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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreMISS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:56 · Mac Brown punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:59: Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK) — LSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:41: Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 65 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK) — LSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:02: Luke Logan 17 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +13.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:45: Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +10.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:48: Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 5 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK) — LSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 12:02LSU 4th & 6 at MISS 34, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 77.0% before the snapGo for it77.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call77.0%−<0.147% to makePunt76.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:06MISS 4th & 10 at LSU 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.0% before the snapGo for it23.9%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call24.0%85% to makePunt23.4%−0.6average punt
- Q1 4:52MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 26, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snapGo for it23.5%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.5%average punt
- Q2 14:47MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 20, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snapGo for it19.8%−0.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.3%average punt
- Q2 8:26MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 25, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snapGo for it12.3%−1.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.7%average punt
- Q2 5:57MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, down 25Close callPunted · 11.5% before the snapGo for it11.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 0:02MISS 4th & 1 at LSU 1, down 25Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 5.2% before the snapGo for it5.9%59% to convertField goalTheir call4.5%−1.494% to makePunt1.6%−4.3average punt
- Q3 9:56MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 38, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.3%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%average punt
- Q4 13:10MISS 4th & 12 at LSU 24, down 22Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.522% to convertField goalTheir call1.5%68% to makePunt-0.3%−1.8average punt
- Q4 8:45LSU 4th & 7 at MISS 8, up 19Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.0%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call98.1%90% to makePunt96.0%−2.1average punt
- Q4 6:56MISS 4th & 14 at MISS 21, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MISS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 5:59LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.5%97% to makeGo for two76.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:57LSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.9%97% to makeGo for two78.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:59LSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.6%97% to makeGo for two87.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:41LSU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.0%97% to makeGo for two92.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:45MISS Touchdown, down 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.3%97% to makeGo for two7.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:48LSU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:56LSU Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMISSDrive 1INT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:1126% → 26%
Q1 14:49
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
74.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass intercepted Grant Delpit return for no gain to the LSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2MISSED FG7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4074% → 74%
Q1 13:33
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+9
74.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 9 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+6
74.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Nick Brossette for 6 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
74.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Dee Anderson, broken up by Jalen JuliusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FG10 plays · 52 yds · 2:4726% → 27%
LSUDrive 4TD8 plays · 81 yds · 2:4872% → 74%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
72.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Foster Moreau for 9 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
72.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 17 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
72.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 19 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
74.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 21 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5027% → 26%
LSUDrive 6TD10 plays · 71 yds · 3:4673% → 77%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
73.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 23 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
73.9%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Dillon, Derrick, PENALTY OLEMISS roughing passer (Ruggs, Kevontae') 6 yards to the OLEMISS4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0524% → 23%
Q1 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
77.0%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Grant Delpit for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD16 plays · 83 yds · 5:3577% → 87%
Q2 13:29
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+6
77.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 6 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
78.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 1 yd to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+8
77.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 8 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+5
79.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Benito Jones) to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
80.9%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Sullivan, Stephen, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Jones, Jacquez) 15 yards to the OLEMISS19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+15
81.0%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Anderson, Dee, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Julius, Jalen) 15 yards to the OLEMISS4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2515% → 14%
Q2 8:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.8%
Mac Brown punt for 49 yds , Jontre Kirklin returns for 5 yds to the LSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD2 plays · 69 yds · 0:3687% → 91%
MISSDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3714% → 14%
LSUDrive 12FUMBLE10 plays · 63 yds · 3:1493% → 95%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
93.3%
Stephen Sullivan run for 11 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
93.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 19 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
94.2%
Edwards-Helaire, Clyde rush for 1 yard to the OLEMISS33, PENALTY LSU holding (Deculus, Austin) 10 yards to the OLEMISS44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+14
94.3%
Burrow, Joe pass sacked for loss of 14 yards to the LSU45 (Donelly, Ross), fumble forced by Donelly, Ross, fumble by Burrow, Joe recovered by OLEMISS Wiley, Charles at LSU45, PENALTY OLEMISS face mask (Donelly, Ross) 14 yards to the OLEMISS27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+8
94.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 8 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
94.9%
Joe Burrow run for 7 yds to the Miss 9 Joe Burrow fumbled, forced by Mohamed Sanogo, recovered by Miss C.J. MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13FG17 plays · 90 yds · 2:2511% → 10%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+22
89.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 22 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
87.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 6 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+15
87.9%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Greedy Williams) to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
84.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 5 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+9
83.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 9 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
83.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 10 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-15
82.4%
Ta'amu, Jordan pass incomplete to Metcalf, D.K., PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Metcalf, D.K.) 15 yards to the LSU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 25
OPP 39
+35
90.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 35 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
83.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. Metcalf, broken up by Greedy WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15FUMBLE11 plays · 62 yds · 3:2495% → 96%
Q3 14:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
94.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen Sullivan, broken up by Myles HartsfieldSimilar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
94.5%
Von Rosenberg, Zach punt 47 yards to the OLEMISS22, downed, PENALTY OLEMISS roughing the kicker (Knight, Tylan) 15 yards to the LSU46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+31
95.6%
Justin Jefferson run for 19 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Kevontae' Ruggs) to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-4
95.8%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 13 Nick Brossette fumbled, forced by Qaadir Sheppard, recovered by Miss Zedrick WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 1:295% → 5%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
94.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Elijah Moore for 2 yds to the Miss 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5296% → 96%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
96.3%
Brossette, Nick rush for 2 yards to the LSU22, PENALTY LSU holding (Magee, Adrian) 10 yards to the LSU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 24
OWN 6
0
96.5%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Foster Moreau, broken up by Willie HibblerSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 24
OWN 6
+12
96.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Lanard Fournette for 12 yds to the LSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD15 plays · 59 yds · 4:235% → 14%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
95.1%
Ta'amu, Jordan pass incomplete, PENALTY OLEMISS holding 10 yards to the OLEMISS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+9
95.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 9 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
95.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 6 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
95.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 9 yds to the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD6 plays · 67 yds · 1:3693% → 99%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
92.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 5 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+52
93.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 52 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
93.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 1 yd to the Miss 5Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 5 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20FG12 plays · 51 yds · 3:302% → 5%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
97.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 4 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
98.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 10 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+16
98.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Elijah Moore for 16 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21FG11 plays · 67 yds · 4:1598% → 99%
MISSDrive 22PUNT7 plays · -4 yds · 1:441% → 1%
Q4 7:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
99.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 4 yds to the Miss 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23TD6 plays · 64 yds · 3:5299% → 100%
Q4 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+14
99.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24END OF GAME6 plays · 15 yds · 2:240% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:02
Luke Logan 17 yd FG GOOD
+13.4
TD · Q3 3:45
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 8:59
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)
+5.8