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USM

Southern Miss 13 at Auburn 24

AUB
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:22 · Jack Abraham pass complete to Picasso Nelson Jr. for 15 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:43: Anthony Schwartz run for 6 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 7:20: Parker Shaunfield 51 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +1.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:39: Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 2 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +3.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:47: Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 12 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +7.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:40: Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 47 — USM win probability +4.8 pts (now 12%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 10USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 10:28USM 4th & 4 at AUB 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:13USM 4th & 5 at USM 37, tied
    Close callWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:28AUB 4th & 17 at USM 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:19USM 4th & 5 at USM 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:56AUB 4th & 17 at AUB 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:51USM 4th & 2 at AUB 27, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.0%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:43USM 4th & 7 at USM 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:27AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:15USM 4th & 9 at AUB 41, down 11
    Close callPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:19AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 47, up 11
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00AUB 4th & 7 at USM 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:20USM 4th & 26 at AUB 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:32USM 4th & 24 at USM 5, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:59AUB 4th & 18 at USM 35, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:47AUB 4th & 20 at AUB 15, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−4.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:39USM 4th & 10 at USM 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:09AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 33, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:34USM 4th & 12 at USM 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:00AUB 4th & 1 at USM 6, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    69% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%−1.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−3.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:22USM 4th & 13 at USM 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 3:39AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:43AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:39AUB Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:47USM Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 4:324% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
96.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+12
96.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 12 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
96.0%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+15
96.0%
Tez Parks rush around left end for 1 yard to the USM35 (Da. Williams;Jeremiah Dinson), PENALTY AU personal foul (Derrick Brown) 15 yards to the USM49, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
96.0%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
96.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for no gain to the SoMis 49Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+6
95.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 6 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
95.1%
Zac Everett punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
95.1%
Anthony Schwartz run for 2 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
95.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
95.0%
Arryn Siposs punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
94.8%
Tez Parks run for 1 yd to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+2
94.8%
Tez Parks run for 2 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+2
94.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 2 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 5
OWN 37
-4
94.9%
Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 33 Team fumbled, recovered by Aub Jordyn PetersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
94.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
94.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete AUBURN Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-10
94.6%
Jarrett Stidham rush around left end for 4 yards to the USM26 (Dq Thomas), PENALTY AU holding (P. Wanogho) 10 yards to the USM40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 17
OPP 40
-5
94.4%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 22
OPP 45
+5
94.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to JaTarvious Whitlow for 5 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 17
OPP 40
0
94.3%
Arryn Siposs punt for 37 yds, downed at the SoMis 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
93.8%
Steven Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 2Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 11
OWN 2
0
93.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Daniel ThomasSimilar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 11
OWN 2
+6
93.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 6 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 5
OWN 8
0
94.0%
Zac Everett punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:3994% → 95%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
93.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+46
94.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Seth Williams for 46 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.4%
AUBURN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
94.2%
De'Michael Harris run for 1 yd to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-9
94.2%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Jeremiah Dinson return for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-3
94.3%
Shaun Shivers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 8Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+9
94.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 9 yds to the Aub 17Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 4
OWN 17
-9
94.2%
J. Whitlow rush up the middle for 8 yards to the AU25 (Sherrod Ruff;Picasso Nelson), PENALTY AU holding (Mike Horton) 9 yards to the AU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 13
OWN 8
-4
94.2%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the Aub 4Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 17
OWN 4
0
94.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to JaTarvious WhitlowSimilar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 17
OWN 4
0
94.1%
Arryn Siposs punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:477% → 8%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
93.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 3 yds to the SoMis 44 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Tim Jones) to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 17
OWN 46
-1
93.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 45
+20
93.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 20 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
93.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 1 yd to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+7
93.2%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 7 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
0
93.3%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jaylond Adams, broken up by Javaris DavisSimilar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+44
92.1%
Parker Shaunfield 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 6:0792% → 94%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
92.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+7
92.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 7 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
92.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 15 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
92.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Seth Williams, broken up by Picasso Nelson Jr.Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
92.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Asa Martin for 3 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+15
92.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to JaTarvious Whitlow for 15 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
92.8%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-3
92.8%
Kam Martin run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-5
92.6%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (Marquel Harrell) to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+17
92.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kam Martin for 17 yds to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
92.8%
Kam Martin run for 9 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 1
OPP 8
0
92.8%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the SoMis 8Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
92.6%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
93.9%
Anthony Schwartz run for 6 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.5%
Kwadra Griggs run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
93.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for no gain to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
93.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 1 yd to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
93.8%
Zac Everett punt for 57 yds , Ryan Davis returns for no gain to the Aub 9 Ryan Davis fumbled, recovered by Aub Ryan DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
93.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Seth Williams for 14 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
93.2%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
93.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to John Shenker, broken up by Xavier MarionSimilar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
92.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
92.7%
Arryn Siposs punt for 45 yds, downed at the SoMis 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
93.3%
Jack Abraham run for 4 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+24
93.3%
De'Michael Harris run for 24 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
92.9%
Jack Abraham run for 1 yd to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
92.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jaylond Adams, broken up by Noah IgbinogheneSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
93.1%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
93.5%
Zac Everett punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ryan Davis at the Aub 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 0:1793% → 94%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
93.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Sal CannellaSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+4
93.3%
Kam Martin run for 4 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+3
93.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 3 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 3
OWN 18
+5
93.4%
Arryn Siposs punt 46 yards to the USM36, fair catch by Quez Watkins, PENALTY USM roughing the kicker 5 yards to the AU23, 1ST DOWN AU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
93.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 19 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
94.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Malik MillerSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
94.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Sal Cannella for 5 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
94.0%
Jarrett Stidham run for no gain to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
93.7%
Arryn Siposs punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
94.1%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 17 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jaylond AdamsSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
94.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Jay'Shawn Washington) to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 15
OWN 32
0
94.1%
Trivenskey Mosley run for no gain to the SoMis 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Chandler CoxSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.9%
Kam Martin run for 8 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
92.9%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.0%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
93.0%
Jarrett Stidham across the middle pass complete to Seth Williams for 18 yards to the USM47 (P. Schrimsher), PENALTY AU holding (Kam Martin) 10 yards to the AU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 25
0
92.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+30
92.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Malik Miller for 30 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
93.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 3 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
93.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
93.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
92.8%
Arryn Siposs punt for 39 yds, downed at the SoMis 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 4:158% → 10%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+28
92.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 28 yds Jaylond Adams fumbled, recovered by SoMis Jaylond Adams for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
92.0%
Jack Abraham run for 1 yd to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+9
92.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 9 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
91.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tez Parks for 7 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+21
91.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 21 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
90.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
90.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tez Parks for 13 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
90.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jay'Shawn WashingtonSimilar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-5
90.9%
Jack Abraham right screen pass complete to Tim Jones for loss of 1 yard to the AU19 (Daniel Thomas), PENALTY USM illegal formation 5 yards to the AU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 15
OPP 23
-9
91.1%
Jack Abraham sacked by Derrick Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 24
OPP 32
-2
92.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 26
OPP 34
+51
90.3%
Parker Shaunfield 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:4191% → 96%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
90.7%
Kam Martin run for 6 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+53
91.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 53 yds to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
91.9%
Shaun Shivers run for 4 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+6
91.9%
Jarrett Stidham left endzone pass incomplete to Darius Slayton, PENALTY USM pass interference (R. Mitchell) 6 yards to the USM2, 1ST DOWN AU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 2 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
94.5%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 1 yd to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-10
94.6%
Jack Abraham right sideline pass complete to Tim Jones for 32 yards to the AU48, out-of-bounds (Jamien Sherwood), PENALTY USM pass interference (Quez Watkins) 10 yards to the USM10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 19
OWN 10
-5
94.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 5Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 24
OWN 5
0
95.0%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Jamel DeanSimilar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 24
OWN 5
+9
95.1%
Zac Everett punt for 43 yds , Ryan Davis returns for 9 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:4397% → 96%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
96.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+3
96.6%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
96.6%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (Mike Horton) to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+7
96.5%
Kam Martin run for 7 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
96.6%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-10
96.5%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Sherrod Ruff for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 0:59
4TH & 18
OPP 35
+53
95.9%
Anders Carlson 53 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Demarrio SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:125% → 13%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
95.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 3 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
94.9%
Jack Abraham run for 1 yd to the SoMis 39Similar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+24
94.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 24 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
94.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for 21 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
94.0%
Tez Parks run for 4 yds to the Aub 12Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+12
86.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 12 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0092% → 90%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.6%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
91.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Shaun Shivers for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 22Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-7
90.8%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Jacques Turner for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 15Similar
Q4 13:47
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+11
90.3%
Arryn Siposs punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 48 , Quez Watkins returns for 11 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 10%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
88.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 1 yd to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-1
88.1%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
89.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
90.4%
Zac Everett punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Davis at the Aub 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
91.3%
Kam Martin run for 13 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
91.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Sal Cannella for 4 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
91.5%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
91.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
90.5%
Arryn Siposs punt for 42 yds, downed at the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0010% → 8%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.5%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
90.6%
Tim Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
91.3%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Trivenskey MosleySimilar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
91.7%
Zac Everett punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Davis at the Aub 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
93.0%
Kam Martin run for 8 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+4
93.0%
Kam Martin run for 4 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
93.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Sal Cannella for 7 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 3
OPP 40
-9
93.1%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Jacques Turner for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 49 Jarrett Stidham fumbled, recovered by SoMis Paxton Schrimsher , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27INT
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0012% → 9%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
88.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 12
OWN 47
-5
89.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Drake Dorbeck) to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+23
90.9%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Christian Tutt return for 23 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 28FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4495% → 97%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
95.0%
Kam Martin run for 4 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
95.0%
Kam Martin run for 6 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
95.0%
Kam Martin run for 4 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-2
95.0%
Kam Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+7
96.6%
Kam Martin run for 7 yds to the SoMis 6Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+23
97.1%
Anders Carlson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 29END OF GAME
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:314% → 3%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
96.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for no gain to the SoMis 14Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
96.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for no gain to the SoMis 14Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 10
OWN 14
-3
96.6%
Jack Abraham sacked by Nick Coe and Marlon Davidson for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 11Similar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 13
OWN 11
+22
97.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Picasso Nelson Jr. for 22 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
96.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Picasso Nelson Jr. for 15 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:47
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 12 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-7.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:40
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 47
-4.8
TD · Q3 5:39
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 2 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com