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MIZ

Missouri 10 at Alabama 39

ALA
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGSAFETYTDEnd of GameFG—ALA 96.3%Joseph Bulovas 30 Yd Field GoalAWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q1 13:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:07 · Joseph Bulovas 30 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior+45.8Home team on offense+0.5Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:02: Jalen Knox 20 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Tucker McCann Kick) — MIZ win probability +1.4 pts (now 7%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  2. TD · Q2 11:36: Irv Smith Jr. 2 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +1.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:07: DeVonta Smith 13 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +2.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 2:33: Joseph Bulovas 21 Yd Field Goal — ALA win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:32: Damien Harris 2 Yd Run (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 7MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 13:07ALA 4th & 8 at MIZ 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:33MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:31MIZ 4th & 2 at ALA 25, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.7%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:13ALA 4th & 3 at MIZ 10, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.8%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:01MIZ 4th & 3 at ALA 47, down 17
    Close callPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:33ALA 4th & 3 at MIZ 3, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:13MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 48, down 20
    Close callPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:50MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 28, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:37ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 47, up 20
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:58MIZ 4th & 15 at MIZ 36, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:12ALA 4th & 9 at MIZ 34, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:13MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 36, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:04ALA 4th & 1 at MIZ 6, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:12MIZ 4th & 9 at ALA 34, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:54MIZ 4th & 4 at ALA 8, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:07ALA 4th & 6 at MIZ 45, up 29
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    25% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:37ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:02MIZ Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:36ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:07ALA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:32ALA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 0:1396% → 96%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
96.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+81
96.4%
Jerry Jeudy 81 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:304% → 4%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 7 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+33
96.3%
Drew Lock pass intercepted Saivion Smith return for 33 yds to the Misso 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4396% → 96%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
96.4%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Misso 12Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
96.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
96.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+30
96.3%
Joseph Bulovas 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:304% → 4%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
96.2%
Damarea Crockett run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 16Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+1
96.1%
Damarea Crockett run for 1 yd to the Misso 17Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+23
96.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 23 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
96.0%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
95.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
96.0%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
96.0%
Corey Fatony punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5FUMBLE
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:5796% → 96%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
96.0%
Josh Jacobs run for 6 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 4
OWN 23
-4
96.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 6 yds to the Alab 23 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (DeVonta Smith) to the Alab 13Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
95.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Hale HentgesSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+22
95.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 22 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
95.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 18 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
95.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 9 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 1
OPP 38
-14
95.8%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Kobie Whiteside for a loss of 14 yards to the Alab 48 Tua Tagovailoa fumbled, forced by Kobie Whiteside, recovered by Misso Akial Byers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:534% → 5%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
95.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 9 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+6
95.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
95.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-5
95.5%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 37Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+12
95.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 12 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+43
95.4%
Tucker McCann 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:0496% → 95%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
95.5%
Josh Jacobs run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 21Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+21
95.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 21 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
95.4%
Damien Harris run for 10 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
95.4%
Damien Harris run for 20 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
95.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 11 yds to the Misso 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
95.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jalen Hurts for 7 yds to the Misso 10Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
95.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
95.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+28
95.1%
Joseph Bulovas 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:025% → 7%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
95.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+13
95.2%
Tyler Badie run for 13 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
95.0%
Tyler Badie run for 3 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+16
94.9%
Tyler Badie run for 16 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+21
94.6%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Mack Wilson) to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
93.2%
Jalen Knox 20 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Tucker McCann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2494% → 94%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
93.5%
Najee Harris run for 10 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+29
93.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 14 yds to the ALABAMA 48 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
93.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 13 yds to the Misso 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
93.7%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+8
93.7%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Misso 15 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Targeting (Terez Hall) to the Misso 7 for a 1ST down. Terez Hall ejected for Targeting.Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
93.5%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Misso 5Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
93.4%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Misso 2Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.4%
Irv Smith Jr. 2 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:065% → 6%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
94.5%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-18
94.5%
Drew Lock sacked by Isaiah Buggs for a loss of 18 yards to the Misso 13 Drew Lock fumbled, forced by Isaiah Buggs, recovered by Alab Anfernee Jennings , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
96.9%
DeVonta Smith 13 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:594% → 4%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
96.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Case Cook) to the Misso 20Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
96.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+24
96.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jalen Knox for 24 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
95.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-2
95.8%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+8
95.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 8 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
95.6%
Corey Fatony punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13FG
10 plays · 83 yds · 3:2297% → 98%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
96.6%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 14Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+9
96.5%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+3
96.5%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+57
96.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 57 yds to the Misso 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
96.8%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Misso 14Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 17
OPP 24
+20
96.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Damien Harris for 20 yds to the Misso 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
96.8%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Misso 3Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
96.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q2 2:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
96.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
97.9%
Joseph Bulovas 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:122% → 2%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
97.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jalen Knox for 17 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
97.5%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
97.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 6 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
97.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
97.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 51 yds, downed at the Alab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 1:0798% → 98%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
98.2%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 2Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+2
98.2%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:002% → 2%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 6 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
97.7%
Larry Rountree III run for no gain to the Misso 31Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
97.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Paul Adams) to the Misso 26Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
98.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Tyler Badie for 2 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
97.8%
Corey Fatony punt for 45 yds, downed at the Alab 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:0598% → 98%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
98.4%
Damien Harris run for 11 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
98.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+9
98.3%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 9 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
98.0%
Skyler DeLong punt for 12 yds, downed at the Misso 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:323% → 2%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Jalen KnoxSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
97.5%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-8
97.6%
Drew Lock sacked by Isaiah Buggs and Raekwon Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the Misso 36Similar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 15
OWN 36
+19
98.0%
Corey Fatony punt for 34 yds, downed at the ALABAMA 30 MISSOURI Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Jalen Knox) to the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 4:3898% → 98%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
98.4%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 5
50
+4
98.4%
Josh Jacobs run for 4 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
98.4%
Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
98.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 7 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+3
98.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
98.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 7 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 3
OPP 28
-5
98.5%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 33Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-1
98.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Derek Kief for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 34Similar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+52
98.3%
Joseph Bulovas 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:542% → 2%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
98.1%
Tyler Badie run for 2 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
98.2%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
98.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+1
98.4%
Corey Fatony punt for 52 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 1 yd to the Alab 13 Jaylen Waddle fumbled, recovered by Alab Jaylen WaddleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 81 yds · 4:0199% → 99%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
98.6%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+8
98.6%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
98.7%
Najee Harris run for 14 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+44
98.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 44 yds to the Misso 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
98.8%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Misso 10Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-10
98.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Irv Smith Jr.) to the Misso 20Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+5
99.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+9
99.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 9 yds to the Misso 6Similar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
99.0%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Misso 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22SF
1 play · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
99.2%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:1399% → 100%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
99.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 8 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
99.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+29
99.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 29 yds to the Misso 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Misso 2Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Damien Harris 2 Yd Run (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24DOWNS
19 plays · 50 yds · 7:310% → 0%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 8 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Misso 34Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Jalen Knox run for 6 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
100.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
100.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Kendall Blanton for 4 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 3
50
+18
99.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Raekwon Davis) to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Jalen KnoxSimilar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-1
100.0%
Drew Lock sacked by Mack Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+9
100.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 9 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
100.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Larry Rountree IIISimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
100.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 6 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+5
99.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 5 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
100.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Alab 13Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+6
100.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Alab 7Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-1
100.0%
Damarea Crockett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 8Similar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 4
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Drew Lock pass intercepted, touchback. Saivion Smith return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 5:41100% → 100%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.9%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 19Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
99.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 12 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
100.0%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+1
100.0%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+17
100.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Derek Kief for 17 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Misso 46Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+1
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Misso 45Similar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 6
OPP 45
-1
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:07
DeVonta Smith 13 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)
+2.4
TD · Q1 0:02
Jalen Knox 20 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Tucker McCann Kick)
-1.4
FG · Q2 2:33
Joseph Bulovas 21 Yd Field Goal
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com