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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMISS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:42 · Cole Kelley pass intercepted Zedrick Woods return for no gain to the Miss 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 2:36: Connor Limpert 38 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +12.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:28: Connor Limpert 38 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +13.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:29: Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 66 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +15.5 pts (now 40%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:15: Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +27.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:42: Scottie Phillips run for 5 yds for a TD Timeout OLE MISS, clock 00:42 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MISS win probability +47.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 12:49MISS 4th & 5 at ARK 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snapGo for it64.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call64.5%77% to makePunt64.1%−0.4average punt
- Q1 12:49ARK 4th & 1 at MISS 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.5%71% to convertField goal35.4%−0.164% to makePunt35.0%−0.5average punt
- Q1 7:41ARK 4th & 11 at MISS 25, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snapGo for it36.6%−0.225% to convertField goalTheir call36.8%66% to makePunt35.8%−1.0average punt
- Q1 7:41MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 43, tiedClose callPunted · 62.7% before the snapGo for it62.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 7:03MISS 4th & 13 at ARK 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.2% before the snapGo for it36.7%−1.420% to convertField goalTheir call38.1%62% to makePunt33.2%−5.0average punt
- Q2 2:36ARK 4th & 4 at MISS 20, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snapGo for it67.1%47% to convertField goalTheir call66.7%−0.475% to makePunt60.6%−6.5average punt
- Q3 9:28ARK 4th & 10 at MISS 20, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.6% before the snapGo for it67.6%−1.728% to convertField goalTheir call69.4%75% to makePunt61.2%−8.2average punt
- Q3 2:33ARK 4th & 8 at MISS 18, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.2% before the snapGo for it67.2%−1.832% to convertField goalTheir call69.0%79% to makePunt56.6%−12.4average punt
- Q4 13:47MISS 4th & 3 at ARK 11, down 9Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 22.9% before the snapGo for it22.8%50% to convertField goalTheir call21.8%−1.187% to makePunt7.0%−15.9average punt
- Q4 8:31ARK 4th & 15 at MISS 47, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snapGo for it82.9%−2.017% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.9%average punt
- Q4 2:18ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 33, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snapGo for it70.1%−1.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 3:24ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.1%97% to makeGo for two43.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:31ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.5%97% to makeGo for two51.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:23MISS Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.2%97% to makeGo for two52.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:50ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.5%97% to makeGo for two57.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:33MISS Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.3%97% to makeGo for two34.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:29MISS Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.1%97% to makeGo for two33.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:15MISS Touchdown, down 3 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.0 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call27.1%−1.097% to makeGo for two28.1%45% to convert
- Q4 0:42MISS Touchdown, up 4 before the tryNumbers favored kick by 1.1 ptsWent for two · failedKick82.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call81.4%−1.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMISSDrive 1FG7 plays · 56 yds · 2:1167% → 67%
ARKDrive 2FG12 plays · 50 yds · 5:0834% → 36%
Q1 12:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+38
33.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 38 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
33.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for no gain to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
33.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for no gain to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 9
OPP 23
-2
33.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
ARKDrive 4TD7 plays · 78 yds · 3:0136% → 43%
Q1 3:24
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+39
42.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 39 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5INT7 plays · 40 yds · 1:4258% → 60%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-6
41.5%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Randy Ramsey for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+19
42.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 19 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
40.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass intercepted, touchback. Ryan Pulley return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD3 plays · 80 yds · 1:0443% → 50%
MISSDrive 7TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0851% → 58%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
48.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 9 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+13
49.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 13 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
48.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus Lodge, PENALTY AR pass interference (J. McClellion) 15 yards to the AR37, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3346% → 57%
Q2 12:23
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+15
47.9%
Ty Storey run for no gain to the Miss 49 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
45.8%
PENALTY AR unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY OM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
48.2%
Jared Cornelius pass complete to Ty Storey for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+39
56.8%
Cole Kelley pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 39 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9MISSED FG10 plays · 33 yds · 3:4747% → 41%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
51.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 9 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
51.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 10 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
50.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus Lodge, broken up by Jarques McClellionSimilar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 8
OPP 22
-5
51.8%
Jordan Ta'amu run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 27 Jordan Ta'amu fumbled, forced by Jamario Bell, recovered by Miss Scottie PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10FG10 plays · 52 yds · 4:2759% → 72%
MISSDrive 11TD13 plays · 77 yds · 2:0330% → 44%
Q2 2:36
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+18
70.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 18 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
68.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Scottie Phillips for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+13
72.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 13 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
69.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 11 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
68.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 17 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
55.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 6 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13FG11 plays · 55 yds · 5:3263% → 77%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+4
62.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 4 yds to the Miss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14TD6 plays · 79 yds · 1:5924% → 40%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
75.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 8 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+6
74.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 6 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
74.7%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by De'Jon Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 33Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+66
60.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 66 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15FG12 plays · 57 yds · 4:5662% → 76%
Q3 7:29
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+17
65.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 17 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16MISSED FG12 plays · 64 yds · 3:4625% → 24%
ARKDrive 17PUNT15 plays · 33 yds · 5:1679% → 83%
Q4 13:47
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-15
80.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 20
OWN 31
+15
79.3%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Mike Woods, PENALTY OM pass interference (Jalen Julius) 15 yards to the AR46, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 11
OPP 43
-4
85.1%
Cole Kelley sacked by Tariqious Tisdale for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 8:31
4TH & 15
OPP 47
0
83.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Braylon Sanders at the Miss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD10 plays · 84 yds · 2:5414% → 48%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
85.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 8 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
84.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 8 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
83.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 4 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
81.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 7 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+11
81.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for 11 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT10 plays · 23 yds · 1:5771% → 71%
MISSDrive 20TD7 plays · 97 yds · 1:2034% → 95%
Q4 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+20
66.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 20 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
64.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Braylon Sanders, broken up by Jarques McClellionSimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+48
65.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 48 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+5
4.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 5 yds for a TD Timeout OLE MISS, clock 00:42 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:42
Scottie Phillips run for 5 yds for a TD Timeout OLE MISS, clock 00:42 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-47.8
TD · Q4 4:15
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)
-27.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17.1