Try the model
TLSA

Tulsa 0 at Arkansas 23

ARK
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Razorback Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:14 · Thomas Bennett punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 44 , Deon Stewart returns for 29 yds to the Ark 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Home team on offense+1.1Pregame prior+12.1Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:54: TULSA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (14 Yards) to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST down — TLSA win probability +2.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:25: Connor Noland pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 7 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +8.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. SACK · Q3 13:27: Seth Boomer sacked by Dre Greenlaw for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 41 — TLSA win probability +2.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 9:07: Connor Limpert 35 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +6.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:38: Maleek Williams run for 4 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK) TULSA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — ARK win probability +9.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 7TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:03TLSA 4th & 11 at ARK 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:03ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:34TLSA 4th & 6 at ARK 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:14ARK 4th & 5 at TLSA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:14TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:27ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:01TLSA 4th & 4 at ARK 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.3%−1.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:07ARK 4th & 5 at TLSA 41, up 3
    Close callPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−1.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:58TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:07ARK 4th & 13 at TLSA 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−6.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:07TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 2, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:38TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 44, down 20
    Close callPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00ARK 4th & 7 at midfield, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:20TLSA 4th & 10 at ARK 45, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:20ARK 4th & 6 at TLSA 6, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:22TLSA 4th & 7 at ARK 11, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 1:25ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:38ARK Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1INT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the Ark 29 Rakeem Boyd fumbled, forced by Trevis Gipson,Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
66.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 16 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
66.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
66.5%
Connor Noland pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 5 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
66.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+18
66.5%
Connor Noland pass intercepted McKinley Whitfield return for 18 yds to the Ark 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:3534% → 34%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
65.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+2
65.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+3
66.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
65.9%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Ark 11Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-1
65.9%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 12Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 11
OPP 12
0
65.7%
Seth Boomer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+28
66.0%
Nathan Walker 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
66.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 9 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
66.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
66.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+4
66.1%
Connor Noland run for 4 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+10
66.0%
Connor Noland pass complete to Jordan Jones for 10 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
66.5%
Connor Noland run for 2 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+5
66.5%
Connor Noland pass complete to Jordan Jones for 5 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
66.5%
Connor Noland pass incomplete, broken up by McKinley WhitfieldSimilar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
66.3%
Reid Bauer punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4MISSED FG
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:2934% → 35%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
65.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+32
65.5%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Corey Taylor II for 32 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
64.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 19 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
64.3%
Seth Boomer run for 4 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
64.3%
Seth Boomer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
64.6%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Shamari BrooksSimilar
Q1 3:34
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
64.8%
Nathan Walker 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:2066% → 67%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
65.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for 17 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
66.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+15
65.9%
Connor Noland pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 15 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
66.8%
Chase Hayden run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+20
66.8%
Connor Noland pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 20 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
67.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+6
67.0%
Connor Noland pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 6 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
67.0%
Connor Noland run for no gain to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
67.1%
Connor Limpert 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
66.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
65.4%
Seth Boomer sacked by McTelvin Agim and Michael Taylor II for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 14
OWN 40
0
66.3%
Seth Boomer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 14
OWN 40
0
66.7%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete, broken up by De'Jon HarrisSimilar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 14
OWN 40
+29
67.3%
Thomas Bennett punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 44 , Deon Stewart returns for 29 yds to the Ark 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
67.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
67.6%
Connor Noland pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+4
66.6%
Connor Noland run for 4 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
66.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 49 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
66.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
65.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
66.1%
Seth Boomer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+17
66.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 17 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
64.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
64.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
65.0%
Seth Boomer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
65.8%
Seth Boomer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3968% → 69%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
67.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 8 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+5
68.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
68.6%
Connor Noland pass incomplete to Deon Stewart, broken up by McKinley WhitfieldSimilar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
68.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+3
68.0%
Connor Noland pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 3 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 6:07
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
68.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
68.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+1
68.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
69.5%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete, broken up by Jarques McClellionSimilar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
70.1%
Thomas Bennett punt for 36 yds , Deon Stewart returns for no gain to the Tulsa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:2970% → 79%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
70.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+9
70.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
70.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
70.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-5
70.9%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 27 Team fumbled, recovered by Ark Connor NolandSimilar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 18
OPP 27
+14
68.6%
TULSA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (14 Yards) to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
70.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
70.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
78.9%
Connor Noland pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 7 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
78.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
77.7%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete, broken up by Ryan PulleySimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
77.8%
Seth Boomer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+8
77.9%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 8 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
76.8%
Seth Boomer pass intercepted Ryan Pulley return for no gain to the Ark 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
78.4%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
76.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
76.3%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 12
-3
77.2%
Seth Boomer sacked by McTelvin Agim and T.J. Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 9
0
77.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Tulsa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
79.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 46 Rakeem Boyd fumbled, forced by Cooper Edmiston, recovered by Tulsa Cooper EdmistonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · -19 yds · 0:0024% → 21%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
76.3%
Seth Boomer sacked by Dre Greenlaw for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 15
OWN 41
-6
77.6%
N/A run for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 21
OWN 35
-8
78.8%
Seth Boomer sacked by Armon Watts for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 27 Seth Boomer fumbled, recovered by Ark Randy Ramsey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17FG
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:5681% → 85%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
80.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+1
80.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+10
79.6%
Connor Noland run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
80.5%
Cole Kelley rush for 6 yards to the TLS8 (Bryson Powers;Cooper Edmiston), PENALTY AR holding (Austin Capps) 10 yards to the TLS24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 20
OPP 24
0
80.4%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+7
80.1%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Chase Hayden for 7 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 13
OPP 17
0
79.3%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jared Cornelius, broken up by McKinley WhitfieldSimilar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 13
OPP 17
+35
85.3%
Connor Limpert 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
85.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+4
85.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 4
OWN 10
-8
85.4%
Seth Boomer sacked by Briston Guidry for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 12
OWN 2
0
85.8%
Thomas Bennett punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 1:2388% → 97%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+30
87.6%
Connor Noland pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 30 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
87.6%
Chase Hayden run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.5%
Maleek Williams run for 4 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK) TULSA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
95.7%
Seth Boomer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+2
95.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+10
95.7%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 10 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
95.5%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
95.5%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
95.5%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
95.5%
Seth Boomer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
95.5%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete, broken up by Bumper PoolSimilar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
95.6%
Thomas Bennett punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:2297% → 98%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
96.9%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+4
96.9%
Chase Hayden run for 4 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+8
97.6%
Chase Hayden run for 8 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
97.6%
Maleek Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+23
97.8%
Connor Noland pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 23 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
98.0%
Maleek Williams run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
50
0
98.0%
Connor Noland pass incomplete to Michael WoodsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
50
0
97.9%
Connor Noland pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
50
0
97.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 32 yds, downed at the Tulsa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
98.3%
Seth Boomer run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
98.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
98.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
98.2%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 2 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+11
98.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 11 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
98.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
98.1%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-5
98.2%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Keylon Stokes) to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
98.2%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Shamari BrooksSimilar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
98.2%
Thomas Bennett punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23FG
19 plays · 74 yds · 8:1999% → 100%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.7%
Chase Hayden run for 5 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
98.7%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-4
98.7%
Cole Kelley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+14
98.6%
Reid Bauer punt 25 yards to the AR48, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TLS roughing the kicker (Diamon Cannon) 14 yards to the AR37, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
98.8%
Maleek Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
98.8%
Maleek Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
98.8%
Cole Kelley run for 3 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
98.9%
Maleek Williams run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 9
50
+20
98.8%
Cole Kelley run for 20 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
98.8%
Chase Hayden run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
98.8%
Chase Hayden run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
98.8%
Cole Kelley run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+4
98.8%
Maleek Williams run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.8%
Maleek Williams run for no gain to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.6%
Cole Kelley run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.5%
Maleek Williams run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 1:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
99.8%
Connor Limpert 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 61 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.6%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Dorian GeraldSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+65
99.6%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 65 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
99.5%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 1 yd to the Ark 13Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+2
99.5%
Seth Boomer run for 2 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
99.8%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 7
OPP 11
-7
99.8%
Seth Boomer sacked by McTelvin Agim for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
99.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:38
Maleek Williams run for 4 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK) TULSA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
+9
TD · Q2 1:25
Connor Noland pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 7 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)
+8
FG · Q3 9:07
Connor Limpert 35 yd FG GOOD
+6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com