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AUB

Auburn 9 at Mississippi State 23

MSST
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGFGFGTDEnd of GameTD+3.9MSST 98.1%Nick Fitzgerald 21 Yd Run (JaceChristmann Kick)AWAY 9 - HOME 23 · Q4 2:02
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:02 · Nick Fitzgerald 21 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense+29.4Garbage-time factor+14.8Pregame prior−0.2Score differential+12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.0Blowout margin−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:00: Nick Fitzgerald 1 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick) — MSST win probability +10.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:55: Jace Christmann 32 Yd Field Goal — MSST win probability +6.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:45: Anders Carlson 38 Yd Field Goal — AUB win probability +3.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:24: Anders Carlson 24 Yd Field Goal — AUB win probability +3.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:02: Nick Fitzgerald 21 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick) — MSST win probability +3.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 13:53AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:25MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:28AUB 4th & 13 at AUB 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:30AUB 4th & 1 at MSST 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%−0.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:37MSST 4th & 4 at AUB 8, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:52AUB 4th & 1 at MSST 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%−1.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:44AUB 4th & 8 at MSST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:13MSST 4th & 8 at AUB 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:37AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:23MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00MSST 4th & 1 at AUB 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    55.2%−3.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−11.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:55MSST 4th & 2 at AUB 15, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%−0.9
    83% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−7.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:45AUB 4th & 10 at MSST 20, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−5.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:17MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:46MSST 4th & 1 at AUB 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−3.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    79.7%−2.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:24AUB 4th & 6 at MSST 6, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.2%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−8.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:38MSST 4th & 3 at AUB 42, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.0%−3.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−2.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:33AUB 4th & 7 at MSST 30, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−5.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:37AUB 4th & 21 at MSST 30, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 0:00MSST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 2:02MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5757% → 56%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.6%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
43.7%
Jarrett Stidham run for 3 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 13:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
43.8%
Arryn Siposs punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1644% → 44%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
43.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 3 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+1
43.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
44.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+5
44.0%
Tucker Day punt for 48 yds , Ryan Davis returns for 5 yds to the Aub 32 Ryan Davis fumbled, recovered by AubSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5356% → 55%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
44.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
44.3%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
44.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 8
OWN 34
-5
44.6%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
44.7%
Arryn Siposs punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3345% → 45%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
44.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
44.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+7
44.9%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
45.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
45.4%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+12
45.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Jeremiah Dinson return for 12 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0856% → 56%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
44.3%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
44.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Tucker Brown for 9 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
44.4%
Asa Martin run for no gain to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+47
44.4%
Anders Carlson 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:4244% → 47%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.3%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
44.9%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
44.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+12
45.2%
Aeris Williams run for 12 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+29
45.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 29 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
46.1%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 15Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-1
46.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 16Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+8
45.6%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
47.2%
Jace Christmann 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7MISSED FG
13 plays · 42 yds · 4:3154% → 54%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
45.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 14 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
44.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 6 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+10
44.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 10 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
44.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 2 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+4
44.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+3
44.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to JaTarvious Whitlow for 3 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
45.7%
Jarrett Stidham run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
44.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 8 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+1
44.1%
Malik Willis run for 1 yd to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 1
OPP 25
-7
44.8%
Kam Martin run for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
46.4%
Anders Carlson 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:2648% → 51%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
48.4%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+23
49.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 23 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
50.6%
Kylin Hill run for 10 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
51.3%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
51.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
50.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+47
50.6%
Jace Christmann 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9FUMBLE
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:2849% → 49%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
50.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 12 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
50.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
49.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
49.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
50.7%
Arryn Siposs punt for 49 yds , Keith Mixon returns for no gain to the MisSt 6 Keith Mixon fumbled, recovered by MisStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10FUMBLE
8 plays · 28 yds · 4:0651% → 52%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+13
50.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 13 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
51.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+3
52.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+6
52.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
53.1%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
53.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
52.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Austin Williams for no gain to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+3
51.6%
Tucker Day punt for 33 yds , Ryan Davis returns for 3 yds to the Aub 36 Ryan Davis fumbled, recovered by MisStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11END OF HALF
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:1058% → 70%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
57.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 15 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
59.1%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+6
59.2%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the Aub 12Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+7
58.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
59.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 4 yds to the Aub 1Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Aub 1Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.4%
Nick Fitzgerald 1 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 7:5468% → 81%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
69.2%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
70.4%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
71.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+6
71.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
73.1%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
73.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+5
73.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
75.1%
Kylin Hill run for 10 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
74.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 3 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+5
75.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
74.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Aub 15Similar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
81.4%
Jace Christmann 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:0220% → 26%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
79.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 42 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
75.1%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 13 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
74.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
75.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
76.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
73.6%
Anders Carlson 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2075% → 75%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.0%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
76.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
75.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
75.0%
Tucker Day punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ryan Davis at the Aub 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:1225% → 27%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
74.9%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 23 Jarrett Stidham fumbled, recovered by AubSimilar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 17
OWN 23
0
76.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 17
OWN 23
+26
78.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to John Shenker for 26 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
73.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+1
72.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Malik Miller for 1 yd to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+42
73.2%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 42 yds JaTarvious Whitlow fumbled, recovered by MisStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 38 yds · 3:0179% → 82%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
78.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 19 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
81.4%
Kylin Hill run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
83.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-1
83.1%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+6
81.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 6 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 13:46
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-1
81.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:0921% → 25%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
79.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
78.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
77.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 1 yd to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
77.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+22
79.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 22 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
76.1%
Anthony Schwartz run for 17 yds to the MisSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
76.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
76.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
78.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
74.7%
Anders Carlson 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:4182% → 85%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.6%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
82.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 10 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+39
84.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 39 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
85.9%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
86.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+4
86.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+17
84.9%
Jace Christmann 31 yd FG BLOCKED for a 1ST down blocked by Marlon Davidson for a 1ST down for a 1ST down Daniel Thomas return for 32 yds to the MisSt 0 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:5723% → 20%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
76.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+10
77.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 10 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
75.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
74.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
78.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 7
OPP 30
0
80.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:1987% → 98%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
86.8%
Kylin Hill run for 17 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
89.8%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-2
90.3%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+5
91.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
92.9%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+5
93.6%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
93.6%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
94.2%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+21
98.1%
Nick Fitzgerald 21 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 35 yds · 1:133% → 3%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-8
97.1%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 8 yards to the Aub 27Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+14
97.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 14 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
97.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Sal Cannella for 5 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+24
97.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 24 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
96.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Sal Cannella for 11 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
96.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
96.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-11
97.1%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 11 yards to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 21
OPP 30
0
97.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22Uncategorized
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
Nick Fitzgerald 1 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)
+10.9
FG · Q3 6:55
Jace Christmann 32 Yd Field Goal
+6.8
TD · Q4 2:02
Nick Fitzgerald 21 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com