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MSST

Mississippi State 7 at Kentucky 28

UK
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:59 · Miles Butler 36 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior−25.4Home team on offense+0.9Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:50: Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK) — UK win probability +12.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:03: Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Miles Butler KICK) — UK win probability +18.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:54: Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 20 — UK win probability +8.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:34: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 4 yds to the Kent 45 — MSST win probability +8.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:00: Benny Snell Jr. run for 36 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK) — UK win probability +15.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:48UK 4th & 8 at MSST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:59UK 4th & 2 at MSST 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.4%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:35UK 4th & 19 at UK 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−2.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:24MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:24UK 4th & 11 at UK 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:15MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:38MSST 4th & 14 at MSST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−3.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:16MSST 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.7 ptsPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:43UK 4th & 16 at UK 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−6.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:39MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:45UK 4th & 2 at MSST 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:10MSST 4th & 15 at MSST 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 8:42MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:50UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:03UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:00UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:45UK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5320% → 21%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
20.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+7
20.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
20.7%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
20.8%
Terry Wilson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
21.1%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
21.0%
Max Duffy punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0479% → 78%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-8
21.2%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 21 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-9 Yards) to the MisSt 12Similar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 18
OWN 12
+4
21.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
21.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
21.9%
Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, downed at the Kent 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0922% → 23%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
22.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 22 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
22.5%
Terry Wilson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-13
23.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27 KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 18
OPP 42
-8
23.0%
Terry Wilson sacked by Erroll Thompson for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 26
50
0
23.0%
Max Duffy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1877% → 76%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
23.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 14 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
23.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+3
23.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Austin Williams for 3 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 12
OWN 22
0
23.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 12
OWN 22
0
24.0%
Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, fair catch by David Bouvier at the Kent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 5:0324% → 27%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
24.2%
Terry Wilson run for no gain to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
24.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+15
24.5%
Wilson, Terry pass incomplete, PENALTY MISSSTATE roughing passer 15 yards to the MISSSTATE45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
25.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 5 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
25.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+12
26.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
26.7%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 36Similar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+9
26.4%
Terry Wilson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 11
OPP 27
0
27.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+9
27.4%
Terry Wilson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+36
27.3%
Miles Butler 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
18 plays · 80 yds · 8:0774% → 78%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
26.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+15
27.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 15 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
26.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 12 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
26.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
25.9%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+1
25.9%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
26.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
26.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 8 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+7
26.5%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
26.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-5
26.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 23Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-5
26.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Kent 28Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+2
27.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+24
28.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 24 yds to the Kent 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
27.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Kent 1Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:5024% → 22%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
23.5%
Asim Rose run for 5 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+14
23.1%
Asim Rose run for 14 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
23.6%
Asim Rose run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 36Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+6
23.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 6 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-14
24.1%
Terry Wilson sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 14 yards to the Kent 28Similar
Q2 5:35
4TH & 19
OWN 28
0
22.1%
Max Duffy punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0278% → 77%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
22.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
22.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
22.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
23.3%
Tucker Day punt for 21 yds, downed at the Kent 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3825% → 23%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
25.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
24.5%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
23.7%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:24
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
22.8%
Max Duffy punt for 46 yds , Keith Mixon returns for no gain to the MisSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0977% → 76%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
22.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 5Similar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 15
OWN 5
0
23.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+2
23.3%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 13
OWN 7
+9
23.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 9 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
23.6%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 36 yds, downed at the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:2526% → 40%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
25.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 5
OPP 47
-1
26.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+7
26.3%
Terry Wilson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
26.5%
Terry Wilson run for 12 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
27.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+23
27.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Dorian Baker for 23 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
40.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:4367% → 70%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
33.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 8 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+3
31.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
32.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 21 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
30.1%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jamar Watson for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 8 yds · 3:1366% → 61%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.1%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
33.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
35.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 7 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
35.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-5
35.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
37.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
38.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
39.0%
Tucker Day punt for 59 yds, downed at the Kent 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 5:1240% → 68%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
40.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 11 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
41.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 5 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+6
41.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 6 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
42.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 4 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+20
44.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 20 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
47.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+15
46.7%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+23
49.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 23 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
50.0%
Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
50.3%
Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:3439% → 37%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
60.8%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
59.1%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
61.6%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
61.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 6 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
60.3%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
61.3%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 1
50
0
63.4%
Tucker Day punt for 31 yds, downed at the Kent 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:1872% → 72%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
71.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
71.8%
Terry Wilson pass intercepted Brian Cole return for no gain to the Kent 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · -5 yds · 3:4236% → 24%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
63.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 4 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
64.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+8
65.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 8 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
65.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 12 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
63.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 29Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 14
OPP 29
-10
66.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Kent 39Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 24
OPP 39
-10
70.8%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Calvin Taylor Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the Kent 49Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 34
OPP 49
-5
73.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 39
OWN 46
0
74.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 39
OWN 46
0
76.1%
Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, fair catch by David Bouvier at the Kent 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 3:0278% → 79%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
78.0%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the Kent 7Similar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 17
OWN 7
-5
78.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 2Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 22
OWN 2
+15
78.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Kent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
79.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-1
80.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 19Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 8
OWN 19
-8
79.8%
Terry Wilson sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 11Similar
Q4 9:43
4TH & 16
OWN 11
+3
79.2%
Max Duffy punt for 43 yds , Keith Mixon returns for 3 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:2127% → 21%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
73.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-6
73.7%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+35
79.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Tyrell Ajian return for 35 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20TD
1 play · 36 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
95.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 36 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:187% → 6%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
93.4%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
93.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
93.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 6 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+1
94.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Austin Williams for 1 yd to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+2
94.2%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 2:4098% → 100%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
97.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+1
97.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+4
97.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+9
97.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 9 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 23 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:291% → 1%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
99.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 17Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 15
OWN 17
0
99.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 15
OWN 17
0
99.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 15
OWN 17
+29
99.4%
Tucker Day punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KENTUCKY 49 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24Uncategorized
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:42100% → 100%
Q4 2:42
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+1
99.8%
Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+5
99.8%
Asim Rose run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+15
99.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
99.8%
Asim Rose run for 7 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+13
99.8%
Asim Rose run for 13 yds to the MisSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 7Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.8%
TEAM run for no gain to the MisSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:03
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)
+18.1
TD · Q4 8:00
Benny Snell Jr. run for 36 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)
+15.9
TD · Q2 0:50
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)
+12.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com