2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreVAN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:30 · Ryley Guay 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:49: Elijah Holyfield run for 24 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +2.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 2:18: Ryley Guay 42 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +1.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:14: Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 10 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +2.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:45: Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 35 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q3 3:41: Rodrigo Blankenship 53 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 13:59VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.5%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q1 13:11UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 26, tiedClose callPunted · 94.4% before the snapGo for it94.4%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 10:30VAN 4th & 3 at UGA 7, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.3%46% to convertField goalTheir call6.2%−0.191% to makePunt5.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:25VAN 4th & 9 at UGA 40, down 4Close callPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.5%32% to convertField goal6.5%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call6.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:11UGA 4th & 18 at VAN 48, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snapGo for it91.9%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.2%average punt
- Q2 10:35VAN 4th & 1 at UGA 14, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.5%71% to convertField goal10.1%−0.584% to makePunt8.7%−1.8average punt
- Q2 2:18VAN 4th & 4 at UGA 24, down 11Close callKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snapGo for it7.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call7.8%−0.168% to makePunt6.5%−1.4average punt
- Q3 8:57VAN 4th & 13 at VAN 35, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.620% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q3 3:41UGA 4th & 16 at VAN 36, up 22Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.1%−0.316% to convertField goalTheir call98.4%42% to makePunt98.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 2:34VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 28, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q3 0:00VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 33, down 32Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:22UGA 4th & 11 at VAN 11, up 32Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.122% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%87% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 6:37VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 48, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:28UGA 4th & 9 at UGA 22, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:15UGA Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.9%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:49UGA Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two92.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:14UGA Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.6%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:45UGA Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:02VAN Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.0%97% to makeGo for two0.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVANDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:584% → 4%
Q1 13:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+13
95.9%
Parker Thome punt for 51 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 13 yds to the Geo 45 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyler Simmons) to the Geo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3996% → 96%
VANDrive 3FG6 plays · 50 yds · 2:274% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
95.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 75 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 35 yds · 1:395% → 5%
UGADrive 6PUNT13 plays · 32 yds · 5:0195% → 94%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
94.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 3 yds to the Geo 23Similar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
94.7%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Roughing Passer (Dayo Odeyingbo) to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
94.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for no gain to the Geo 45Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+15
94.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 15 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
94.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 9 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-14
94.3%
GEORGIA Penalty, Face Mask (14 yards) (Andrew Thomas) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 20
50
+2
94.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Elijah Holyfield for 2 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 18
OPP 48
0
93.8%
Jake Camarda punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trey Ellis at the Vandy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7DOWNS16 plays · 81 yds · 7:256% → 8%
Q1 2:15
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+12
94.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 12 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
93.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 6 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
93.6%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Tae Crowder for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 26 Kyle Shurmur fumbled, recovered by Vandy Jared Southers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
93.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for 22 yds to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+15
92.8%
GEORGIA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Tyson Campbell) to the Geo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+14
92.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 14 yds C.J. Bolar fumbled, forced by Richard LeCounte, recovered by Vandy Sam DobbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD9 plays · 86 yds · 2:3192% → 94%
Q2 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+17
92.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 17 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
92.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 5 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+15
91.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Randall Haynie) to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+24
94.3%
Elijah Holyfield run for 24 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9FG14 plays · 51 yds · 5:236% → 8%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
94.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 3 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+20
94.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trey Ellis for 20 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+13
94.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Josh Crawford for 13 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+15
93.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 15 yds to the Geo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10TD7 plays · 75 yds · 0:5693% → 96%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
93.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 14 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
93.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 28 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
93.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 12 yds to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
93.4%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 11 yds to the Vandy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
95.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 10 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11END OF HALF3 plays · 6 yds · 0:305% → 5%
UGADrive 12TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0795% → 98%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
94.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Riley Ridley for 9 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 1
OWN 45
-15
95.1%
GEORGIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Lamont Gaillard) to the Geo 30Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+25
94.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 25 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
98.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 35 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 2:392% → 2%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
97.8%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 33Similar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 15
OWN 33
-5
98.0%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 28Similar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 13
OWN 35
-4
98.1%
Parker Thome punt for 50 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 31 GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Tyler Simmons) to the Geo 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14FG16 plays · 58 yds · 5:0298% → 100%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+24
98.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 24 yds to the Geo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-15
98.4%
GEORGIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cade Mays) to the Geo 27Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
98.4%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 9 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-6
98.7%
Justin Fields sacked by Josh Smith and Tae Daley for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:071% → 1%
UGADrive 16TD4 plays · 56 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
99.6%
Justin Fields pass complete to Terry Godwin for 20 yds to the Vandy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
99.9%
Brian Herrien run for 11 yds Brian Herrien fumbled, forced by Jordan Griffin, recovered by Geo Brian Herrien , return for 1 yd, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:550% → 0%
UGADrive 18FG12 plays · 67 yds · 5:33100% → 100%
VANDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 2:330% → 0%
Q4 8:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
100.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Chris Pierce for 5 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
100.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 11 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Parker Thome punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Terry Godwin at the Geo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20PUNT5 plays · 12 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
Q4 4:07
3RD & 2
OWN 29
-7
100.0%
Matthew Downing run for a loss of 7 yards to the Geo 22 Matthew Downing fumbled, recovered by Geo Matthew DowningSimilar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 9
OWN 22
+5
100.0%
Jake Camarda punt for 41 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 5 yds to the Vandy 27 GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21TD11 plays · 53 yds · 3:200% → 0%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
100.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Malik Herring) to the Geo 48Similar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
100.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (DeAngelo Gibbs) to the Geo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+9
100.0%
Mo Hasan pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 9 yds to the Geo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
100.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (William Poole) to the Geo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 22END OF GAME2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:45
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 35 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
+3
TD · Q2 1:14
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 10 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q2 7:49
Elijah Holyfield run for 24 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
+2.1