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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreUL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:40 · Rhys Byrns punt for 42 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for no gain to the Alab 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:28: Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 0 of 2UL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 10:20UL 4th & 4 at UL 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 8:02UL 4th & 11 at UL 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q1 4:09UL 4th & 14 at UL 36, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 0:53UL 4th & 9 at UL 41, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 11:40UL 4th & 5 at UL 28, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 5:06UL 4th & 5 at UL 30, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 0:00UL 4th & 14 at UL 47, down 49Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call-0.0%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
- Q3 6:00ALA 4th & 3 at UL 6, up 49Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%46% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−0.191% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 2:03UL 4th & 8 at UL 48, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 10:04ALA 4th & 3 at UL 13, up 49Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%50% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−<0.185% to makePunt99.5%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:25ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:25ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:28ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:52ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:26ALA Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:28ALA Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:30ALA Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:37UL Touchdown, down 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:58UL Touchdown, down 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartALADrive 1TD9 plays · 72 yds · 3:22100% → 100%
Q1 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
99.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Damien Harris for 6 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+34
99.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 34 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+9
99.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 9 yds to the LaLaf 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:500% → 1%
ALADrive 3TD3 plays · 14 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q1 9:25
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
99.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 13 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · -1 yds · 1:161% → 0%
ULDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 3:470% → 1%
Q1 6:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
99.5%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jalen Williams for 8 yds Jalen Williams fumbled, forced by Trevon Diggs, recovered by LaLaf Ja'Marcus Bradley for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-10
99.5%
Andre Nunez sacked by Dylan Moses and Xavier McKinney for a loss of 10 yards to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 19
OWN 31
+5
99.5%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 5 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD5 plays · 69 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
99.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (Corey Turner) to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
99.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 24 yds to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus Bradley, broken up by Patrick Surtain IISimilar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
99.7%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ryheem Malone, broken up by Shyheim CarterSimilar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 4
OWN 46
-5
99.7%
Byrns, Rhys punt 39 yards to the ALABAMA15, fair catch by Waddle, Jaylen, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE illegal formation (Carter, Kaleb) 5 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
99.7%
Rhys Byrns punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD5 plays · 80 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
ULDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
99.8%
Ragas, Trey rush for 3 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE26, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE illegal formation 5 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+8
99.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 8 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Rhys Byrns punt for 42 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for no gain to the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD10 plays · 70 yds · 4:25100% → 100%
ULDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q2 5:51
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+7
99.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 7 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD7 plays · 62 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 9 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+13
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 13 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 20 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13INT7 plays · 22 yds · 1:190% → 0%
ULDrive 14INT8 plays · 28 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q3 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-7
99.9%
Andre Nunez pass intercepted Xavier McKinney return for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15MISSED FG12 plays · 70 yds · 5:48100% → 100%
ULDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 3:490% → 0%
Q3 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+13
99.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 13 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Keenan Barnes for no gain to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Rhys Byrns punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD2 plays · 89 yds · 0:27100% → 100%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
99.9%
Robinson Jr., Brian rush for 11 yards to the ALABAMA22, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Forristall, Miller) 5 yards to the ALABAMA6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+94
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 94 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18TD7 plays · 78 yds · 2:390% → 0%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+23
100.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 23 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19MISSED FG8 plays · 37 yds · 3:16100% → 100%
Q4 12:16
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+11
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20TD11 plays · 80 yds · 5:540% → 0%
ALADrive 21Uncategorized8 plays · 50 yds · 3:41100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:28
Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+0.1