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MSST

Mississippi State 3 at LSU 19

LSU
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:05 · Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 48 yds, downed at the MisSt 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Home team on offense+1.7Score differential−0.1Pregame prior+4.8Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 5:36: Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 05:36 — LSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Cole Tracy 25 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 10:44: Cole Tracy 38 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:13: Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 08:13 — LSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 2:54: Cole Tracy 29 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 9
  1. Q1 8:43MSST 4th & 2 at LSU 2, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:31LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 34, up 4
    Close callPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:31MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 30, down 4
    Close callPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:06LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:15MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:05LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:31MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:35LSU 4th & 16 at LSU 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:29MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 47, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:34LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:29MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 49, down 4
    Close callPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00LSU 4th & 7 at MSST 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−5.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:44LSU 4th & 3 at MSST 20, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.4%−0.6
    75% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−6.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:08MSST 4th & 3 at LSU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−2.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:54LSU 4th & 3 at MSST 11, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%−0.8
    87% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−8.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:55MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 45, down 13
    Close callPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:42LSU 4th & 7 at MSST 22, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−5.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:41MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 29, down 16
    Close callPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:05LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 48, up 16
    Close callPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:29LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 32, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:37LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1INT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1843% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
56.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Darryl Williams) to the MisSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
56.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Darryl Williams) to the MisSt 15Similar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+2
56.9%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+8
57.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 8 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+31
57.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Michael Divinity Jr. return for 31 yds to the MisSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:5857% → 58%
Q1 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
57.2%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the MisSt 2Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
57.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.2%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3FG
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:4742% → 42%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
57.9%
Kylin Hill run for 18 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+40
58.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 40 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
57.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
58.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 5Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
58.1%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Green, Farrod, PENALTY LSU offside (Lawrence, Rashard) 3 yards to the LSU2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
58.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the LSU 2Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
58.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the LSU 2Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
57.7%
Jace Christmann 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0458% → 58%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.8%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
57.9%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
58.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4442% → 41%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
58.5%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+5
58.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+2
58.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 2 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
59.3%
Tucker Day punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1859% → 58%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
58.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
58.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
58.3%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
58.1%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:0441% → 41%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
58.9%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+4
59.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 4 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
59.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Grant Delpit return for no gain to the MisSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:3460% → 61%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
60.4%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+9
60.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 9 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+7
60.0%
Nick Brossette run for 7 yds to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
60.5%
Joe Burrow pass intercepted Cameron Dantzler return for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3541% → 39%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
59.3%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
59.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+9
60.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
59.4%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
59.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Kylin HillSimilar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+2
60.2%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
60.7%
Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5560% → 59%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
60.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
60.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+2
59.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 2 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
59.2%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 48 yds, downed at the MisSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0940% → 39%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
60.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+1
60.1%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 11Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 6
OWN 11
0
60.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 6
OWN 11
0
61.1%
Tucker Day punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:4562% → 59%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
61.8%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-5
61.7%
Joe Burrow sacked by Johnathan Abram for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 13
OWN 44
-8
60.0%
Joe Burrow sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 21
OWN 36
+5
58.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Sh'mar Kilby-Lane) to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
59.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:5140% → 39%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
59.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+8
58.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
58.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
58.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
58.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
61.3%
Tucker Day punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3663% → 61%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
62.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 19Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
62.3%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Tory CarterSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-1
61.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 18Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+4
60.6%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 42 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for 4 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5140% → 38%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
60.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
60.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
60.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
62.1%
Tucker Day punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16END OF HALF
18 plays · 64 yds · 3:2064% → 69%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
63.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 11 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
65.0%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
64.3%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+19
63.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 19 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
66.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Nick Brossette for 1 yd to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+3
66.3%
Joe Burrow run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+6
65.4%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
66.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 11 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
67.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
67.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 9 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
65.9%
Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
67.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
67.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
65.9%
Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
69.1%
Cole Tracy 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:0170% → 76%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
71.1%
Nick Brossette run for 12 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
72.0%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 6
50
0
72.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 6
50
+7
71.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
72.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+15
72.5%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Dillon, Derrick, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Abram, Johnathan) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
72.8%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+2
73.7%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+2
72.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 2 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+38
76.2%
Cole Tracy 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 30 yds · 4:2224% → 21%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
75.6%
Kylin Hill run for 17 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
75.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
74.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 5 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
74.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+5
78.4%
Hill, Kylin rush for 4 yards to the LSU45, PENALTY LSU offside (Lawrence, Rashard) 5 yards to the LSU44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
77.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
77.6%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+7
78.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 3
OPP 37
-8
79.3%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Grant Delpit for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:0882% → 90%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
82.2%
Derrick Dillon run for no gain to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Montez Sweat) to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
82.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
82.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 11 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
83.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+2
84.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
84.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
84.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+5
83.7%
Joe Burrow run for 5 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+29
89.7%
Cole Tracy 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4012% → 11%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
87.7%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
87.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
87.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
88.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
88.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
89.2%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 28 yds, downed at the LSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 5:0391% → 96%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
90.6%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+5
92.5%
Nick Brossette run for 5 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
92.7%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+6
93.3%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+8
93.4%
Joe Burrow run for 8 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
94.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 20 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
94.4%
Joe Burrow run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
94.5%
Joe Burrow run for 1 yd to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+2
94.4%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
95.5%
Cole Tracy 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:545% → 5%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
94.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
94.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
95.0%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:2596% → 97%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
95.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 11 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
96.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Foster Moreau for 4 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-2
96.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+6
96.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Nick Brossette for 6 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
96.6%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24INT
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:424% → 3%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
96.1%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+6
96.4%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
96.3%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass pass intended for Jackson, Jesse intercepted by Fulton, Kristian at the MISSSTATE27, Fulton, Kristian return 14 yards to the MISSSTATE13, PENALTY LSU personal foul (White, Devin) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE. Devin White ejected for targeting.Similar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
96.0%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (John Battle & Kristian Fulton for 30 yards ) to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
95.9%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
96.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted John Battle return for no gain to the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:2197% → 98%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
97.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+10
97.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 10 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
98.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+1
98.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
98.1%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 35 yds, downed at the MisSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26INT
9 plays · 51 yds · 1:391% → 1%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
99.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 9 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+4
99.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+15
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 15 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
99.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Nick Gibson for 12 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
98.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Nick GibsonSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
98.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Grant Delpit return for no gain to the LSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 2:54
Cole Tracy 29 yd FG GOOD
+6
FG · Q2 0:00
Cole Tracy 25 yd FG GOOD
+3.6
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:13
Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 08:13
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com