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TENN

Tennessee 30 at Auburn 24

AUB
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:33 · Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 5 yds to the Tenn 9 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 184Pregame prior+1.8Home team on offense−37.5Score differential−11.2Garbage-time factor−16.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−13.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:44: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 42 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +5.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:26: Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 76 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:25: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 25 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +20.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:04: Brent Cimaglia 20 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +7.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:37: Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Seth Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +12.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 7TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 5:24TENN 4th & 6 at AUB 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:20AUB 4th & 2 at TENN 2, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.6%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:33TENN 4th & 7 at AUB 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:18TENN 4th & 27 at TENN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:55TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:55AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−1.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:07TENN 4th & 3 at AUB 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.9
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00TENN 4th & 1 at AUB 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    21.7%−2.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:12AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:54AUB 4th & 5 at TENN 35, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.0%−1.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:54TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:45AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:04TENN 4th & 2 at AUB 2, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.2%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−14.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:04AUB 4th & 4 at TENN 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−6.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:39TENN 4th & 5 at AUB 35, up 13
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%−0.3
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:33AUB 4th & 4 at TENN 14, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%−0.7
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:44AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:44TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:26AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:25TENN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:37AUB Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:1686% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.7%
Anthony Schwartz run for 9 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
85.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
85.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
85.7%
Shaun Shivers run for 8 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
85.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+8
85.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 8 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
85.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
85.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to JaTarvious Whitlow for 3 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
85.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 5 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
85.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Seth Williams for 15 yds to the Tenn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
85.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+17
85.7%
Anthony Schwartz run for 17 yds to the Tenn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
85.7%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Tenn 1Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.6%
Chandler Cox run for 1 yd for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:2015% → 17%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
85.2%
Ty Chandler run for 18 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
85.0%
J. Guarantano left screen pass complete to T. Chandler for 6 yards to the UT49 (Christian Tutt), PENALTY UT holding (T. Smith) 10 yards to the UT33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+1
85.2%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 19
OWN 34
+19
85.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tim Jordan for 19 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
84.9%
Tim Jordan run for 18 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
84.7%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
84.7%
Jarrett Guarantano run for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
84.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete, broken up by Jamel DeanSimilar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
83.4%
Brent Cimaglia 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3FG
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:0484% → 84%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
83.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 14 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
83.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Malik Miller for 23 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
84.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 6 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+17
84.2%
Malik Miller run for 17 yds to the Tenn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
84.2%
Jarrett Stidham run for 2 yds to the Tenn 13Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+10
84.2%
Jarrett Stidham run for 10 yds to the Tenn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
84.2%
Malik Miller run for no gain to the Tenn 3Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
84.2%
Malik Miller run for 1 yd to the Tenn 2Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
84.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete, broken up by Bryce ThompsonSimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
84.4%
Anders Carlson 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4MISSED FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 3:4716% → 17%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
84.0%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
84.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 6 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
83.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
84.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete, broken up by Jeremiah DinsonSimilar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+30
84.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 30 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
82.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
82.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+4
83.4%
Tim Jordan run for 4 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+4
83.4%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+48
83.3%
Brent Cimaglia 48 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Marlon DavidsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
84.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+6
84.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass intercepted Bryce Thompson return for 6 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:2117% → 23%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
83.1%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-5
83.1%
J. Guarantano left sideline pass complete to T. Chandler for 39 yards to the AU18, out-of-bounds (Marlon Davidson), PENALTY UT ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the UT38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 13
OWN 38
0
83.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+20
83.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 20 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
82.5%
Tim Jordan run for no gain to the Aub 42Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+42
77.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 42 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7INT
10 plays · 60 yds · 1:2179% → 81%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
79.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 7
OWN 14
-2
79.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Shaun Shivers for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 12Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+15
78.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Seth Williams for 15 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
79.8%
Jarrett Stidham run for 4 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
79.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 2 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+26
79.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 26 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
81.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 5 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+10
81.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass intercepted Jonathan Kongbo return for 10 yds to the Aub 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -17 yds · 2:1626% → 25%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
74.1%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-1
74.4%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 40Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 13
OPP 40
-5
75.4%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Dominick Wood-Anderson) to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 18
OPP 45
-9
75.6%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Nick Coe for a loss of 9 yards to the Tenn 46Similar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 27
OWN 46
0
75.2%
Joe Doyle punt for 34 yds, downed at the Aub 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:4377% → 83%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
76.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+76
83.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 76 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3117% → 17%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
83.3%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 24Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
83.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 6 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
83.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tim Jordan for 4 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
82.9%
Joe Doyle punt for 64 yds, downed at the Aub 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5082% → 82%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
82.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+1
81.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Aub 6Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 6
OWN 6
0
82.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 6
OWN 6
0
81.7%
Arryn Siposs punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:3718% → 21%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
82.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 7 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
81.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+10
81.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 10 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
80.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jordan Murphy for 7 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
80.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh Palmer, broken up by Big Kat BryantSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
80.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+45
78.6%
Brent Cimaglia 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
78.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
78.0%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
78.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 3 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+25
78.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 25 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
75.4%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+10
76.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 10 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
75.4%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
76.7%
Madre London run for no gain to the Aub 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
78.4%
Ryan Davis run for 5 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-2
78.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 43Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
77.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
76.3%
Arryn Siposs punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 14 , Marquez Callaway returns for no gain to the Tenn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 6:2422% → 47%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
78.0%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-5
77.8%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Dontavius Russell and Big Kat Bryant for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 14Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+11
79.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 11 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
77.8%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 21Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+12
78.2%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 12 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
77.3%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
76.7%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Tenn 39Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
76.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+36
77.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 36 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
73.5%
Tim Jordan run for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
73.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
53.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 25 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -17 yds · 0:4757% → 35%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
35.1%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Kyle Phillips and Alexis Johnson Jr. for a loss of 15 yards Jarrett Stidham fumbled, recovered by Tenn Darrell Taylor , return for 0 yards , return for 8 yds (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18MISSED FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 2:3234% → 32%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
34.2%
Malik Miller run for 4 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
34.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+10
33.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 10 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
35.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
35.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Kam MartinSimilar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+23
33.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Seth Williams for 23 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
38.7%
Malik Miller run for 5 yds to the Tenn 35 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive holding (Darius Slayton) to the Tenn 45Similar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 15
OPP 45
0
37.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+10
37.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 10 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
38.6%
Jarrett Stidham run for no gain to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+54
32.4%
Anders Carlson 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
30.3%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-4
29.4%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by T.D. Moultry and Montavious Atkinson for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 34Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+9
33.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 9 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+53
31.7%
Joe Doyle punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ryan Davis at the AUBURN 7 AUBURN Penalty, delay of game (Ryan Davis) to the Aub 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
26.1%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd to the Aub 5Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 5
0
25.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kam Martin for no gain to the Aub 5Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 9
OWN 5
0
24.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete, broken up by Shawn ShamburgerSimilar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 9
OWN 5
0
24.0%
Arryn Siposs punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Aub 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21FG
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:0579% → 90%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+42
20.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 42 yds to the Aub 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
19.7%
Tim Jordan run for 1 yd to the Aub 6Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
16.6%
Tim Jordan run for 4 yds to the Aub 2Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
17.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q4 9:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
9.8%
Brent Cimaglia 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:0014% → 17%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
13.9%
Anthony Schwartz run for 18 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
15.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
14.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 3
50
+5
15.9%
Malik Miller run for 5 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
16.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Malik Miller for 6 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+8
17.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Sal Cannella for 8 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
19.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Sal CannellaSimilar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
19.0%
Jarrett Stidham run for 6 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
18.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Sal Cannella, broken up by Marquill OsborneSimilar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 4
OPP 25
-7
16.6%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Deandre Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 3:4193% → 97%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
6.8%
Ty Chandler run for 9 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+7
6.3%
Tim Jordan run for 7 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
6.2%
Tim Jordan run for no gain to the Tenn 48Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
6.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+12
6.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eli Wolf for 12 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
6.1%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-1
6.2%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+5
3.1%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive offside (Deshaun Davis) to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
3.0%
Tim Jordan run for no gain to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
3.4%
Joe Doyle punt for 23 yds, downed at the Aub 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24TD
15 plays · 88 yds · 1:562% → 16%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
2.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Malik Miller for 5 yds to the Aub 17Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+18
2.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Seth Williams for 18 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
2.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Sal Cannella for 1 yd to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
2.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+8
2.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Malik Miller for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
50
+6
2.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+9
2.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Malik Miller for 9 yds Malik Miller fumbled, forced by Alontae Taylor, recovered by Aub Ryan Davis for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
3.5%
TENNESSEE Penalty, personal foul (Daniel Bituli) to the Tenn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
3.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Sal CannellaSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
3.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+6
3.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Malik Miller for 6 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+5
3.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 5 yds to the Tenn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
3.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
3.6%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (Prince Tega Wanogho) to the Tenn 14Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
15.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Seth Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:25
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 25 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
-20.5
TD · Q4 0:37
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Seth Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)
+12.1
FG · Q4 9:04
Brent Cimaglia 20 yd FG GOOD
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com