Try the model
UGA

Georgia 16 at LSU 36

LSU
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:40 · Jake Camarda punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Pregame prior−20.9Home team on offense+4.3Score differential+1.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 11:22: Cole Tracy 36 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 5:09: Cole Tracy 39 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:07: Elijah Holyfield run for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UGA win probability +11.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:31: Joe Burrow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK) — LSU win probability +11.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:00: Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 27 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +9.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 13UGA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:03LSU 4th & 11 at LSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:49UGA 4th & 10 at UGA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:32LSU 4th & 5 at UGA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:28UGA 4th & 9 at LSU 14, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:34LSU 4th & 1 at UGA 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:40UGA 4th & 9 at UGA 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:22LSU 4th & 7 at UGA 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−6.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:52UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 31, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:45LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 38, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.0%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:30LSU 4th & 1 at UGA 36, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−4.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:09LSU 4th & 11 at UGA 21, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−7.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:47UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 29, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:10LSU 4th & 14 at LSU 38, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:38UGA 4th & 5 at UGA 48, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:03UGA 4th & 12 at LSU 23, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−5.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:47LSU 4th & 2 at UGA 44, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%−4.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%−2.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:00LSU 4th & 1 at UGA 14, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−2.9
    84% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−12.2
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:00LSU 4th & 4 at UGA 6, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.9%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−10.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:39LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:20UGA 4th & 20 at LSU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−2.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:20LSU 4th & 8 at UGA 12, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UGA made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q2 13:34LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:07UGA Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:31LSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:00UGA Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:14LSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4223% → 24%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.9%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
23.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 2 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
23.3%
Joe Burrow sacked by D'Andre Walker for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
23.6%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Mecole Hardman at the Geo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:0176% → 76%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
23.8%
Elijah Holyfield run for no gain to the Geo 28Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+19
23.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 19 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
23.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Isaac NautaSimilar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
24.0%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to D'Andre SwiftSimilar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
24.2%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Mecole HardmanSimilar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
24.4%
Jake Camarda punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:1324% → 26%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.4%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
24.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Jontre Kirklin for 5 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
24.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 6 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
25.0%
Nick Brossette run for 12 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+37
25.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 37 yds to the Geo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
25.9%
Nick Brossette run for 5 yds to the Geo 15Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
26.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen Sullivan, broken up by Deandre BakerSimilar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
26.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Clyde Edwards-HelaireSimilar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
26.2%
Cole Tracy 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4FUMBLE
14 plays · 59 yds · 5:4274% → 70%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
26.3%
GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Isaiah Wilson) to the Geo 15Similar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+12
26.4%
D'Andre Swift run for 12 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+18
26.9%
D'Andre Swift run for 18 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
26.7%
Elijah Holyfield run for 17 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
26.9%
Elijah Holyfield run for 2 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+7
27.0%
D'Andre Swift run for 7 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
27.3%
Jake Fromm run for 2 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
27.4%
Elijah Holyfield run for 9 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+3
27.7%
D'Andre Swift run for 3 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
27.9%
D'Andre Swift run for 1 yd to the LSU 14Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
28.3%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Mecole HardmanSimilar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
28.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Mecole Hardman, broken up by Kary Vincent Jr.Similar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 9
OPP 14
-2
29.6%
Rodrigo Blankenship run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 16 Rodrigo Blankenship fumbled, recovered by LSU Devin WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 4:5130% → 38%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
29.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+12
29.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Foster Moreau for 12 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
30.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
30.5%
Jontre Kirklin run for 2 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+4
30.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 4 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
31.5%
Joe Burrow run for 4 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
32.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 5 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+47
32.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 47 yds to the Geo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
33.3%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 9Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
33.5%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the Geo 3Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
33.6%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the Geo 1Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.9%
Joe Burrow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4962% → 60%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.4%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Jeremiah HollomanSimilar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
38.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Brian Herrien for 1 yd to the Geo 26Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
39.8%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
40.4%
Jake Camarda punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7FG
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:1339% → 49%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+50
39.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 50 yds to the Geo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
40.9%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the Geo 17Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
41.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
41.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Nick BrossetteSimilar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+36
48.5%
Cole Tracy 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1854% → 52%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.7%
D'Andre Swift run for 3 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
46.0%
D'Andre Swift run for 3 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
47.0%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
48.1%
Jake Camarda punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9FG
16 plays · 50 yds · 4:3851% → 63%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
51.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
51.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+8
53.3%
Joe Burrow run for 8 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+1
54.1%
Joe Burrow run for 1 yd to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
56.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
55.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 6 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+9
55.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 9 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
57.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
57.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the Geo 36Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
57.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the Geo 36Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+16
57.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 16 yds to the Geo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
58.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-12
59.4%
Joe Burrow sacked by Robert Beal Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the Geo 32 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 22
OPP 32
+11
58.4%
Joe Burrow run for 11 yds to the Geo 21Similar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+39
62.9%
Cole Tracy 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1841% → 38%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.1%
Elijah Holyfield run for 5 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
59.2%
Brian Herrien run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 29Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
60.7%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to D'Andre SwiftSimilar
Q2 3:47
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
61.7%
Jake Camarda punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2967% → 67%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
67.3%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
67.3%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-6
67.6%
Joe Burrow sacked by Keyon Richardson and Tyler Clark for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
67.2%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 39 yds, downed at the Geo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:2236% → 35%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
64.0%
Jake Fromm run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 21Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+9
65.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 9 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+13
64.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 13 yds to the Geo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
64.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 5 yds to the Geo 48Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
62.8%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
63.5%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Tyler SimmonsSimilar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
64.9%
Jake Camarda punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
72.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 5:4934% → 28%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.6%
Jake Fromm run for 2 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
66.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 8 yds to the Geo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
65.8%
D'Andre Swift run for 14 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
64.9%
D'Andre Swift run for 2 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+13
65.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 13 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-9
66.1%
Jake Fromm sacked by Glen Logan for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 19
OPP 45
+9
69.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 9 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+15
70.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 15 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
67.2%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley Ridley, broken up by Greedy WilliamsSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
68.4%
D'Andre Swift run for 1 yd to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 9
OPP 20
-3
72.4%
Jake Fromm sacked by Michael Divinity Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 23Similar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
71.9%
Rodrigo Blankenship 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 31 yds · 3:1574% → 78%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
74.3%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Saahdiq Charles) to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
73.8%
Joe Burrow run for no gain to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
74.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 10 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
74.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 5 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
75.9%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
76.1%
Nick Brossette run for 8 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
76.5%
GEORGIA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
77.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
77.7%
Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 8
50
+6
79.2%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
78.3%
Josh Growden punt for 40 yds, downed at the Geo 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1525% → 24%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
75.1%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Isaac Nauta, broken up by Grant DelpitSimilar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
75.6%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Mecole HardmanSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 10
OWN 4
0
76.1%
Jake Fromm pass intercepted Kristian Fulton return for no gain to the Geo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17FG
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:1781% → 87%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
81.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the Geo 17Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+2
81.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the Geo 15Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
81.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the Geo 14Similar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
81.3%
Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the Geo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
82.9%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
83.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the Geo 6Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
83.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Nick BrossetteSimilar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
87.0%
Cole Tracy 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4316% → 30%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.6%
Justin Fields run for 3 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+23
82.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 23 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
82.2%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Greedy Williams) to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
81.4%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
81.5%
D'Andre Swift run for 4 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+8
82.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 8 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
81.6%
Elijah Holyfield run for 13 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
69.8%
Elijah Holyfield run for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2277% → 74%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
76.9%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr Chase, broken up by Brenton CoxSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
75.8%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:39
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+27
74.2%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 37 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 27 yds to the LSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 2:1528% → 20%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
72.5%
Mecole Hardman run for no gain to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
73.2%
Brian Herrien run for 4 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 6
OPP 34
-9
74.1%
Jake Fromm sacked by JaCoby Stevens for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 15
OPP 43
-5
79.9%
GEORGIA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 20
OPP 48
0
80.0%
Jake Camarda punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 2:3980% → 96%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+19
79.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 19 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
81.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Tory Carter for 10 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
82.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+36
82.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 36 yds to the Geo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
84.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 17 yds to the Geo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.8%
Joe Burrow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4096% → 99%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
96.0%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the Geo 13Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+1
96.2%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the Geo 12Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
98.4%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the Geo 12 LSU Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:20
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+30
99.3%
Cole Tracy 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:151% → 11%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 9 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
98.7%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
98.7%
D'Andre Swift run for 4 yds to the Geo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+35
98.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 35 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
89.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 27 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:4196% → 100%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
95.9%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+11
96.1%
Nick Brossette run for 11 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+59
96.6%
Joe Burrow run for 59 yds to the Geo 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.7%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 8 yds to the Geo 33Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
99.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Elijah Holyfield for 7 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.3%
Jake Fromm pass intercepted John Battle return for no gain to the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 13 yds · 3:01100% → 100%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
99.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+5
99.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+5
99.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:07
Elijah Holyfield run for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-11.8
TD · Q4 9:31
Joe Burrow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)
+11.5
TD · Q4 6:00
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 27 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
-9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com