Try the model
ARK

Arkansas 3 at Auburn 34

AUB
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:25 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:36: JaTarvious Whitlow 5 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +0.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:49: Jarrett Stidham run for 4 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +3.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:19: Connor Limpert 29 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +1.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:05: Connor Limpert kickoff for 61 yds , Noah Igbinoghene return for 96 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +3.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:18: JaTarvious Whitlow run for 15 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ARK made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 12:57ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:37ARK 4th & 12 at AUB 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:21AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:37ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:00AUB 4th & 3 at ARK 36, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:21AUB 4th & 1 at ARK 1, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:41ARK 4th & 18 at ARK 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:11AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 39, up 10
    Close callPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:59ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 40, down 10
    Close callPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:30AUB 4th & 1 at ARK 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−0.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:08ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:09AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:10ARK 4th & 2 at AUB 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−0.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:19ARK 4th & 8 at AUB 11, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:16ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 34, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:30AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 31, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:29ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 18, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:47AUB 4th & 19 at ARK 48, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:51ARK 4th & 23 at ARK 12, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:15AUB 4th & 20 at ARK 25, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:31ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 23, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:36AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:49AUB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:05AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:18AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:503% → 3%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
96.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 6 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
96.8%
Storey, Ty rush for 1 yard to the ARKANSAS34, PENALTY AUBURN offside (Russell, Dontavius) 5 yards to the ARKANSAS38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
96.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
96.6%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Devwah WhaleySimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
96.6%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+48
96.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 35 yds , Ryan Davis returns for 48 yds to the Ark 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2TD
11 plays · 27 yds · 2:1497% → 97%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
96.6%
Stidham, Jarrett pass incomplete to Slayton, Darius, PENALTY AUBURN ineligible downfield on pass (Driscoll, Jack) 5 yards to the ARKANSAS32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+5
96.6%
Stidham, Jarrett pass incomplete to Slayton, Darius, PENALTY ARKANSAS offside (Ramsey, Randy) 5 yards to the ARKANSAS27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
96.6%
Kam Martin run for 8 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 2
OPP 19
0
96.5%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the Ark 19Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+4
96.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
96.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+4
96.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+2
96.3%
Jarrett Stidham run for 2 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow 5 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)Similar
Q1 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
96.5%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3MISSED FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 3:434% → 4%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.3%
Chase Hayden run for 8 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
96.2%
Chase Hayden run for no gain to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
96.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 4 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
96.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 11 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
96.0%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Michael WoodsSimilar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
96.0%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Rakeem BoydSimilar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+32
96.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for 32 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
95.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Aub 19Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-5
95.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Aub 24Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 14
OPP 24
+2
95.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 12
OPP 22
0
95.8%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+40
95.8%
Connor Limpert 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0796% → 96%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
95.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 21Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+4
95.7%
Kam Martin run for 4 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
95.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Arryn Siposs punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Ark 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:384% → 5%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
95.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-5
95.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+7
95.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 7 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
95.4%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to La'Michael Pettway, broken up by Jamel DeanSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
95.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 22 yds, downed at the Aub 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6MISSED FG
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2696% → 95%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
95.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 12 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
95.6%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+5
95.5%
Anthony Schwartz run for 5 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
95.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to JaTarvious WhitlowSimilar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+54
95.1%
Anders Carlson 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+40
94.8%
Chase Hayden run for 4 yds to the Ark 2 Chase Hayden fumbled, forced by Noah Igbinoghene, recovered by Aub Daniel Thomas , return for 40 yds to the Ark 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1995% → 95%
Q1 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
95.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 4Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
95.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
95.1%
Jarrett Stidham run for 3 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q1 0:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
95.0%
Anders Carlson 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 3 yds · 3:345% → 5%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jordan Jones for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
94.9%
Storey, Ty rush for 14 yards to the ARKANSAS40, PENALTY ARKANSAS illegal formation (Wallace, Brian) 5 yards to the ARKANSAS21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+15
94.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jordan Jones for 15 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
94.6%
Chase Hayden run for 1 yd to the Ark 37 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jeremy Patton) to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 19
OWN 27
-5
94.7%
Chase Hayden run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 24
OWN 22
+6
94.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Chase Hayden for 6 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 18
OWN 28
0
94.6%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Chase HaydenSimilar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
94.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ryan Davis at the Aub 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1994% → 94%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
94.2%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Ryan Pulley for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 15
OWN 25
-1
94.1%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Dre Greenlaw for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 16
OWN 24
+15
93.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 15 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
94.0%
Arryn Siposs punt for 41 yds, downed at the Ark 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:576% → 6%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
94.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 7 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
93.8%
Ty Storey run for 7 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
93.8%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jeremy PattonSimilar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
93.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 6 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
93.6%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to La'Michael Pettway, broken up by Jamien SherwoodSimilar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
93.9%
Reid Bauer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Davis at the Aub 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:2194% → 93%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
93.7%
Kam Martin run for 5 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
93.7%
Jarrett Stidham run for 3 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+4
93.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
93.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 5 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+42
93.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 42 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
93.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+7
94.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
93.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 2 yds to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 1
OPP 8
-1
93.2%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:137% → 7%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
93.2%
Ty Storey run for 1 yd to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+2
93.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 2 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 7
OWN 12
0
93.3%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q2 3:08
4TH & 7
OWN 12
+8
93.5%
TEAM punt blocked by Jordyn Peters blocked by Jordyn Peters K.J. Britt return for 11 yds to the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14TD
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:1994% → 97%
Q2 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
93.6%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (Jarrett Stidham) to the Ark 14Similar
Q2 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
93.6%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd to the Ark 13Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+4
93.6%
Anthony Schwartz run for 4 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+6
93.4%
Stidham, Jarrett pass sacked for loss of 1 yards to the ARKANSAS10 (Ramsey, Randy;TEAM;TEAM), PENALTY ARKANSAS face mask (Ramsey, Randy) 6 yards to the ARKANSAS4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM.Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the Ark 4Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.5%
Jarrett Stidham run for 4 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:404% → 4%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.6%
Ty Storey run for 9 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+16
95.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
50
0
94.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
50
0
95.2%
Ty Storey run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+67
96.0%
Ty Storey pass intercepted Javaris Davis return for 57 yds to the Ark 0 AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Ark 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16DOWNS
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+50
96.8%
Anders Carlson 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4496% → 96%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
96.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kam Martin for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
95.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
95.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kam Martin for 3 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+13
95.6%
Arryn Siposs punt for 50 yds , Deon Stewart returns for 13 yds to the Ark 45 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryan Pulley) to the Ark 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 3:394% → 5%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+45
96.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 45 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
95.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
95.2%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Grayson Gunter, broken up by Javaris DavisSimilar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+4
95.6%
Ty Storey run for 4 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+2
95.6%
Cole Kelley run for 2 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
95.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for 11 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
95.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 14Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
95.4%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Michael WoodsSimilar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+3
95.8%
Ty Storey run for 3 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
94.7%
Connor Limpert 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:422% → 2%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
98.3%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
98.4%
Ty Storey run for 11 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
98.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ryan Davis at the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3599% → 99%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
98.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
98.6%
Jarrett Stidham run for 3 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
98.6%
Arryn Siposs punt for 60 yds, downed at the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:512% → 1%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
98.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+6
98.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 6 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 1
OWN 18
0
98.6%
Cole Kelley run for no gain to the Ark 18Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
98.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:3499% → 99%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.2%
Jarrett Stidham run for 1 yd to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+10
99.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Seth Williams for 10 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
99.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 8 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+2
99.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Sal Cannella for 2 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
99.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-9
99.4%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Randy Ramsey for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 0:47
4TH & 19
OPP 48
0
99.4%
Arryn Siposs punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Ark 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:231% → 1%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
99.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 8Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+8
99.2%
Ty Storey run for 8 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+5
99.2%
Storey, Ty pass incomplete to Boyd, Rakeem, PENALTY AUBURN offside (Bryant, Big Kat) 5 yards to the ARKANSAS21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.2%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+33
99.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 33 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.1%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Michael WoodsSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+17
99.2%
Ty Storey run for 17 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
99.0%
Chase Hayden run for 1 yd to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
99.0%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jeremy PattonSimilar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
99.2%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:43100% → 100%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
99.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 27Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+12
99.6%
Kam Martin run for 12 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
99.6%
Kam Martin run for 7 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
99.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+14
99.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 14 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
99.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 12 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
99.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 13 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 15 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Maleek Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
100.0%
Maleek Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-13
100.0%
Ty Storey sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 13 yards to the Ark 12 Ty Storey fumbled, forced by Richard Jibunor, recovered by ArkSimilar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 23
OWN 12
+36
100.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 39 yds , Ryan Davis returns for 36 yds to the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 27FG
5 plays · -10 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
100.0%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Ark 14Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
100.0%
Shaun Shivers run for no gain to the Ark 14Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 9
OPP 14
-5
100.0%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Jack Driscoll) to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 14
OPP 19
-6
100.0%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by McTelvin Agim for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 20
OPP 25
+43
100.0%
Anders Carlson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:260% → 0%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
100.0%
Storey, Ty pass complete to Jones, Jordan for 8 yards to the ARKANSAS33, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Cornelius, Jared) 12 yards to the ARKANSAS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+3
100.0%
Ty Storey run for 3 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+13
100.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Michael Woods for 13 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-6
100.0%
Ty Storey sacked by Smoke Monday for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ryan Davis at the Aub 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:05
Connor Limpert kickoff for 61 yds , Noah Igbinoghene return for 96 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
+3.7
TD · Q2 0:49
Jarrett Stidham run for 4 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
+3
FG · Q3 9:19
Connor Limpert 29 yd FG GOOD
-1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com