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TNST

Tennessee State 27 at Vanderbilt 31

VAN
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadTNST aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreTNST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:36 · Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Terry Straughter return for 10 yds to the TenSt 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Pregame prior+45.4Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:32: Demry Croft pass complete to Treon Harris for 31 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita PAT MISSED) — TNST win probability +6.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: TNST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:06: Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 78 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +5.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:35: DeMarco Corbin run for 2 yds for a TD (Antonio Zita KICK) — TNST win probability +8.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 8:02: Demry Croft pass complete to Andrew Knox for 1 yd for a TD (Antonio Zita KICK) — TNST win probability +32.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TNST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:20: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 68 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +30.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TNST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00TNST 4th & 6 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:36VAN 4th & 2 at TNST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.8%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:08TNST 4th & 14 at VAN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:21VAN 4th & 5 at TNST 9, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:09TNST 4th & 14 at TNST 16, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:10TNST 4th & 13 at TNST 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:35VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 40, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:59TNST 4th & 4 at TNST 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:20VAN 4th & 6 at TNST 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−7.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:08TNST 4th & 1 at VAN 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%−4.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−10.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:08TNST 4th & 4 at VAN 15, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.4 ptsWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%−4.4
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−15.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TNST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 14:47TNST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:23VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:32TNST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:10VAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:06VAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:35TNST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:02TNST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−1.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:20VAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TNSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
96.7%
Demry Croft pass complete to Treon Harris for 10 yds to the TenSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
96.7%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 3 yds to the TenSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-10
96.7%
Demry Croft run for 4 yds to the VANDERBILT 47 TENNESSEE ST Penalty, illegal block (Te'kendrick Roberson) to the TenSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+7
96.7%
Demry Croft pass complete to Miles Cavitt for 7 yds to the TenSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+4
96.7%
Demry Croft pass complete to DeVon Johnson for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
50
+33
96.7%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 34 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 33 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
96.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the TenSt 46Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+6
96.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jamauri Wakefield for 6 yds to the TenSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
96.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 4 yds to the TenSt 36Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
96.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the TenSt 33Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+1
96.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the TenSt 32Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+10
96.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Terry Straughter return for 10 yds to the TenSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:095% → 5%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
95.3%
Demry Croft pass complete to Aaron Cauthen for 5 yds to the TenSt 46Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+5
95.3%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 5 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
95.3%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 4 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+20
95.3%
Demry Croft pass complete to Treon Harris for 20 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
95.2%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Treon Harris, broken up by Dimitri MooreSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-4
95.2%
Demry Croft run for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 14
OPP 29
0
95.4%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to DeVon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
94.7%
Antonio Zita 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4INT
8 plays · 66 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
94.7%
Kyle Shurmur run for 6 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
94.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+9
94.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 9 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+18
94.6%
Donaven Tennyson run for 18 yds to the VANDERBILT 37 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the TenSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+26
94.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 16 yds to the TenSt 21 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE ST Penalty, personal foul (10 Yards) to the TenSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
94.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the TenSt 7Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
94.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the TenSt 4Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+65
94.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Dajour Nesbeth return for 65 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 5TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:517% → 9%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
93.1%
DeMarco Corbin run for 8 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+10
93.0%
Demry Croft run for 10 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
93.0%
Demry Croft pass complete to Steven Newbold for 12 yds to the Vandy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.0%
DeMarco Corbin run for no gain to the Vandy 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
92.4%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Steven NewboldSimilar
Q2 14:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
90.7%
Demry Croft pass complete to Steven Newbold for 5 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2491% → 93%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.3%
Ja'Veon Marlow run for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
91.6%
Khari Blasingame run for 10 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+35
91.6%
Khari Blasingame run for 35 yds to the TenSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+19
92.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 19 yds to the TenSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
92.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the TenSt 4Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
92.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the TenSt 4Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:518% → 16%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.6%
TENNESSEE ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the TenSt 20Similar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
91.7%
DeMarco Corbin run for 1 yd to the TenSt 21Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+12
91.7%
Demry Croft pass complete to Steven Newbold for 12 yds to the TenSt 33Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
91.5%
Demry Croft run for 12 yds to the TenSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
91.1%
DeMarco Corbin run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 5
50
0
91.0%
DeMarco Corbin run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 5
50
+12
91.1%
Demry Croft pass complete to Treon Harris for 12 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
91.0%
Demry Croft pass complete to Treon Harris for 7 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 3
OPP 31
0
90.8%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for no gain to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+31
84.2%
Demry Croft pass complete to Treon Harris for 31 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8MISSED FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 5:1186% → 83%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
86.2%
Khari Blasingame run for 9 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+4
87.0%
Khari Blasingame run for 4 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
86.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
86.5%
Khari Blasingame run for 7 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+24
87.0%
Khari Blasingame run for 24 yds to the TenSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
86.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. BolarSimilar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
86.6%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the TenSt 29Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+15
85.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 15 yds to the TenSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-9
86.7%
Donaven Tennyson run for 1 yd to the TenSt 13 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding (Jared Pinkney) to the TenSt 23Similar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 19
OPP 23
0
86.5%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the TenSt 23Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 19
OPP 23
+8
85.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 8 yds to the TenSt 15Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 11
OPP 15
-5
85.8%
VANDERBILT Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TenSt 20Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 16
OPP 20
+11
85.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Chris Pierce for 11 yds to the TenSt 9Similar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
83.1%
Ryley Guay 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:1219% → 20%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the TenSt 12 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TenSt Te'kendrick RobersonSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+4
80.0%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 4 yds to the TenSt 16Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
80.0%
Demry Croft pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+2
80.5%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 42 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 2 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 0:5481% → 86%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
80.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trey Ellis for 7 yds to the TenSt 49Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+4
81.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 4 yds to the TenSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
81.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 14 yds to the TenSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
82.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+24
82.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 24 yds to the TenSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
82.1%
[SH], Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb, PENALTY TSU pass interference (NESBETH, Dajour) 5 yards to the TSU2, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
85.6%
Ryley Guay 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:5083% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
83.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 9 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+15
84.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 15 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
84.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the TenSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+9
85.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 9 yds to the TenSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
85.2%
Khari Blasingame run for 2 yds to the TenSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-1
85.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the TenSt 38Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+38
87.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 38 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
87.2%
Demry Croft pass complete to Kyle Oliver for 9 yds to the TenSt 34Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
86.0%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 2 yds to the TenSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
86.7%
Demry Croft pass complete to Treon Harris for 8 yds to the TenSt 44Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
85.5%
Demry Croft pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-11
85.7%
Demry Croft sacked by Caleb Peart for a loss of 11 yards to the TenSt 33 TENNESSEE ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Demry Croft) to the TenSt 33Similar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
88.1%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trey Ellis at the Vandy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:2288% → 93%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
87.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+78
92.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 78 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 14TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:318% → 18%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
92.3%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 6 yds to the TenSt 33Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+10
92.1%
Demry Croft pass complete to Treon Harris for 10 yds to the TenSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
92.0%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Treon HarrisSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+20
92.1%
Demry Croft pass complete to Steven Newbold for 20 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
91.4%
Demry Croft pass complete to Steven Newbold for 15 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+20
90.8%
Demry Croft pass complete to DeVon Johnson for 20 yds to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.9%
DeMarco Corbin run for 2 yds for a TD (Antonio Zita KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
86.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+10
86.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 10 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
86.6%
Khari Blasingame run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 28Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+4
86.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 4 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+8
85.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 8 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+3
86.3%
Parker Thome punt for 37 yds , DeVon Johnson returns for 3 yds to the TenSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
82.9%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TenSt 23Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+6
83.4%
Shawn McColley run for 6 yds to the TenSt 29Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+3
83.7%
Demry Croft run for 3 yds to the TenSt 32Similar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
84.0%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17MISSED FG
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:5184% → 83%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
84.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 21 yds to the TenSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
86.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the TenSt 45Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+13
85.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 13 yds to the TenSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
86.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb, broken up by Dajour NesbethSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
86.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the TenSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
85.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Josh Crawford for no gain to the TenSt 28Similar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
82.9%
Ryley Guay 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 18TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:1820% → 61%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
79.8%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Andrew KnoxSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
80.3%
DeMarco Corbin run for 3 yds to the TenSt 31Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+14
80.7%
Demry Croft pass complete to DeVon Johnson for 14 yds to the TenSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
77.5%
Shawn McColley run for 4 yds to the TenSt 49Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-5
76.6%
[SH], CROFT, Demry pass complete to NEWBOLD, Steven for 11 yards to the VANDY40, out-of-bounds (J. Williams), PENALTY TSU illegal formation 5 yards to the TSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+1
78.6%
Shawn McColley run for 1 yd to the TenSt 45Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+17
79.4%
Demry Croft run for 17 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
76.3%
Shawn McColley run for 11 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
74.7%
Shawn McColley run for 2 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+24
74.7%
Demry Croft pass complete to DeVon Johnson for 24 yds to the Vandy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.7%
Demry Croft pass complete to Andrew Knox for 1 yd for a TD (Antonio Zita KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:4254% → 84%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
53.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Vandy 28Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+4
53.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 4 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+68
83.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 68 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 20DOWNS
15 plays · 40 yds · 2:1225% → 18%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
75.4%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 1 yd to the TenSt 46Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
75.9%
[SH], CROFT, Demry pass complete to ROWLAND, Chris for 28 yards to the VANDY26, PENALTY TSU illegal touching (ROWLAND, Chris) 0 yards to the TSU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+12
75.6%
Demry Croft pass complete to Kyle Oliver for 12 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
71.3%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Steven NewboldSimilar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
71.8%
Demry Croft run for 9 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 1
OPP 33
0
70.8%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for no gain to the Vandy 33Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+1
82.4%
Demry Croft run for 1 yd to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
78.3%
Demry Croft pass complete to Treon Harris for 11 yds to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
78.0%
DeMarco Corbin run for 3 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+2
78.0%
DeMarco Corbin run for 2 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+1
80.2%
Shawn McColley run for 1 yd to the Vandy 15Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 4
OPP 15
0
82.5%
Demry Croft pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21END OF GAME
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:1394% → 94%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
93.7%
TENNESSEE ST Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Vandy 21Similar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 5
OWN 21
-5
93.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 16Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-3
94.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 13
OWN 13
-2
94.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:02
Demry Croft pass complete to Andrew Knox for 1 yd for a TD (Antonio Zita KICK)
-32.9
TD · Q4 6:20
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 68 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)
+30.1
TD · Q3 6:35
DeMarco Corbin run for 2 yds for a TD (Antonio Zita KICK)
-8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com