.0%
Mac Brown punt for 35 yds , Ryan Davis returns for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19MISSED FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:2997% → 97%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
50
+27
2.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 27 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
2.5%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-5
2.5%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 27
0
2.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 14
OPP 27
0
2.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+45
2.8%
Anders Carlson 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:224% → 3%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
3.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Scottie Phillips for 9 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+18
3.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 18 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
3.1%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+6
3.0%
Isaiah Woullard run for 6 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 5
OPP 41
-8
3.0%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Nick Coe for a loss of 8 yards to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
2.6%
Mac Brown punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ryan Davis at the Aub 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:3098% → 99%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
2.2%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the Aub 10Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+3
1.9%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+35
1.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 35 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
1.5%
Malik Miller run for 9 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-10
1.4%
AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-15
1.4%
AUBURN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Aub 32Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 26
OWN 32
+4
1.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Malik Miller for 4 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 22
OWN 36
-1
1.4%
Malik Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 23
OWN 35
0
1.3%
Arryn Siposs punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Braylon Sanders at the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
17 plays · 82 yds · 4:482% → 4%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
1.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 5 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
1.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 1
OWN 27
-5
1.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+8
1.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 8 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
1.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 5 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
1.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
1.1%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 6 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
1.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 7 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+14
1.1%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 14 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
1.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for 4 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+9
1.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Elijah Moore for 9 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
1.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+12
1.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 12 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
1.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Miles Battle for 6 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 4
OPP 7
0
1.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 4
OPP 7
-5
1.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 12Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
4.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 12 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:5398% → 98%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
2.5%
Kam Martin run for 10 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
2.0%
Kam Martin run for 5 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+2
1.7%
Jarrett Stidham run for 2 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+2
1.7%
Malik Miller run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 1
OPP 27
-2
1.7%
Malik Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 44 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
0.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Scottie Phillips for 11 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
0.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 6 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
1.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
0.9%
Jordan Ta'amu run for no gain to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+6
0.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 6 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
0.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 10 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
0.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 11 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
1.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
1.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:53
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 54 yds JaTarvious Whitlow fumbled, forced by Jalen Julius, recovered by Aub Anthony Schwartz for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q3 12:07
Malik Miller run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q3 3:00
Malik Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com