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Louisiana Tech 21 at LSU 38

LSU
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:59 · Davan Dyer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior+13.8Home team on offense+10.7Score differential+3.8Garbage-time factor+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Time remaining+1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:22: Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 28 yds for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK) — LSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:23: J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 20 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK) — LT win probability +3.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:10: J'Mar Smith pass complete to Bobby Holly for 1 yd for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK) — LT win probability +6.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:54: J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 42 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK) — LT win probability +18.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 8:06: Nick Brossette run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK) — LSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:30LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:43LT 4th & 10 at LSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:16LT 4th & 11 at LSU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:06LSU 4th & 8 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:34LT 4th & 7 at LT 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:17LSU 4th & 4 at LT 6, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.2%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:22LSU 4th & 20 at LSU 43, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:20LT 4th & 3 at LT 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00LT 4th & 6 at LSU 32, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.1%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:10LT 4th & 1 at LSU 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−6.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:10LSU 4th & 7 at LT 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:59LT 4th & 8 at LSU 39, down 10
    Close callPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−0.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:59LSU 4th & 15 at LSU 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:03LT 4th & 1 at LT 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.6%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:01LT 4th & 15 at LT 31, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5LT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:20LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:57LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:22LSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:23LT Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:10LT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:54LT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:06LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:23LSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2087% → 87%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
87.4%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
87.4%
Nick Brossette run for 7 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+2
87.3%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
87.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 33 yds · 0:2713% → 13%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+33
86.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 33 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
86.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
86.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
86.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 10
OPP 47
+25
86.8%
Brady Farlow punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 7 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (L'Jarius Sneed) to the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:1087% → 87%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
86.8%
Nick Brossette run for 17 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
86.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Foster Moreau for 9 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+4
86.8%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
86.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
86.7%
Nick Brossette run for 9 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+6
86.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
86.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+5
86.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
86.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LaTch 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
86.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 21 yds to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.2%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:4413% → 13%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
86.6%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 3 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+9
86.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jaqwis Dancy for 9 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
86.3%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Rhashid BonnetteSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
86.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
86.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Alfred SmithSimilar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
86.7%
Brady Farlow punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:5487% → 86%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
86.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+8
86.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 8 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
86.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 9 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 1
OWN 31
0
86.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+6
86.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
86.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+6
86.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
86.6%
Edwards-Helaire, Clyde rush for 2 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY LSU illegal block 15 yards to the LSU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 25
OWN 33
+9
86.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 9 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+8
86.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 8
50
0
86.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 8
50
0
85.6%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 47 yds, downed at the LaTch 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:3014% → 15%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+13
85.7%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 13 yds to the LaTch 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
85.5%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 3 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4886% → 89%
Q1 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
86.3%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the LaTch 1Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.3%
Joe Burrow run for no gain to the LaTch 1Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.0%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:1112% → 12%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.9%
Israel Tucker run for 6 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
87.8%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
87.9%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
88.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Alfred SmithSimilar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
88.2%
Davan Dyer punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:5589% → 92%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
88.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
88.9%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+19
88.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 19 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
89.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 14 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+27
89.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 27 yds to the LaTch 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
89.6%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the LaTch 8Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-3
89.6%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 11Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+5
89.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 5 yds to the LaTch 6Similar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
91.6%
Cole Tracy 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:419% → 9%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Israel Tucker for 5 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
90.6%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (O'Shea Dugas) to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
90.9%
J'Mar Smith pass intercepted Ed Paris return for no gain to the LaTch 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11TD
1 play · 28 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
95.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 28 yds for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:356% → 10%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.9%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 2 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
94.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+33
94.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Javonte Woodard for 33 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
93.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
93.9%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 9 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
93.7%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 2 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
93.6%
Kam McKnight run for 5 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+5
93.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 5 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
93.8%
Jaqwis Dancy run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 11
OPP 20
0
94.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+20
90.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 20 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:3892% → 92%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
92.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Foster Moreau for 12 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
92.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 16 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
92.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-10
92.6%
Curry, Chris rush for 7 yards to the LATECH40, PENALTY LSU holding (Traore, Badara) 10 yards to the LSU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 20
OWN 43
0
92.5%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Dee AndersonSimilar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 20
OWN 43
0
92.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 20
OWN 43
0
91.7%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:459% → 9%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
91.5%
Israel Tucker run for 5 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+4
91.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 4 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 1
OWN 21
-2
91.4%
Israel Tucker run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 19Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
91.3%
Davan Dyer punt for 35 yds, downed at the LSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:3492% → 92%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
92.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 3 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
92.5%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Dee AndersonSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-13
92.2%
Joe Burrow sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 13 yards to the LSU 36 Joe Burrow fumbled, forced by Jaylon Ferguson, recovered by LaTch Keonatye Garner , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:3011% → 10%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
89.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-10
89.2%
Smith, J'Mar pass incomplete, PENALTY LATECH holding (Dugas, O'Shea) 10 yards to the LSU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 20
OPP 46
+2
90.4%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 18
OPP 44
+12
91.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jaqwis Dancy for 12 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+50
90.4%
Bailey Hale 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:308% → 14%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.9%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
91.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 15 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
91.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
91.7%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+8
92.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 8 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+30
91.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 30 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
91.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 7 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+1
91.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 1 yd to the LSU 8Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+4
91.6%
Israel Tucker run for 4 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
91.1%
Israel Tucker run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 5Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
91.2%
Kam McKnight run for 3 yds to the LSU 2Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
91.9%
Kam McKnight run for 1 yd to the LSU 1Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Bobby Holly for 1 yd for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:4087% → 87%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
86.8%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+11
86.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Foster Moreau for 11 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
87.5%
Nick Brossette run for 13 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
87.9%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
88.3%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
87.6%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
86.9%
Josh Growden punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:0513% → 13%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
86.6%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
86.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Alfred SmithSimilar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+11
87.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 11 yds to the LaTch 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
86.3%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+15
86.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Israel Tucker for 15 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
85.7%
Kam McKnight run for 17 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
85.0%
Smith, J'Mar pass incomplete, PENALTY LATECH illegal formation 5 yards to the LSU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 15
OPP 46
0
85.6%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Rhashid BonnetteSimilar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+7
85.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 7 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
85.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
86.6%
Davan Dyer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4187% → 87%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
87.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 9Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
87.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+9
86.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 9 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
88.1%
Joe Burrow run for 11 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
88.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
88.1%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 15
OWN 29
0
87.2%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:59
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
86.7%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:5513% → 31%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
86.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
88.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 8 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+4
87.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 4 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
87.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 3 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
86.7%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+13
87.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 13 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
69.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 42 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:2477% → 92%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
76.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Foster Moreau for 1 yd to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+28
76.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 28 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
79.9%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+6
79.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 6 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+5
79.3%
Nick Brossette run for 5 yds to the LaTch 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
80.4%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+6
80.4%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the LaTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
80.4%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
80.4%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Dee AndersonSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+13
79.0%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete, PENALTY LATECH pass interference 13 yards to the LATECH2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q4 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
80.4%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the LaTch 1Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
80.3%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 2Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.9%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:479% → 9%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
90.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 12 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
90.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
90.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+9
92.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 9 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q4 7:03
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
91.0%
J'Mar Smith run for no gain to the LaTch 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 4:2293% → 98%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
92.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
93.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
92.8%
Tory Carter run for 2 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
93.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 16 yds to the LaTch 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
93.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 14 yds to the LaTch 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
94.5%
Joe Burrow run for 4 yds to the LaTch 1Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.6%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) to the LaTch 1Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:152% → 2%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
J'Mar Smith run for no gain to the LaTch 25Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.2%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Devin White for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 23Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
98.3%
J'Mar Smith run for 13 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
98.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-5
98.2%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Michael Divinity Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 31Similar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+12
98.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 12 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:54
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 42 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)
-18
TD · Q4 8:06
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK)
+11.6
TD · Q3 9:10
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Bobby Holly for 1 yd for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)
-6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com