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MISS

Ole Miss 16 at LSU 45

LSU
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:02 · Cole Tracy 53 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Home team on offense+0.2Pregame prior+23.2Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:59: Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK) — LSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:41: Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 65 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK) — LSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:02: Luke Logan 17 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +13.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:45: Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +10.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:48: Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 5 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK) — LSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:02LSU 4th & 6 at MISS 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:06MISS 4th & 10 at LSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:52MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:47MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:26MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:57MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, down 25
    Close callPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:02MISS 4th & 1 at LSU 1, down 25
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.5%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:56MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 38, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:10MISS 4th & 12 at LSU 24, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:45LSU 4th & 7 at MISS 8, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−2.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:56MISS 4th & 14 at MISS 21, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MISS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:59LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:57LSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:59LSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:41LSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:45MISS Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:48LSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:56LSU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:1126% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
74.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
74.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q1 14:49
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
74.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass intercepted Grant Delpit return for no gain to the LSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2MISSED FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4074% → 74%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
74.3%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+2
74.2%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+9
74.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 9 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
74.1%
Chris Curry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+6
74.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Nick Brossette for 6 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
74.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Dee Anderson, broken up by Jalen JuliusSimilar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+53
73.9%
Cole Tracy 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:4726% → 27%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
73.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 24 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
73.2%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 43Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+3
73.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 3 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 9
OPP 40
-5
72.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Javon Patterson) to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+19
73.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 19 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
72.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 13 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
72.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
72.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
72.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 9:06
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
72.6%
Luke Logan 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:4872% → 74%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
72.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Foster Moreau for 9 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+3
72.6%
Chris Curry run for 3 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
72.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 17 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
72.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 19 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
72.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 5
OPP 28
+7
72.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 7 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
74.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 21 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5027% → 26%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
73.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
73.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
73.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
73.9%
Mac Brown punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:4673% → 77%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
73.3%
Lanard Fournette run for 7 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+5
73.7%
Lanard Fournette run for 5 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
73.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 23 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
74.0%
Lanard Fournette run for 1 yd to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
74.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Lanard FournetteSimilar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+15
73.5%
Joe Burrow run for 15 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
73.9%
Joe Burrow run for 8 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+2
73.9%
Tory Carter run for 2 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
73.9%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Dillon, Derrick, PENALTY OLEMISS roughing passer (Ruggs, Kevontae') 6 yards to the OLEMISS4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.1%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0524% → 23%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete, broken up by Grant DelpitSimilar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
77.0%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Grant Delpit for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
77.5%
Mac Brown punt for 63 yds, downed at the LSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
16 plays · 83 yds · 5:3577% → 87%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
76.8%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+6
76.9%
Joe Burrow run for 6 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+6
77.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 6 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
78.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 1 yd to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
78.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Dee AndersonSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+8
77.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 8 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+5
79.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Benito Jones) to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
80.1%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+1
80.4%
Chris Curry run for 1 yd to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+14
80.3%
Joe Burrow run for 14 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
80.9%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Sullivan, Stephen, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Jones, Jacquez) 15 yards to the OLEMISS19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
81.0%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the Miss 19Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+15
81.0%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Anderson, Dee, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Julius, Jalen) 15 yards to the OLEMISS4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
81.1%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the Miss 3Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2515% → 14%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
85.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
85.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.8%
Mac Brown punt for 49 yds , Jontre Kirklin returns for 5 yds to the LSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:3687% → 91%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
87.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+65
90.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 65 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3714% → 14%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.7%
Scottie Phillips run for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
84.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 3 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
85.0%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
86.4%
Mac Brown punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12FUMBLE
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:1493% → 95%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
93.3%
Stephen Sullivan run for 11 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
93.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 19 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
94.2%
Edwards-Helaire, Clyde rush for 1 yard to the OLEMISS33, PENALTY LSU holding (Deculus, Austin) 10 yards to the OLEMISS44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 20
OPP 44
0
94.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+8
94.3%
Joe Burrow run for 8 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 12
OPP 36
-5
94.3%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 41Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+14
94.3%
Burrow, Joe pass sacked for loss of 14 yards to the LSU45 (Donelly, Ross), fumble forced by Donelly, Ross, fumble by Burrow, Joe recovered by OLEMISS Wiley, Charles at LSU45, PENALTY OLEMISS face mask (Donelly, Ross) 14 yards to the OLEMISS27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
94.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+8
94.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 8 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
94.9%
Joe Burrow run for 7 yds to the Miss 9 Joe Burrow fumbled, forced by Mohamed Sanogo, recovered by Miss C.J. MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13FG
17 plays · 90 yds · 2:2511% → 10%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+22
89.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 22 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
87.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 6 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
87.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
88.1%
Jordan Ta'amu run for no gain to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+15
87.9%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Greedy Williams) to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
84.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 5 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+9
83.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 9 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
83.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 10 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-15
82.4%
Ta'amu, Jordan pass incomplete to Metcalf, D.K., PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Metcalf, D.K.) 15 yards to the LSU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 25
OPP 39
+35
90.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 35 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
83.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. Metcalf, broken up by Greedy WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
85.3%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 3 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Octavious CooleySimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+17
90.3%
Luke Logan 17 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15FUMBLE
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:2495% → 96%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.5%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.5%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
94.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen Sullivan, broken up by Myles HartsfieldSimilar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
94.5%
Von Rosenberg, Zach punt 47 yards to the OLEMISS22, downed, PENALTY OLEMISS roughing the kicker (Knight, Tylan) 15 yards to the LSU46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
95.0%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
95.3%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
95.3%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+31
95.6%
Justin Jefferson run for 19 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Kevontae' Ruggs) to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
95.7%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-4
95.8%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 13 Nick Brossette fumbled, forced by Qaadir Sheppard, recovered by Miss Zedrick WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:295% → 5%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
94.7%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Miss 14Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+20
95.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 20 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
94.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Elijah Moore for 2 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
95.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
94.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
94.9%
Mac Brown punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5296% → 96%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
96.3%
Brossette, Nick rush for 2 yards to the LSU22, PENALTY LSU holding (Magee, Adrian) 10 yards to the LSU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 20
OWN 10
-4
96.5%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 6Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 24
OWN 6
0
96.5%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Foster Moreau, broken up by Willie HibblerSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 24
OWN 6
+12
96.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Lanard Fournette for 12 yds to the LSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD
15 plays · 59 yds · 4:235% → 14%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
95.1%
Ta'amu, Jordan pass incomplete, PENALTY OLEMISS holding 10 yards to the OLEMISS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+5
95.5%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 5 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+9
95.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 9 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+11
95.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 11 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
95.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 5 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
95.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 6 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
95.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
95.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 9 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+4
95.7%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
95.5%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-5
95.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 23Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+11
95.8%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 11 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+9
96.1%
Isaiah Woullard run for 9 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.3%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) to the LSU 1Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:3693% → 99%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
92.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 5 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+52
93.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 52 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
93.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the Miss 6Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
93.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 1 yd to the Miss 5Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 5 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:302% → 5%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.7%
Scottie Phillips run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
97.6%
Armani Linton run for 7 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
97.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 4 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
98.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 10 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+16
98.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Elijah Moore for 16 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
97.8%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 11 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
97.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+1
98.1%
Isaiah Woullard run for 1 yd to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
98.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+40
95.3%
Luke Logan 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:1598% → 99%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
97.5%
Nick Brossette run for 14 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
97.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 23 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
97.9%
Nick Brossette run for 7 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+5
97.9%
Joe Burrow run for 5 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
97.9%
Nick Brossette run for 7 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+8
98.0%
Nick Brossette run for 8 yds to the Miss 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
98.0%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the Miss 8Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+2
98.1%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the Miss 6Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 5
OPP 6
-2
98.1%
Joe Burrow sacked by Willie Hibbler for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 8Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
99.2%
Cole Tracy 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 1:441% → 1%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.9%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
98.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
99.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 4 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
99.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Javon Patterson) to the Miss 26Similar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-5
99.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Mohamed Sanogo) to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
99.2%
Mac Brown punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 3:5299% → 100%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 37Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-1
99.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+14
99.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
50
+9
99.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+6
99.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.9%
Joe Burrow run for 35 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:240% → 0%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
99.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 12 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
100.0%
Jordan Ta'amu run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Isaiah Woullard run for no gain to the Miss 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:02
Luke Logan 17 yd FG GOOD
+13.4
TD · Q3 3:45
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 8:59
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)
+5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com